Thursday, February 23, 2012

Commission Votes Out Senate Map

The commission voted out a new senate map late last night.  It was a 8-2 vote.  The map may be found Here.

Winners, Loser, Washes

Note: I don’t have voting index numbers yet, so this is entirely me eyeballing it.

In Senate 1, Sen. Jim Lembke is more vulnerable than before to a legitimate Democratic candidate.  His new district heads north and grabs some of Maplewood and Webster Groves.  There are plenty of suburban Dems in those areas

Senate 2, still a safe Republican district.  If Sen. Scott Rupp wins secretary of state, committeepeople chose.  If not, it’s a free for all in 2014.

Senate 3 returns to its previous shape.  It no longer has Cape Girardeau as the last incarnation had.  That means Gary Romine will likely be the Republican nominee in a close general election against Rep. Joe Fallert.

Senate 4 goes farther north and gets the incredibly retail-rich Highway 40 corridor out to the Galleria and Brentwood Blvd.  Good for Sen. Joe Kevaeny’s fundraising with developers I would think.

New maps mean that Rep. Jamilah Nasheed gets the green light on her primary challenge to Sen. Robin Wright Jones in Senate 5.

Senate 6 drifts east instead of north, but Sen. Mike Kehoe looks substantially fine.

Senate 7 is big.  It moves from the east side if the state (Sen. Jane Cunningham) to western side, replacing the old Senate 10 – Sen. Jolie Justus’ seat.  That means a few things: first, real frenzy in the next two weeks to see who files for Jolie’s seat.  It wasn’t supposed to be up until 2014.  Rep. Mike Talboy would be an early front-runner.  But Rep. Jason Holsman will likely give the district a good look.  I doubt those two would run against each other.  Former reps. Beth Low and John Burnett could also consider it, as well as Rep. Kevin McMannus.

Cunningham is now located in Senate 26 (Sen. Brian Nieves), but could easily jump into Senate 24 (Sen. John Lamping)… Intrigue folks!

Sen. Will Kraus is back in Senate 8.

Sen. Kiki Curls fine in Senate 9.

The new Senate 10 is the new Mid-MO district.  It’s fine for Rep. Jeanie Riddle except that she now has to wait two year before it’s up for election.

Former Rep. Paul LeVota should have no problem taking over Senate 11 from Sen. Victor Callahan.

Senate 12 (Sen. Brad Lager termed) drops a bit farther south, but nothing which changes its essential nature.

Senate 13 (Sen. Tim Green termed) is very similar to its current district; it trades some Jennings for some of Florissant which might help former rep. Gina Walsh on purely racial calculations.

In Senate 14 Sen. Maria Chappelle Nadal keeps University City and gets Clayton as well.

Sen. Eric Schmitt’s Senate 15 heads west.  It’s a heavier Republican district now, but he loses a fair amount of Kirkwood and Webster Groves which were previously a defining base to the district.

Sen. Dan Brown’s Senate 16 goes west instead of north, but no re-election problems.

Rep. Ryan Silvey looks fine with Senate 17.  One pol quips he’s “short of developing a really bad drug problem, he’s golden.”

Sen. Brian Munzlinger’s Senate 18 no real significant change.

Sen. Kurt Schaefer is being called the biggest winner with the new map.  His Senate 19 trades Moberly for Cooper escaping Howard County.  One text: “Nixon didn’t just throw Mary Still under the bus, he threw her under the road grader.”

Sen. Jay Wasson safe in Senate 20.

Sen. David Pearce formerly of Senate 31 now has to run his ass off in Senate 21.  It’s a fine Republican district, he just has to meet a lot of new people.

Senate 22 (Sen. Ryan McKenna termed) appears to be safe for Dems now.

Senate 23 looks like it lost part of St. Peters.  Although Sen. Tom Dempsey is presumably safe in his re-election, it might be a Democratic pick up in 2016.

In Senate 24, Sen. John Lamping loses Clayton and gets what looks like a much more Republican district.  He’ll be vulnerable to Sen. Jane Cunningham if she turns her gaze toward him. Regardless this district seems like it’s off the table for Democrats in the future.

Senate 25 (Sen. Rob Mayer termed) , businessman Doug Libla is now in this bootheel district response from Dems is that Rep. Terry Swinger will have a tough road ahead of him to win this district.

Sen. Brian Nieves is paired with Sen. Jane Cunningham in the new Senate 26.  Although it contains all of Nieves’ Franklin County base, my gut is that Cunningham could win that primary.  We will have to wait and see what Cunningham decides to do.

One would expect for Rep. Ellen Brandom to change her committee to run for Senate 27 now, and she’d be the favorite.

Sen. Mike Parson loses Henry and St. Clair to the new Senate 31, but he’s okay.

Senate 29 (Sen. Jack Goodman termed) is fine for Rep. David Sater and Sen. Bob Dixon is fine in the Springfield district of Senate 30.

Rep. Scott Largent gets the green light for the new Senate 31.  While it’s been mentioned before that Cass County has a nice chuck of the new district, no names have emerged from there so it looks like Largent is the favorite when filing opens.

Sen. Ron Richard fine in Senate 32.

Rep. Ward Franz is a big winner in Senate 33 (Sen. Chuck Purgason termed).  He will still have a primary, but it won’t have bigfoot businessman Doug Libla.

And Sen. Rob Schaaf’s Senate 34 is essentially unchanged.

So

Look for the House to pass a modified filing date change, pushing back the opening date but leaving the closing date intact.  Senate will have to pick up and pass right away.

Google TV?

Google applied last week for a video service franchise.  The application is on file with the Public Service Commission (Here).

The company name on the application is Google Fiber Missouri, LLC.  This seems to indicate that the application is related to their Google Fiber experiment in Kansas City.  One source reports that Google also filed a similar application in Kansas.

Education Bill Gets Loaded Up

Yesterday the House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee passed out an omnibus bill which included a Turner fix, a foundation formula change, a tax credit to fund private school tuitions, changes to teacher tenure, charter school changes.  See it Here.

This is the opposite of signals that would being sent just a week or so ago.  And it should solidify the opposition to the bill.  There was a “murders’ huddle” of education-related lobbyists in the rotunda later yesterday morning.

House leadership is said to be already working hard at twisting arms, but the opponents insist that in its current form, they have the votes to stop it.  They’re circling back on their votes to make sure.

Urban Dems split.  Some like the charter school stuff, others repelled by the attacks on the teachers’ union.  Rural Republicans split too.  Some want the foundation formula fix, but not sure they can swallow the teacher tenure changes.  Suburban Republicans also have problems weighing the carrot of a Turner fix against the loss they imagine when parochial schools are funded through state tax credit dollars.

And

One lobbyist without a dog in the fight says plan B for opponents will likely be a Hammerschmidt challenge, given the hodge-podge of educational reforms in the bill and the court’s recent ruling.

Mamtek Committee Bills on Monday

The House Government Oversight Committee hearing Monday will hear the “Mamtek bills” by grouping.

The biggest grouping will include Rep. Chris Kelly’s bill (1304) which requires a vote of the people before local bond issuance, Rep. Jay Barnes’ bill (1773) which clarifies a professional duty of underwriters to investigate material claims of businesses or projects for which muni appropriations bonds are issued, and Barnes’ bill (1776) which requires insurance to repay appropriations bonds in the event of a default.

To keep the meeting running, Chair Barnes will insist that anyone testifying for or against any of the bills in a grouping needs to be prepared to testify and answer questions on the others.

$5k+ Contributions

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from Enterprise Holding Inc PAC.

MO Republican Party - $10,000 from UP Railroad Company.

Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Red-Card Systems LLC.

Schoeller for Missouri - $5,000 from Peter Herschend.

Spence for Governor - $5,000 from Chemline Inc.

People for Chris Purvis - $5,000 from Christopher Purvis.

Missourians for Randles - $5,000 from Bill Randles.

Missourians for Koster - $5,000 from Shamberg Johnson & Bergman LLP.

Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Randy Scherr and Brian Bernskoetter added American Board of Cosmetic Surgery Inc.

Jeff Brooks, Bill Gamble, Jorgen Schlemeier and Sarah Topp added Care Management Technologies.

Scott Rogers added Balanced Budget Amendment Inc.

Carl Szabo added Netchoice.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Rick Stream (63).