Monday, February 6, 2012

Lampe Jumps In

Rep. Sara Lampe is set to formally announce she’s entering the lieutenant governor’s race this morning.


Immediate response from my sources was skeptical that there’s any path for her to wrest the nomination from Susan Montee or Judy Baker (or Becky Plattner).


Lampe is well-liked among House Dems, but it’s hard to see how she competes statewide.  She has $5K on-hand, and in her last state representative race, she raised $100K.  It’s a different beats to run statewide.  Montee has that experience and Baker has commensurate experience with her congressional.


Furthermore, her entry almost guarantees a male Dem (probably a rural conservative) comes in and cleans up.  We will see…




One analysis from the 2010 cycle shows that Montee may be most popular than Lampe in her own district.  “Susan Montee won her race in this district (House 138) with 51.49% of the vote with raw votes of 4,538. Sara Lampe followed with a 48.14% margin and raw votes of 4,295. Robin Carnahan received 45.59% of the vote for a total of 4,089 raw votes.”



Judy Baker’s “Inauspicious” Start

One subscriber notes Judy Baker’s first email blast with a note: “I'm unaligned in the lt gov race and I like Judy Baker personally. But below is an inauspicious first campaign blast mail, note the screwy layout.”



Dear Friend,

In recent weeks, I’ve been encouraged by countless friends and neighbors to run for Lt. Governor.  Many share my frustration that we’re getting too little leadership and too much politics from some of the current elected officials in Jefferson City.


As you've probably heard by now, I've decided to take on this challenge and run.


The current Lt. Governor already has more than a million dollars in the bank, so I will I will need resources to compete and get my message out to Missourians.


Can you help with a contribution today?


Since my days in seminary, I’ve seen public service as a mission, a calling–a way to serve by working toward solutions that will improve the lives of Missourians.  And if I’m given the privilege to serve as Lt. Governor, I pledge to work to toward those solutions every single day…



Senate Playbook

Moving the employment discrimination bill in the first week of February is seen as a signal that the Senate is attempting to move its own priority bill out of the chamber before spring break.


With the budget and the education tangle (Turner, foundation fix, reformers) expected to take a huge amount of time in the second half, everything will be susceptible to falling victim to that pile-up unless its passed early.

Revenues, Leadership Weak

Last week the Office of Administration released its January numbers.  And while revenue is positive, it remains very sluggish.


January 2012 was 2% above January 2011; and the fiscal year to date number is 1.3% ahead of the previous year.


These numbers bolster the case of those arguing that the state’s budget shortfall is the result of a “structural gap” which is not easily remedied through the upswing of the business cycle.  In this view, the year by year solving each budget as if it’s a math problem of its own is misguided.  The resulting continuous cuts and slices are creating an atrophy by path of political least resistance.


Rather there needs to an infusion of leadership.  And a tax must be increase, or specific programs should be simply eliminated from the state’s portfolio of services.




Sen. Claire McCaskill makes a cameo in this NY Times piece on the #2 at Facebook.  Read it Here.



The circuit court upheld the congressional redistricting map, dealing a serious blow to opponents.  They will presumably appeal (again) to the state supreme court, but the ball of yarn is running thin.



Last week’s press release from the AG’s office highlighted Chris Koster filing suit against a construction company in Joplin for fraud.  According to one source, Joplin remains a hotbed for fraud right now that occupied a fair amount of the AG’s attention.  Source: “Charity based fraud (in Joplin) is absolutely out of the control and the AG’s office has permanent staff down there just rotating in and out.”



Jotte Loans Self $100K

Randy Jotte, running in the 2nd Congressional District where Ed Martin just exited, loaned himself $100,000.  According to his FEC filing that brings his cash on-hand to $133K.  He faces Ann Wagner in the Republican primary who has a massive cash advantage, huge organizational lead and a blanket of endorsements.




On the Future of Senate Redistricting

“I disagree with your sources who say the MO Senate redistricting will land in federal court.  I seriously doubt a federal court will do anything while the process mandated by the state constitution plays out. Those who suggest otherwise have not been paying close enough attention to the US Supreme Court.”



Correction on Hall’s Status

Jason Hall did not receive the life-time ban.  He resigned, thus there was no nomination to withdraw and no rescinding request for Senate consideration.  He has been named Deputy Director at DED.



$5K+ Contributions

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $10,000 from Anthony Keele.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $6,250 from Committee to Elect Tom Flanigan.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Noranda Aluminum Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Bank of America Missouri PAC

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Brown & Crouppen PC.