Thursday, October 11, 2012

McCaskill Releases New Ads

These new McCaskill commercials are serious.  They won’t be lost in the blur of political ads.


There are three different versions, each featuring woman who is a rape or sexual assault survivor, looking directly into the camera and offering their opinion of Akin’s position on emergency contraceptive.  It’s tough stuff.


See them here.


Kander On the Air

Rep. Jason Kander’s campaign announced that they’ll his TV commercial for secretary of state today during the Cardinals’ game.


The ad draws on his military service, “when you’ve had to write your blood type on your boots, you’re not afraid to make the tough calls.”  See it Here.



After what was a “very good September” of fundraising for the Kander team, they’re bumping up their buy above the $1 million ad reservation they made over the summer.



Supreme Court Panel Chosen

The Appellate Judicial Commission chose three panelists to fill the vacancy on the Missouri Supreme Court.  Governor Jay Nixon will pick the next justice. They are: Mike Manners, Paul Wilson and Stan Wallach.


The initial reviews are favorable to the choices with one judicial expert calling the panel “bullet-proof” as each of the picks are “whip-smart.”


My own clumsy and obtuse handicapping would finger Wilson as the favorite, being a former Nixon staffer.



More on Kansas Tax Cut

As a follow-up to yesterday’s Rex Sinquefield interview on the brilliance of Kansas state’s new tax cuts, one reader sent me an analysis by Mark Robyn of the Tax Foundation.


It highlights two main concerns with the new law.


First, the huge budget holes that are projected as a result. $4.5 billion over six years.   Here’s the table:


Fiscal Year      Revenue Impact ($millions)

2013                -231.2

2014                -802.8

2015                -824.3

2016                -854.2

2017                -892.9

2018                -933.7

6-yr Total        -4,539.1



Second, the incentive it will create for business restructurings to avoid taxation.


“The exemption creates an incentive for businesses to structure as pass-throughs for tax reasons, even if it might be unwise to do so for non-tax reasons... It rewards certain business structures while punishing others. There is no sound economic justification for treating these two types of business activity so dramatically differently… While favoring the pass-through structure over C corporations may lead to an increase in people employed by pass-through entities, not all these jobs are new. As discussed above, the new tax-exempt status provides a large incentive for new and existing businesses to organize as pass-throughs rather than C corporations.”



A Different Path

A different way to go at the issue of tax relief for businesses might be found in a 2011 bill filed by Sen. Eric SchmittSee it here.  It is more measured.  It avoids the problem of choosing some kinds of business structures over others; it is phased in over a five year period; and it cuts the tax in half rather than Kansas’ total elimination.



The Energy Agenda

The other economic development issue folks are waiting on is the application by Ameren and Westinghouse to the Department of Energy to produce mini-nuclear reactors, commonly called SMRs (small modular reactors).


While it’s a long-term play, the potential is crazy.  Here’s the best guess math: the reactors could sell for between $500 million and $2 billion apiece.  So take the mid-point there of $1 billion.


Then as a dartboard shot at the possible global market, there are 220 “traditional” nuclear power plants being built or planning today.  If you replaced all of those with SMRs (which are forecast to be less expensive to build and operate and less cost), that would be 1,100 SMRs!


1,000 SMRs at $1 billion a pop, and boom! You’d be imagining a $1 trillion dollar industry over the next thirty or forty years.


Missouri’s part in this big future – if it comes to pass – might be to have some manufacturing facility and training center for the workers.  But one would guess Westinghouse would seek some accommodations from the legislature before making the investment.




All of this thinking big is contingent on the Ameren-Westinghouse proposal winning grant funds from the DOE…



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Michael A Dallmeyer deleted TIAA-CREF and R.L. Polk & Company; and added Carfax.

Lana Ladd Baker deleted Comprehensive Neuroscience, Poplar Bluff Regional Medical Center, Infocrossing, Stowers Institute for Medical Research, and Autism Speaks.

Jennifer Poersch deleted Dynamic Fitness Management.

Jason Ramsey deleted Office of the State Treasurer.

Mike Zumwinkle deleted Cargill.



$5K+ Contributions

MO Democratic Campaign Committee - $12,700 from Committee to Elect Jeff Roorda.

Citizens for Vicki Englund - $13,274 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $20,000 from Friends of Melissa Leach.

Montee for Missouri - $10,000 from Midwest Region Laborers Political League Education Fund.

Lembke for Senate - $7,500 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Teamsters Local Union 541 Political Action Fund Drive - $15,000 from Drive Committee.

Spence for Governor - $10,000 from CNS Corporation.

Missouri’s Future - $14,000 from Davis, Bethune & Jones LLC.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $15,296 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Lewis & Clark Council Ozarks Mountain Forum.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Rudolph Farber.

Missouri Health Care Association PAC - $40,000 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $6,762 from AFSCME Council 72.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $20,000 from Michael Ketchmark.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $20,000 from Kirk Holman.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund.

Integrity in Law Enforcement - $65,000 from A Safer Missouri.




Happy birthdays to Rep. Jeanne Kirkton (59) and MO Budget’s Jay Hardenbrook.




To Rep. Shane Schoeller on the passing of his mother, Mrs. Donna Lipe.  Lipe “passed away this afternoon after a courageous three-day fight following cardiac arrest on Sunday.”