Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Rex, T-Jones and the Land of Giant Checks

In the large contributions list (below), donorsaurus Rex Sinquefield sent $100,000 to Speaker Tim Jones yesterday.


Sinquefield has contributed $400,000 to Rep. Shane Schoeller’s secretary of state campaign.  And he’s written $260,000 worth of checks to Attorney General Chris Koster.  The difference here is that Jones isn’t running statewide, and doesn’t even have an opponent.


What it Means

The speaker has been tested and found worthy by the Rex Complex.  In case there was any doubt, this is an alliance we could see for the next several years.


For Sinquefield, it means that the speaker is comfortable with the Sinquefield free-market world view.  It means the House may seek the kinds of income tax cuts and education reforms that Sinquefield has argued would bolster economic activity in Missouri.


For Jones, it means that largest donor in the state (see below) will be a patron of the House’s aggressive campaign plans, but also of Jones’ future political ambitions after his tenure in the House has been completed.



The mighty Jason Rosenbaum calculates that Sinquefield is still the tops when it comes to campaign contributions.  Read it here.



HDCC Can’t Target Like HRCC

House Republicans prolific fundraising have continued the tradition of their campaign war-chest vastly outmatching their Democratic counterpart.


At the beginning of September, HRCC had $1 million more in the bank than HDCC.  The October quarterly numbers – due next week – will likely show $1+ million raised.


This disparity means that Republicans will win many of the close races simply due to funds.  But it also means something more fundamental.  Democrats will have a much harder time even finding the close races.


Last cycle HRCC spent about $275K on polling alone.  They were then able to deploy their $2 million-ish resources with some accuracy.  They took 17 seats in 2010.


This cycle Republicans say that only 40 or so of the 163 districts are 100% out of reach.  In most districts they have some reason to think they could be competitive – a good candidate, strong voter index profile, a particularly unpopular president etc.  With their exhaustive polling, they are more likely to find the best bet down the stretch while Democrats must operate in a comparative darkness.


Over at the House Democratic Campaign Committee, ED Jody Murphy gets good reviews.  But the simple fact is that he’s massively out-gunned on resources.



Gov’nr Can You Spare A Dime?

Governor Jay Nixon has raised over $12 million this cycle, and I have yet to see a poll in which he’s behind, or hear from someone who doesn’t think he has a double-digit lead.


And yet if you scan through his campaign finance reports there have been no contributions to Democratic candidates.  Only an in-kind of a few thousand dollars to Clint Zweifel near the beginning of the year.


There is money to the Missouri Democratic State Party, but that appears to be mostly covering the health insurance and benefits costs of the Nixon campaign employees.


If Republicans pick up three seats and gain a veto-proof majority while Nixon coasts to a comfortable victory, Dems will gnash their teeth.  The funny thing is that I’m not sure Nixon would really care.



Spence to Nixon: Stop Lying About My Record

Dave Spence sends a “cease-and desist” letter to TV stations asking them to stop running Nixon’s attack ads saying that he is a St. Louis banker who ran a bank “into the ground.”  Read the letter here.


And he released an ad along the same lines with a pivot to the jobs issue.  “Jay Nixon’s not just lying about me, he’s lying about his record…”  See here.




Washington Post says no “wave” election.  Read it here.



Obama pokes Romney on Big Bird.  See it here.



$5K+ Contributions

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $7,500 from Noranda Aluminum Inc.

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $6,000 from SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council.

Missouri’s Future - $21,500 from Baritmus Frickleton Robertson Gorny.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $13,000 from Baritmus Frickleton Robertson Gorny.

Citizens for Timothy Jones - $100,000 from Rex A Sinquefield.

Citizens for Timothy Jones - $8,000 from Altria Client Services Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $20,000 from Citizens For Neely.

Missourians for Health and Education - $9,000 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

Montee for Missouri - $6,000 from Sheet Metal Workers International Association Local union No. 36.