Monday, March 26, 2012

Montee Gets Machinists

Dem LG candidate Susan Montee announced another labor endorsement.  This one was from the machinists as represented by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers and the Missouri State Council of Machinists.


Each labor endorsement that Montee snags amid crickets from the other campaigns solidifies her position as the frontrunner in this race.


I think there’s an increased likelihood that Rep. Sara Lampe and/or Fred Kratky withdraws from this race is their fundraising is as non-existent as it appears.


The two markers for the future of this race are Tuesday when filing closes.  It will be a major positive for Montee if no rural Democrat files.  And then April 16 when the March quarterly reports are filed.  Depending on where the other candidates fundraising is – with 3 and ½ months until the primary – this could be a two-person race (or no real race at all).



National Dems to Confront ObamaCare Head On

The greatest weakness of Dem LG candidate Judy Baker is thought to be her involvement in the federal healthcare law.


Nationally, however, Democrats have decided to face the issue head on.  Part of this, no doubt, is premised on the fact that President Barack Obama’s opponent is expected to be Mitt Romney, who’s health plan was essentially Obama’s.  Dems believe that will limit his ability to effectively attack Obama on the issue.


The weekend’s Obama fundraising email blasts

From: <>


I like Obamacare.


I'm proud of it -- and you should be, too.


Here's why: Because it works.


So if you're with me, say it: "I like Obamacare."


Obamacare means never having to worry about getting sick and running up against a lifetime cap on insurance coverage. It gives parents the comfort of knowing their kids can stay on their insurance until they're 26, and that a "pre-existing condition" like an ear infection will never compromise their child's coverage.


It's about ending the practice of letting insurance companies charge women 50 percent more -- just because they're women…



From: <>


Two years ago, the Affordable Care Act was signed into law. Even before that, folks on the other side started calling it "Obamacare."


The more we heard it, the better it started to sound: Obama. Care.


We like it -- so we decided to put it on some stuff to make sure everyone sees it…



Although this may in fact be a good national strategy for Obama, I think it hurts Missouri Dems where the referendum on that issue (Prop C) ran 70-30 against.



Holsman Files 8 Day Report

In Senate 7, there’s an early glimpse into the April quarter of Rep. Jason Holsman.  His campaign committee made a contribution to a school board candidate, so he had to file an 8-Day Report for that election cycle.  He’ll still have to file an April report, but this shows his fundraising through March 21.


Holsman raised $40,312, and now has $51,735 on-hand.  And, he has a fundraiser tonight, so there’ll likely by a significant uptick by his regular report.



Missouri Opinions from Three Decades Ago

Somehow ended up flipping through a funny little book over the weekend, Missouri Public Opinion Report 1973-1974 by David Leuthold.  Of particular interest was how the “right to work” question depended on framing.



November-December 1974

Which of the following statements do you think is most accurate?

65% - We are in a recession.

29% - We are in a depression.

2% - The economy is just fine.

4% - No opinion.


Right to Work

November 1973

Do you feel that Missouri should have a “right to work” law?

62% - Yes.

13% - No.

21% - No opinion


November 1973

Should labor and management be able by law to negotiate with the power to determine whether or not at all the laborers in a company should be required to join the union?

55% - Yes.

38% - No.

7% - No opinion.


September-October 1974

Should an employee of a company be required to join the union in order to keep his job?

30% - Yes.

65% - No.

6% - No opinion.


September-October 1974

Should non-union employees who do not pay union dues be able to receive the benefits that the union wins for the union employees who pay the union dues?

31% - Yes.

62% - No.

7% - No opinion.



July-August 1974

Missouri has an 8 percent limit to interest that can be charged on loans to individuals.  Some people think that the limit should be raised be raised because loan companies are discouraged from lending money at 8 percent interest.  Others think the interest limit should remain at 8 percent in order to keep down inflation.  Should the 8 percent interest limit be maintained or be raised?

75%  - Maintained.

14% - Raised.

11% - No opinion.



September-October 1974

Would you support or oppose a state lottery in Missouri?

59% - Support.

34% - Oppose.

7% - No opinion.


Minimum Wage Law

September-October 1974

Would you favor or oppose a  minimum wage law in Missouri?

83% - Favor.

13% - Oppose.

4% - No opinion.


Non-Public School

July 1973

Giving some tax credit to parents who pay tuition in sending their children to private or parochial schools?

34% - Strongly approve.

14% - Mildly approve.

5% - Neutral.

15% - Mildly disapprove.

29% - Strongly disapprove.

3% - No opinion.


Nuclear Power Plants

November 1973

Do you support or oppose the construction of nuclear power plants in Missouri?

33% - Support strongly.

27% - Support mildly.

14% - Neither support or oppose.

13% - Oppose mildly.

12% - Oppose strongly.



March-April 1974

Do you think there should be

8% - Fewer regulations against smoking in public places.

44% - More regulations against smoking in public places.

44% - Our present regulations are satisfactory.

3% - No opinion.



New Candidate Filings

Richard Detweiler filed to run as a Democrat in House 3 against Republican incumbent Zach Wyatt.  Detweiler is the mayor of Kirksville.  It’s a 60-40 Republican district.



Alan Wyatt filed to run as a Republican in House 6.  This is where Rep. Randy Asbury withdrew last week.  Observers suggest that the three-way Republican which has developed in the wake of Asbury’s abdication is really a two-way race between Wyatt and Ron Gillett.  It’s seen as a Macon versus Randolph primary with the edge going to Macon (Wyatt) because not all of Randolph (Gillett) is in the district.



Chris Heckadon filed to run as a  Republican in House 34.  That’s a primary for Rep. Jeff Grisamore going into his final term.  Read a bio on Heckadon Here.  (Highlight: dude’s a martial arts champion).



Chris Gard filed to run as a Republican in House 63.  Gard is a Wentzville city councilman.  He enters a primary against Bryan Spencer who has come under fire for his involvement in the St. Charles caucus debacle.  See a Youtube video of Spencer Here.  (Highlight: “I’m running for state rep so I can’t say anything publicly.”)  The video has about 200 views on Friday, it’s now at 42,000+.  Ron Paul people will probably have someone file here, creating a three-way.



Rio Vitale filed to run as a Democrat in House 80.  That gives a primary to Rep. Mike Colona.  Colona should be safe.  Vitale is from “the Hill” neighborhood of St. Louis City.  He’s president of the Bocce Club there.



John Callahan filed to run as a Democrat in House 102.  The incumbent is Republican Rep. Kurt Bahr.  It’s a 65-35 Republican district.



Richard Buchli filed to run as a Democrat in House 133.  He joins Nicholas Ivan Ladendorf in a Dem primary to decide who takes on Rep. Eric Burlison in the general.  It’s a 65-35 Republican district.



eMailbag: Drebes Wrong

“I disagree entirely with your analysis as to the Religious Freedom v. Contraception debate. I watch the polls very carefully.  Perhaps you have missed the recent polls wherein Obama’s support amongst women has plunged in the past few weeks.  My hypothesis:  Obama’s support amongst Catholic women is leading the plunge.  Women may not want politicians messing around with their contraception ‘rights’ but they REALLY do not want politicians invading the holy sanctuary of their Churches.”



Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Edward E Quick added Jackson County.

Lynn Ann Vogel added The Missouri Bar.



$5K+ Contributions

Missourians Against Costly Mandates - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri PAC.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,675 – Central Bancompany PAC.

Friends of Ellen Brandom - $5,000 from Richard Montgomery.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Boehringer Ingelheim.

Spence for Governor - $5,000 from Content 180 LLC.

Spence for Governor - $5,000 from Chase McKeague.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from David Steward.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Cerner Corporation PAC.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Kenneth McClain.

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Dollar, Burns & Becker.

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Life Sciences Fund of Greater KC.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Accurso Law Firm.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Polsinelli Shughart.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from DaVIS, Bethune & Jones LLC.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Lathrop& Gage LLP.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Pipefitters Local #533 Volunteer Political Action Fund.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Harris and Harris LLC.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Terrence Dunn.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Andrew Gelbach, PC.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Matt Koster.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Michael Healy.