Wednesday, August 29, 2012

In New Ad, McCaskill Ad Tiptoes Away from Obama

“Claire’s never afraid to stand up to anyone including the president on cap and trade, anti-business regulations and the Keystone pipeline.”   See it here.



Akin Extends Ad Buy

It looks like Todd Akin’s campaign extended their television ad buy into September.  See a revised contract here.



See a cancelled Crossroad contract here.  The list of spots is much longer than the Akin buy…


What This Means

Akin has to keep spending what he’s bringing in hopes of closing the new gap in the polls and therefore keeping donors from giving up on him.  Meanwhile he’s pursuing earned media (risky given his previous missteps), but the problem is that most of these interviews are dwelling on “rape-gate,” and asking him if he’s dropping out.  See last night’s KSDK interview here.

Susan B Anthony List says there’s coming in with an anti-abortion ad to aid Akin.  See the Politico article here.  What he really needs more is a change of subject.  No evidence of the buy yet in the online databases that I could find.



Akin Email Pitch

Subject: The people, or the party bosses?

Sent: Aug 29, 2012 6:06 AM


Friend, Party bosses and the Washington elite always seem to want to take the easy way out. The federal budget is a great example - insiders keep folks happy by making sure everyone has a little something. Those same party bosses and DC insiders have turned their backs on our campaign. But the people of Missouri and folks across this nation said, "Not so fast!" We have received an outpouring of support from people just like you who are saying "No" to the party bosses, and saying "Yes!" to our campaign - a campaign centered on protecting life, taking back the Senate, and defeating one of Barack Obama and Harry Reid's top allies, liberal Senator Claire McCaskill. The case against Claire McCaskill is clear. You can click here to learn more:


The Party Bosses won't help us take back the Senate. Will you? Can you chip in $5 today to help defeat Claire McCaskill? Your help can mean the difference between leaving someone in the Senate to advance the Obama-Reid-Pelosi agenda, or replacing them with a conservative Republican who represents your values. Claire McCaskill joined with Obama-Reid-Pelosi to push the failed stimulus. To pass Obamacare. To explode our debt. To help Planned Parenthood. To raid Medicare. Just like her liberal cohorts, Claire McCaskill is on the wrong side of the issues that matter. Support from grassroots leaders such as yourself will mean the difference in whether we take back the Senate or not. It will mean the difference in whether we continue down a reckless road of more spending and more debt, or whether we begin the process of getting our nation back on track! Please chip in on our campaign today!


Sincerely, Todd



Akin Putting the Hurt on Suburban Women?

The Akin contagion that could hurt Republicans in state House and state Senate races is with suburban women who are turned off by his insensitive remarks.  Akin reinforces the Democratic narrative of a “war on women” which has been bubbling up all year, but had its last peak during the Rush Limbaugh statue affair.



Talk from the Convention

Huckabee Getting Wise?

There’s hope among the rumor-mill that Mike Huckabee would understand the gravity of the situation and prevail upon his friend to find an honorable exit.  Besides Akin’s wife, Huckabee is considered one of the few influencers of the congressman.



One delegate says that the behind the scene jockeying to replace Akin continues, and most insiders want a woman to help deflect the “war on women” narrative.  Those names: Ann Wagner, Jo Ann Emerson, Vicky Hartzler and Catherine Hanaway.  The only non-woman mentioned is John Brunner who placed second in the primary.


St. Louis Should Go For It

Missouri Republicans are impressed with the massive scale of the convention and omnipresent security, but think St. Louis could pull it off and renew their efforts for a national convention in 2016.



Crancer Consults New Senate Majority Fund

Kit Crancer has been tapped as the consultant for the Senate Republican’s campaign committee, Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, formerly known as the Majority Fund.


Crancer has worked on many campaigns.  His state senate resume includes some tough ones like Jim Lembke and John Lamping.  He’s worked as a legislative assistant for both Lembke and most recently Sen. Jane Cunningham.


Last cycle the Majority Fund was heavily involved in some Republican primaries, creating a backlash and ultimately the resignation of consultant David Barklage who helped the Republicans reach their historic majority in that chamber.


Crancer is in the unenviable position of having to defend the high-water mark with no easy Democratic targets available.


This cycle Republicans are on the defense in Senate 1 (Lembke), Senate 3 (old Engler seat), Senate 19 (Schaefer), and Senate 25 (old Mayer seat), and have already lost Senate 7 (old Cunningham seat moved to Kansas City) due to redistricting.




West-side Dems to raise money for Rep. Fallert, running in Senate 3.  See invite here.



Struggling districts gaming the timing of tests to show “improvement?” Post-Dispatch article suggests that’s the case. Read it here.



Peter Kinder prevailed on his latest anti-Obamacare front, challenging and overturning Robin Carnahan’s language for November’s ballot initiative.  Read it here.


$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Health and Education – $38,538 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

Missourians for Health and Education – $18,630 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

Missourians for Health and Education – $48,467 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

Missourians for Health and Education – $20,213 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $6,000 from Neagler Oil Co.

Missourians for Ed Martin - $5,100 from Missourians for Matt Blunt.

Doug Libla for Senate - $5,005 from Citizens to Elect Mike Kehoe.

Citizens for Timothy W Jones - $15,000 from Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Fund.




Happy birthdays to AGC’s Jack Atterberry.