Thursday, October 25, 2012

Money Race

Today is that last day for reports that will be filed on Monday – the 8 Day Reports. We’re beyond the expectations games now.   And the money is being deployed at a rapid rate, so there won’t be a ton of information coming out of those reports.  They’ll basically be showing the candidates’ fundraising in the month of October.


Today in the large checks there are several significant items…


First, Dave Spence continues to invest in his campaign.  Rumors have the race tightening (and hence Nixon’s clutching fast to his own stash instead of spreading the wealth.  Spence may feel that with a little extra fuel he can make magic happen.


Second, Cole McNary lands a big fish! $100K from David Humphreys, and an additional $25K from Ethelmae Humphreys.  It’s intriguing that Humphreys after sitting on their hands on this race for the last three months enter with less than two weeks left, when it’s really too late to matter a whole lot.


Third, House Republican Campaign Committee is sending serious cash into battleground districts… $25K into House 5 (Lindell Shumake and Tom Shively); $60K into House 44 (Caleb Rowden and Ken Jacob); $38K into House 97 (John McCaherty and Sam Komo); $70K into House 132 (Melissa Leash and Charlie Norr); and $25K into House 143 (Jeff Pogue and Shane Van Steenis).



Tea Party Cat Fight

Dana Loesch posted on Facebook her feelings about Dr. Gina Loudon visiting Missouri… “Laughing my backside off that a johnny-come-lately pretend tea partier is ‘coming back’ to Missouri to help Akin after she refused to support him in the primary because Akin wouldn't fire Ryan Hite, his communications director. Hite didn't support her in a past state race and she's still sore over it and vengeful. This ‘tea partier’ paraded Akin's opponent around CPAC during the primary and trashed Akin online and at CPAC. Now, when it looks politically advantageous, she comes back acting as though she supported him the entire time. Don't play or I'll expose you for the fake you are. Again. And you'll have to leave MO. Again.”


In case it was unclear who she was talking about, Loesch added in the comments, “Their last name rhymes with Schmoudon.”



New Ads

In Senate 3, Joe Fallert’s campaign has produced a local-tech biographical ad highlighting his work ethic and family values.    See it here.



In AG race, Ed Martin seeks contributions to run a new ad highlighting “allegations” against Chris Koster that he money laundered and had “disturbing ties” to an FBI investigation.  See it here.



The Anti-Amendment 3 forces released their television commercial.  They call the Missouri Plan “a model for the nation” and warns that Amenment 3 would “tip the scales of justice” toward special interests.  See it here.



Un-riddling The Statewide Paradox

There’s been a perplexing paradox for political observers this cycle.  Republicans are forecast to maintain their dominance in both the Senate and House.  The may give up a couple seats in each chamber, but they may also gain some seats in the House depending how the ball bounces.  Regardless they’ll end up with roughly 65%-70% of the legislative seats in Missouri.


Meanwhile most people believe that Democrats are poised to win the majority of the statewide races.  Akin obviously has taken on water since winning the primary.  Nixon’s lead against Spence may have narrowed, but still looks comfortable by the polls.  Koster and Zweifel have lapped their challengers in money.  The two who may win – Schoeller and Kinder – are not sure bets, as both face vigorous opponents.


What accounts for the Democrats inability to compete at the legislative level, and yet succeed at the statewide level?


As with everything in the real world, there are probably any factors.  Here are some I hear when people talk about this.


First, the power of incumbency to raise money perpetuates status quo.  Republicans’ control of the legislature, the committee chairs and legislative flow allow their leadership, candidates and campaign committees to raise exponentially more money than their Democratic counterparts.  On the other hand, the incumbent governor, attorney general and treasurer have a similar advantage over their challengers.


Second, the maps are critical to the destiny of the legislature.  This redistricting process ended with status quo maps.  And since we entered the process with Republican majorities, those are the districts enshrined by the new maps.  So whereas the statewide races are a state that can tilt back and forth (heavy Dem in 2008, heavy GOP in 2010), the maps maintain a Republican hold on the legislature.


Third, Republican statewide candidates were tormented by primaries this cycle.  Perhaps as a result of term limits and their legislative dominance – all those legislators need to go somewhere – Republicans had serous primaries in the US Senate, LG and SOS races.  And even Dave Spence had to swat away a few right-side opponents.  More importantly here though, in all the cases except Spence (where he had a huge resource advantage) the primary process was not particularly helpful to Republican.  Akin was clearly the weakest candidate.  Kinder and Schoeller appeared to still be paying off primary debts a full six weeks after the primary.


The next cycle may different.  Even if they win, the governor and treasurer face term limits themselves which would lessen the power of incumbency in 2016.  And Republicans, stung by the primaries this year, may show greater coordination in the future.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Samuel G Licklider deleted Missouri State Chiropractors Association.



$5K+ Contributions

Schoeller for Missouri - $10,000 from William Holekamp.

Schoeller for Missouri - $25,000 from RSLC Missouri PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $11,400 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $15,000 from Friends of Cloria Brown.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $25,000 from Citizens for Riddle.

Missouri’s Future - $14,200 from Bartimus Frickleton Robertson and Gorny.

Missouri’s Future - $10,950 from Brown & Crouppen P.C.

Missouri’s Future - $11,250 from Dollar, Burns & Becker L.C.

Missouri’s Future - $6,300 from Langdon & Emison.

Lembke for Senate - $32,000 from Missouri Republican Party.

Friends of Caleb Rowden - $60,098 from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Ken McClain.

Missourians for Health and Education - $400,000 from Health Care Foundation of Greater KC.

Friends of Melissa Leach - $69940 from House Republican Committee Inc.

Missourians With Jeffrey Pogue - $25,429 from HRCC.

Spence for Governor - $500,000 from David Spence.

Freedom Incorporated - $10,000 from Progress KC Committee.

RSLC-Missouri PAC – Republican State Leadership Committee.

Friends to Elect Cole McNary - $100,000 from David Humphreys.

Friends to Elect Cole McNary - $25,000 from Ethylmae Humphreys.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $48,813 from Missouri Republican Party.

Friends to Elect Cole McNary - $10,000 from Citizens for Diehl.

Citizens for Our Library and Our Community - $10,000 from Schnuck Markets Inc.

Shumake for State Representative Committee - $25,731 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Citizens for McCaherty - $6,506 from House Republican House Committee.

Citizens for McCaherty - $31,847 from House Republican House Committee.