November 22, 2011

Schweich’s Cry for Attention

Yesterday Auditor Tom Schweich apparently sent word to Politico’s Dave Catanese that he was considering running for governor.   (Read it Here.)  Catanese says that two people “close to Schweich” gave him this news.  But as the peerless John Combest noted in his headlines, it was transparently a self-float.


No one else – from what I can tell – is at all interested in Schweich running.  There is absolutely no buzz in GOP circles about how Schweich would be a strong gubernatorial candidate.


Two top Republicans explained Schweich’s “cry for attention” is just a plea for an ego stroke.  He wasn’t included in any of the talks about last week’s big switcheroo and he wants to remind people that he must be taken seriously.


Says one, Schweich can tell people what an impressive fundraiser he is, but with less than twelve months to Election Day, a self-funder is the only real option for Republicans.


As people ignore Schweich’s “serious consideration,” it may spur him to talk even more aggressively about his prospects.  But there is no there there from what I can tell.



Consultant Wars

One tidy theory for Schweich’s self-float against the person Peter Kinder endorsed for governor (yes, the same Kinder who gave Schweich’s auditor campaign $220K and credibility) is that it helps consultant extraordinaire David Barklage land Dave Spence as his client.


Create the problem to solve the problem.  Solve the problem, and invoice the client…


This conspiracy theory – which is not as crazy as my usual conspiracy theories – feeds the general perception among Republicans that the consultants have an outsized influence within the Party and are willing to use the politicians as puppets when paychecks are endangered.


Those who see the political landscape in terms of consultant wars will view Sen. Brad Lager’s refusal to retreat from lieutenant governor as a proxy for western warlord Jeff Roe to stake a statewide claim on ground Barklage has long held.



MRP: Let Me Tell You About Their Problems

Yesterday’s memo from Missouri Republican Party ED Lloyd Smith explains to anyone who suspend belief that it’s the Missouri Democratic Party leaders who really have a mess on their hands…


This weekend, Jackson County Executive Mike Sanders became the third Chairman of the Missouri Democratic Party in the last 12 months-and after his party was reduced to near-extinction by the Republican wave in 2010, he has his work cut out for him…


Candidate Recruitment Problems


In recent weeks, the MDP has attempted to paint a picture of Republican disorganization, but this is nothing more than desperate spin to cover up their own recruitment failures.


Here are the facts:


.         The Democrat's 2012 "recruitment" effort has consisted of little

more than 4 statewide officeholders announcing their intention to seek



.         It has been widely reported that then-MDP Chair Susan Montee only agreed to run for Lt. Governor after her party failed to recruit anyone else.


.         With less than one year until the election, not a single Democrat has announced their intention to run in any of the 6 congressional districts currently represented by a Republican…



The Political Environment


Over the past several years, it has become clear that Missouri is trending towards Republicans.  In 2008, Missouri was the only targeted state that voted for John McCain over Barack Obama.  And in 2010, Missouri Republicans swept elections at the county, state, and federal level.  In fact, Roy Blunt's victory in the U.S. Senate race was the largest since 1994, and Tom Schweich's victory was the first time in decades that a challenger has defeated a down-ballot incumbent.


Now, as we approach the 2012 elections, Democrats are facing another very difficult cycle. 


According to Rasmussen Reports…



Long-term problems


The Republican Party's extensive victories at every level of government over the past decade have eliminated the Democrat's pool of potential candidates-and it shows.  As noted above, the Democratic Party is struggling to recruit quality candidates because they simply don't have many options, and this problem will only get worse over time….



Map Time?

The heavy rumor is that the new legislative redistricting maps will be issued today or tomorrow.  This rumor doesn’t emanate from Jeff City sources who are theoretically closer to the court sources.  Instead it seems to be making the rounds among Republican and Democratic state representatives.


The source of the rumor appears at least partially based in the belief that the judges on the appellate commission are aware that their output is likely to be unpopular in some quarters.  Therefore they have one eye on the Thanksgiving break as a chance to escape any immediate wrath.



Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Lou Hamilton deleted Motomart and Rimco Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Health Care Association PAC - $77,500 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Teamsters Local Union No 688 PAC - $10,814 from I.B.T. Drive.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Barry Aycock.




Former Rep. Therese Sander is 63 today.



MOScout News

Slacker I… Daily Update tomorrow, and Weekly Summary tomorrow as well.  NO Update on Thanksgiving or Friday, unless I’m tipped a juicy tidbit and I can’t stand not sharing before Monday.


I will be doing a round of “forecast presentations” next month once we have new state House and Senate maps.  The presentations will include demographic information on all the districts, a look at where the new competitive races will be, as well as a look ahead to the next legislative session.  Hope to nail down the dates on that for you all next week.


And coming soon… MOScout Polls.  Nothing fancy, but I’m going to do some statewide automated polling during this election cycle.  If things go as planned, first one next week…