Thursday, January 26, 2012

Ed Martin for AG

While we’re still technically in the realm of rumors here – I’m not the type who calls to confirm – I have a high degree of confidence that Ed Martin will be dropping out of his congressional race and switching to run for attorney general.

 

Martin has been making phone calls to this effect, and an announcement should be coming soon.  Two sources suggesting it could be as early as today.

 

What It Means

It’s a classic win-win-win.

 

Ed Martin wins because even though he faces an uphill path against incumbent Chris Koster, he gets wider appeal and future name ID by running statewide.  Martin, as of his October quarter, only had about $270K on-hand, but once he’s operating without limits he should be able to significantly expand his warchest.

 

Ann Wagner wins.  To paraphrase Sun Tzu (it’s too early to go rooting around books): to win without fighting is the highest achievement.

 

Republicans win because Wagner can spread her resources around to help other candidates – not just the money, but the services and expertise of the very capable Aaron Willard.

 

Republicans further win because Martin plays the attack dog role much stronger against a Democrat than a fellow Republican.  His rhetoric will fire up Republicans, especially hard-core pro-lifers and Tea Party types and help statewide turn out.

 

And even Koster wins.  Literally on November 6, but also running against a legitimate right-wing Republican should cement his Democratic bona fides as he looks to the 2016 gubernatorial nomination fight.

 

And

What will be the centerpiece of Martin’s AG race?  Well here’s an excerpt from his latest email blast:

 

“If Obamacare is not stopped, it will fundamentally alter the relationship between citizens and the Federal Government.  We will become less free, and we will become more dependent.  This is well understood by the majority of Missourians and was reflected in the overwhelming passage of Proposition C.

 

“Unfortunately, Prop C was ignored by our governor and attorney general.  Jay Nixon attempted to get Obamacare rolling by starting the process of creating health care exchanges, and AG  Chris Koster drug his feet in joining the many states fighting Obamacare as an unconstitutional intrusion into their citizen’s lives.  Neither of these men have the heart to buck their Liberal friends and fight for us.”

 

 

No Maxwell for LG

Scratch Joe Maxwell’s name off the possible LG’s melee.  After a round of discussions, Maxwell has decided he prefers his life now, and is declining to reenter the public arena despite a belief that there was a path for him to return to the lieutenant governor’s office.

 

 

Bits

Travis Fitzwater kicks off his House 49 campaign next week. The event is on January 31, at 6:30pm at Beks in Fulton.

 

 

The Missouri Supreme Court is now giving alerts via twitter.  Follow them at @MoSupCourtAlert.

 

 

The Senate spent most of yesterday debating changes to employment discrimination.  The bulk of the Dems filibuster was maintained by Sens. Maria Chappelle-Nadal and Robin Wright Jones.

 

 

eMailbag

One Observer On the Future of the Senate

“I think you expressed this in a different way, but I like Donald Rumsfeld’s phrase that the most difficult thing about planning or predicting is the ‘unknown unknowns.’

 

“For example, when Sen. Jason Crowell first moved over to the Senate he despised the tradition and reluctance to move the PQ – saying at least on one occasion I can remember that he’d moved more PQs in the House than anyone in history and he had no idea why a super majority wouldn’t impose its will on a tiny but vocal minority. Crowell only got the religion of Senate tradition after he decided he had no desire for the dog and pony show of Senate leadership – watched Matt Bartle, and because he’s a smart guy ‘discovered’ he could get just as much as he wanted as the vehement and frequent obstructionist as a nose-to-the-grindstone senator. Someone else – someone unexpected – could come to the same conclusion and become the ‘unknown unknown’ that cripples the optimists’ theory on the next 4 years in the Missouri Senate.”

 

 

Tweet if the Day

@RyanSilvey Ang, if you watched Twitter you would know we got done early this week & I'm headed home to surprise you. But, you don't. #cominghome

 

 

Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

 

Jewell D. H. Patek added Rocky Mountain Dental Association.

 

 

$5K+ Contributions

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $15,000 from Premier I, LLC.