Tuesday, Election Day, November 6, 2012

The Day

Anecdotal reports from across the state have long lines.  Energy is high even without a compelling presidential race.


Feel free to follow me on twitter as I may post things throughout the day.  I’m here.  There may be more bits like these I posted this morning…


Trouble in St. Louis County? Friend of mine talking with Bob Burns candidate for House 93 says Burns was handed wrong ballot.


Burns, trying to vote for himself, found Genise Monticello's district on his ballot instead...


Pretty sure that area is part of highly competitive Senate 1 race, might add a twist there.



And this…

John Kavanaugh passed away last night. He seemed fearless to me, the way he followed his conscience wherever it went. http://www.americamagazine.org/content/article.cfm?article_id=13468




It’s also not a terrible thing to ignore it all until tonight or even tomorrow morning.



Speaking of Tomorrow

I plan to have a quick analysis early in the morning.  A follow-up analysis later in the day, and at some point I hope to have a big report out – New Legislators.  It will have biographical information and contact information for all the incoming legislators.




17 State Senate races and 163 House Races will keep your eyeballs busy tonight.  Here are the one to watch…


State Senate

The hot battleground is Senate 1.  It’s a toss-up between incumbent Jim Lembke and Democratic challenger Scott Sifton.  Dems best chance at a pick-up.  Trial attorneys came in heavy against Lembke.


If Dems catch some wind there are four others which have districts that are Democratic and could create surprises.  Senate 3 is Kevin Engler’s old seat.  Senate 17 where Republican Rep. Ryan Silvey has built lots of crossover support.   Senate 19 is the battle royale in Mid-MO.  Appropriations Chair Kurt Schaefer expected to hold against Rep. Mary Still.  And Senate 25 where Dems hope their candidate Rep. Terry Swinger will upset businessman Doug Libla, but Obama’s unpopularity in the bootheel creates heavy headwind.  I forecast Republicans to hold all of these, but voters may have other ideas…


State House

In the Northeast two tight races are House 5 where incumbents Rep. Lindell Shumake and Tom Shively were drawn together in a redistricting death-match, and House 40.  That’s where Rep. Paul Quinn is running for his fourth term, but in a vastly different district, again because of redistricting.  I have Quinn holding on, but Republicans think Jim Hansen could pull it off.


In the Western side of the state, Republican incumbents Noel Torpey and Brent Lasater are running for reelection in very solid Democratic districts.  If they both hold, it’ll signal that Dems missed serious opportunities.  If they both fall, it may mean that we’ve seen the high-water mark for Republicans.


In the state’s Southwest corner Democrats have poured resources into House 135 where Democrat Casey Clark is trying to upset Rep. Lincoln Hough who has a harder district than he did two years ago.  I have Hough holding, but given the Dems effort they appear to have better information than me.  And in House 132 incumbent Rep. Melissa Leach is facing a tough challenge from former Rep., Democrat Charlie Norr.


In Mid-Missouri, the marquee race is House 44 where veteran Ken Jacob is plotting a return and Republicans are buffeting newcomer Caleb Rowden to stop him.  I have Rowden winning, but low confidence in that prediction.


St. Louis County holds a few possibilities for Democrats.  Watch House 70 where Democrat Bill Otto is trying to beat out Eugene Dokes, and House 94 where former Rep. Vicki Englund is trying to oust Republican Rep. Cloria Brown.   The House Republican Campaign Committee goes to extremes to protect incumbents, so Englund has a harder road than Otto.


Jefferson County is the big dog this cycle.  Will Democrats swept out two years ago return.  That’s the question for House 97 (Sam Komo), House 111 (Mike Frame), and House 113 (Jeff Roorda)  Add in House 114 where TJ McKenna is running and this may be the most critical part of the state for Democratic hopes.




As a reminder, my final cheat sheet can be found here.



Trivia Question Answer

If Jason Kander wins the secretary of state race, he will be the first combat veteran since…


The answer (from my wonkiest reader):

1980 – elected Lt. Gov. Kenny Rothman was stationed with the Air National Guard in France during the 1961-62 Berlin Crisis.


1953-1976 – US Senator Stuart Symington was a World War I enlistee but don’t think any combat, though later US Secretary of the Air Force.


1965-1973 – Missouri Governor Warren Hearnes was a World War II West Point grad who served with the 140th Infantry at Fort Sheridan, Illinois; Camp Robinson, Arkansas; and in Puerto Rico.


So, I think the winner is... 1968 elected Lt. Gov. William Morris, a World War II Silver Star and Bronze Star recipient.




Happy birthday to Rep. Keith Frederick (60).