Monday, January 9, 2012

The Case for Nasheed

It’s never easy to beat an incumbent, but Rep. Jamilah Nasheed has fair shot to take out Sen. Robin Wright Jones in Senate 5.

There are multiple scenarios.  In a head-to-head race, Jones would win the south-side  She’s a known commodity having represented the area for the last four years.  Nasheed would have to overwhelm the white vote with the superior black numbers in the district.

More likely, a third – white – candidate will enter.  Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford is a possibility, but if she declines, another white candidate may take her place.  And this hypothetical third candidate, in addition to being white, would also be more conservative than Jones or Nasheed, playing to the south St Louis base.

If a conservative, white candidate takes the south side away from Jones, she might become – in St. Louis parlance – “Harmonized,” referring to Mayor Clarence Harmon who without a racial base only garnered 5% of the vote in his reelection race against black Freeman Bosley Jr. and white Francis Slay.  In this scenario Nasheed could be the beneficiary of a favorable three-way split.

The district, according to my numbers, is a two-thirds black.  However that number falls to 57% when adjusting for voting age population.

Therefore the path for Nasheed in either a two-way or three-way race is to dominate the black vote.

Scooplettes

Montee Money

Word is that Susan Montee will show a little over $100k for her January quarter with over 200 donors on the report.  That’s better than I’d been expecting.  It was said to be a slow start between stepping down from the state party and tidying up her legal work.  However six digits is enough now to force Judy Baker to make sure she has donors on-board before jumping.  We’ll see…

Back to the First Floor…

Speaker Steve Tilley offered Rep. Mike Brown a plush third floor office with easy access to the House floor not unlike the similar spoils enjoyed by Reps. Jamilah Nasheed and Penny Hubbard.  It’s one of the perks that the majority party can use to woo friendly relations with members of the minority party.  However the Democratic caucus adopted new rules last session forbidding its members from accepting such gifts.  And Brown, apparently fearful that he could face some sanction from his caucus, turned down the office.  That’s a good sign for Dem unity heading into session.

Incenting Wings and a Halo

Majority Leader Tim Jones and Minority Leader Mike Talboy are expected to join forces to pass a new tax credit for angel investors.  Jones will sponsor the bill and Talboy will co-sponsor, giving it the bipartisan imprimatur.  Read Summary of Kansas’ angel investing legislation Here to see what we’re competing against.

While the Jones-Talboy alliance assures swift passage in the House, one assumes that Sen. Jason Crowell will block it in the Senate.  He had for several sessions now opposed new tax credit programs in the absence of “global” tax credit reform.

Ridgeway to Join Lager and Kinder

Sen. Luann Ridgeway tells Bob Priddy “I believe that an announcement will be coming about pursuing lieutenant governor… I believe that there is a lot of things that I can offer in that position to the people of the state…”  Hear it Here.

This is a boast to Peter Kinder, as Ridgeway is more likely to draw votes away from Lager.

Lembke Hits $100K On-Hand

In Senate 1, Sen. Jim Lembke raised $42,194 and has $102,368.  That’s solid enough, and given his slightly better map, I’ll be watching for Sue Schoemehl’s quarter to see if Dems are really going to make a run at it.  Schoemehl had $17K on-hand at the end of the October quarter.

2010 Watch

Former Democratic state representative Sam Komo sent out a press release this morning declaring himself a candidate for the new House 97.  That’d be a rematch with Rep. John McCaherty who nabbed the seat from Komo in 2010 with 49.1% (to Komo’s 46.6%).  Attached to Komo’s release is a “landscape of the district” memo highlighting the fact that the new district has tilted a few more points into Democratic territory, now pegged at a 54.4 DPI.

In House 115, Elaine Gannon announced her run as a Republican. It’s a solid seat with incumbent Rep. Linda Black currently residing in the district.  In other words it’s an uphill battle.  Gannon is a retired school teacher.  Her husband, Dennis, serves on the Jefferson Regional Medical Center Board of Trustees and the DeSoto Public School Board.

Rumorville

Last Impressions

From a well-placed tipster: “The governor’s office is a little ticked that SNR Denton has jumped the gun on announcing Kelvin Simmons’ hiring.  His resignation, when announced, was said to be effective Feb. 1.  And he said that he wanted to stay on state payroll through at least January 18… he has stopped coming into the office completely even though he’s still drawing a paycheck.”

Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Rhonda K Beul added Missouri Family Health Council Inc.

Posinelli Shughart added Treanor Architects P.A.

Gary McElyea added Coca-Cola Refreshments.

Earl McKennon added Pyramis Global Advisors Holding Corp.

Richard Taylor added BMWED-IBT.

Emily J Van Schenkhof added Missouri Kids First.

Sherry L Doctorian deleted Innoventor Inc.

Kent Gaines deleted Hunt Midwest Enterprises Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Civic Progress Action Committee - $7,400 from Peabody Investments Corp.

Missourians For Equal Credit Opportunity - $250,000 from Missourians for Responsible Government.

Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $5,588 from Laborers’ Supplemental Dues Fund.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $6,500 from Husch Blackwell LLP.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Anheuser-Busch Companies.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to: Rep. Caleb Jones and American Water’s Steve Murray.