Thursday, April 12, 2012

Silvey Snags Teamsters’ Endorsement

The state and local Teamsters endorsed Rep. Ryan Silvey in his Senate 17 bid.  This is yet one more big crossover endorsement for the Republican Silvey who last week nabbed Democratic mayor Sly James’ endorsement.

I had Senate 17 in my Senate Battleground Report last week.  But despite the toss-up voting index of the district, it’s looking less and less like a competitive race, as Silvey drives one nail after another into the Dems’ coffin.

Senate 7: Holsman Also Endorsed

Rep. Jason Holsman, running in Senate 7, also pulled down the Teamsters’ endorsement.  On the one hand it’s less surprising because Holsman’s a Democrat running in a safe Democratic district.  On the other hand it’s very surprising because Holsman is in a spirited primary with Crystal Williams, who has plenty of progressive credentials.

One would have expected organized labor to sit out the primary.  This move is either bold, or an indication that labor will be engaged in this primary.

And

Any argument that Senate 7 – which is rightly known as the Justus seat (though Sen. Jolie Justus, touched by redistricting fairy dust, will magically float westward to MidMO for her final two years) – is a “women’s seat” appears to evaporate when looking through the numbers of previous elections.

In the 2008 attorney general’s race, Margaret Donnelly only won 36% from the new Senate 7, while Chris Koster and Jeff Harris split most of the difference.  Similarly, in Justus’ 2006 Senate race, she won about a third of the vote, while to two men (Jason Klumb and Mike Flaherty) combined for 54%.

Senate 1: Lembke Raises $191K

Sen. Jim Lembke continued to load the ammo as he prepares for a November reelection battle.  According to his April report, he raised $191,530 and has $291,472 on-hand.

Critics will likely note that when you back out the Republican Senate’s campaign committee’s contribution ($100K) and the heavy checks from other GOP senators ($25K from Dempsey, $25K from Schmitt, and $5K from Kehoe, Parson, Wasson and Richard), it was a pretty light quarter… around $20K raised.

In my book though, money is money.  Ammo is ammo.  And regardless of where it comes from, it can be used to win an election.

Meanwhile on the Dem Side

No reports yet from Sue Schomehl or Rep. Scott Sifton.  But Mike Vogt did file his April report… $100 raised, from himself.

Maria ‘Mini-Filibusters’

Post Dispatch reporter Virginia Young aptly describes Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal’s floor behavior yesterday as a “mini-filibuster.”  Read it Here.

Chappelle-Nadal was mostly alone yesterday as she fought against a bill to expand charter schools.  Her insistence that the bill sponsor, Sen. Bill Stouffer, had only worked with her for the first 15 pages of the bill was reminiscent of Sen. Scott Rupp’s “13 steps” speech from a few session ago. But whereas Rupp was railing against the tone-deaf 2nd floor, Chappelle-Nadal was speaking of Stouffer, one of the most kind, respectful, gentle and reasonable residents of the 3rd floor.  The charge didn’t stick.

And because she has been the most aggressive defender on the floor (among the dwindled Dem caucus) some worry she may be overplaying the hand of the severely outnumbered minority. One observer focused on the strategy aspect, saying it was important that she had mapped out multiple exit points before embarking.  Otherwise burning hours of floor time will start to wear on the body’s collective patience.

Kander Number Rumor

Word is that Rep. Jason Kander will post a quarterly number in line with his last quarter. I had been estimating a drop-off from his first quarter.  If the rumor is true then he’ll be putting up something in the $225K area and his cash on-hand, assuming slightly higher expenditures, will be around $600K, a full $100K higher than I was expecting.

This will be two to three times higher than his Republican counterparts in the secretary of state’s race.  And because he is without a primary the cash advantage will be particularly significant on the Wednesday morning, August 8.

About Tax Amnesty

House Republicans scoff at the objections that Republican senators have to the tax amnesty proposal.  They note that their legislation requires eight year of tax compliance from those taking advantage of the amnesty.  If the amnesty-seekers fail to maintain that good record, then all the penalties and interest would become due.  Those “teeth,” they say, would prevent the legislation from becoming a “moral hazard.”

StudentsFirst Releases TV Ad

StudentsFirst is running a television advertisment to promote their agenda.  The buy is said to be in the “low 6 figures, mix of broadcast and cable across all of the major markets in the state.” (See it Here)

From the ad: “Studies show that one of the best things we can do is put a great teacher in every classroom.  But that requires education reform.  Evaluations and promotions must be based on classroom performance.  And we must protect great teachers from seniority based lay-offs.”

Nasheed, NRA, Nixon

NRA press release: “Please join the National Rifle Association (NRA) and Governor Jay Nixon on Friday, April 12 (sic) for a ribbon cutting ceremony to celebrate the opening of the NRA’s 141st Annual Meetings and Exhibits. The ceremony will take place at 9:00 a.m. in the entrance to Hall 4…”

Rep. Jamilah Nasheed press release: “Friday, April 13 at 11:00 a.m… Rep. Jamilah Nasheed and FireBack at Gun Violence Executive Director Joe Grace. Survivors of the Tucson mass shooting… Message: The National Rifle Association has pushed ‘Kill at Will’ laws across the country, falsely claiming they only allow those defending themselves to ‘Stand Your Ground.’ In reality, these laws are allowing killers to go free. Florida’s ‘Kill at Will’ law has been used to justify the killing of Trayvon Martin and could prevent a successful prosecution of the shooter.”

Newman Decries Hijacked HB 1853

Rep. Stacey Newman’s statement:  “House Republican leadership this year has made a top priority of imposing government control over health decisions unique to women. To bring further attention to the inherent hypocrisy of this misogynistic and paternalistic agenda, I filed House Bill 1853, which calls for restrictions on men's reproductive health decisions akin to those Republicans want for women.

“Yesterday, the House Special Committee on Governmental Affairs approved HB 1853 on a party-line vote, but only after Republicans hijacked my original legislation by removing regulation of vasectomies and replacing it with language that only imposes government control over women's personal health decisions.

“With this latest attack, the Republican majority has made clear its opinion that men can be trusted to make decisions related to reproductive health but women cannot and need the government to tell them what to do.”

Bits

Farm Journal Media (ww.Agweb.com) seeks a web editor (based in Mexico, MO).  See ad Here.

Missouri turnout in presidential 2008 cycle: 69.55% versus Missouri turnout in non-presidential 2010: 46.8%.

Attorney General Chris Koster preannounced a strong quarter.  It was in-line with expectations.  I had estimated $1.9 million cash on-hand, and he finished with $2 million in the bank.

On his road-show to tout the candidacy of Sarah Steelman, former Reagan national security advisor Bud McFarlane is predicting $200/barrel oil by the end of 2014.   Just as conservatives predict national debt doom while conveniently ignoring the market’s judgment as expressed in 2% ten-year bonds, so McFarlane seems to be ignoring the oil futures market which is pricing November 2014 oil a little over $98/barrel.

In House 134, Elijah Haahr preannounced $20K raised as he takes on establishment Republican choice John Sellars.  The odd line in the press release: “We are extremely excited with the support our campaign has received. Nearly 1/4 of our donations came from residents of the 134th

district. This is truly a grassroots campaign.” – Elijah Haahr.

In House 37, Chris Moreno unveiled some endorsements. They included Lee’s Summit Councilman Allan Gray, Lee’s Summit Councilman Brian Whitley, Lee’s Summit School Board Member Terri Harmon, Former Lee’s Summit Mayor Karen Messerli, Former Raymore Mayor Juan Alonzo, Former Office of Administration Director Kelvin Simmons, and Rep. Jonas Hughes.

$5K+ Contributions

HealthPAC - $220,000 from MHA Management Services Corp.

Give Missourians A Raise - $45,000 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

Missourians for Responsible Lending - $80,000 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

MO Democratic State Committee - $7,200 from Jay Nixon for Missouri.

Missourians Against Costly Mandates - $92,000 from Kansas City Power & Light Co.

Missourians Against Costly Mandates - $180,000 from Ameren Missouri.

Ken Jacob Committee - $15,000 from Ken Jacob.

Missourians for Equal Credit Opportunity - $46,000 from Missourians for Responsible Government.

Congratulations

To Travis Fitzwater on the birth of his daughter yesterday.  7 pounds, 12 ounces for those keeping score…

Condolences

To Renee Hulshof on the passing of her mother.  Read obituary Here.