Thursday, October 4, 2012



Yesterday two polls came out echoing Sen. Claire McCaskill’s internal poll showing her opening a nice lead against Congressman Todd Akin.   Public Policy Polling has McCaskill ahead 46% to 40%. See it here.  And Rasmussen puts her at 51% to Akin’s 45%.


Then McCaskill preannounced her third quarter haul of $5.8 million.  That’s incredible given the federal limits.  And it shows the national pull of Akin’s various comments.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he does one tenth of that.


Finally Akin’s campaign stood behind his comments that doctors were performing abortions on women who weren’t pregnant.  See Beacon article here.  (By the way, “double down” is this cycle catch phrase in case you didn’t know.)



I think the character Ed Rooney in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off put it best… “Les jeux sont faits.  Translation: the game is up.”



Nixon Still Strong

That Rasmussen poll also had a follow-on question about job approval of Jay Nixon.  The negative commercials from Dave Spence haven’t dented it yet.  Nixon’s approval still at a high  59%.



Kander to Schoeller: J’Accuse!

Attempting to create an October surprise requires the discipline to wait until October.  You can just see them watching the calendar…  After the positive commercials to establish Kander, this looks to be the hit.


From the press release:

Jason Kander today called on Rep. Shane Schoeller to explain to Missourians how his family business’s ownership of the Nixa fee office at the same time he was serving in the legislature does not violate Missouri’s conflict of interest laws.


The Schoeller Group managed the fee office in Nixa from 2006 until 2010. According to publicly available documents, The Schoeller Group continued to manage the Nixa fee office after Representative Schoeller was sworn into office in 2007, which appears to violate RSMO 105.456. When the process of awarding fee offices was opened up to competition instead of cronysim, The Schoeller Group lost the contract…


From all the publicly available documents, it appears that The Schoeller Group improperly managed the Nixa fee office from 2007-2010. I am calling on Representative Schoeller to release all of the documents relating to the fee office so Missourians can determine if The Schoeller Group’s management of the fee office violated state law.


The Schoeller Group L.L.C., which was founded by Representative Schoeller and is now owned by his wife, Mendie Giles Schoeller, was awarded the Nixa Contract Office by Governor Matt Blunt - Schoeller's former boss - without a competitive bidding process in 2005. Representative Schoeller ran for and won a seat in the Missouri General Assembly in 2006, entering office on January 3, 2007…



State Senate Bits

Senate 3 – Republicans feel better and better about this race.  Their candidate Gary Romine has run a General Election campaign from the start.  Both in his message – his positions fit the district – and his efforts, he’s had an eye on November for the last six months.  Romine knocked both Democratic and Republican doors for example during the primary. Meanwhile Republicans cheer what they say was a lost six months by Democratic Joe Fallert who didn’t do much campaign during those months.
Senate 17 – Remember Don Lograsso, former state representative and general counsel to the House?  He’s said to be advising the Ryan Silvey campaign…  Old hands never die, they just lose their grip?



Senate 25 – The best Democratic state senate candidate of the cycle is Rep. Terry Swinger.  Yet, this one also seems to be escaping Democrats.  The bootheel area of the state is perfect for a Democrat like Swinger, but not so perfect for a Democrat like Barack Obama.  Republicans think Obama may lose some of those counties by 20 points.  And they don’t think Swinger – as good a candidate as he is – will be able to overcome that drag.



Wildcard MATA – One potential bright spot for Democrats was the announcement earlier this week that the forces against the court plan are abandoning their efforts.  That should allow some trial attorney money to be rerouted into the competitive state senate races, and shore up some fundraising.



Tweet of the Day

@LydaKrewson: Wow- Dir of Mission for Stl Archdiocese just said 'Mormons-1;

Indonesians-0' on FB. #shameful. #notaxbreak.



eMailbag: Where’s Schaefer’s Poll?

“Re: the Romine poll, does anyone find it odd that we have not seen a Kurt Schaefer poll, particularly in light of Still so publicly releasing her numbers?  He must have numbers similar to hers… Looks like she and Sifton are Dems only chances to pick up a seat.”



$5K+ Contributions

Kander for Missouri - $10,000 from SEIU HealthCare Missouri PAC.

Putting Kids First in Boone County - $12,500 from Burrell Behavioral Health.

Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $5,012 from Adam Leigh.

Missouri and for Health and Education - $75,000 from Tobacco-Free Kids Action Fund.

Citizens for Dan E Smith - $5,025 from Dempsey for Senate.

Citizens for Vicki Lorenz Englund - $6,310 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.




Happy birthdays to Rep. Jerry Nolte (57), and Randy Asbury (54).