Thursday, July 12, 2012

July Numbers Start

Tim Jones Whisper Number?

Speaker-elect Tim Jones will likely show over $100K raised.  He’s unopposed in both the primary and general election.  Jones’ cash on-hand then would be somewhere north of $500K, but after making $150K or so to colleagues and the House Republican Campaign Committee should settle around the $400K figure.



Kinder Earned Media Number?

With the expectation that incumbent Peter Kinder will be blown away by insurgent Brad Lager this quarter, one Republican (unaffiliated with the campaigns but sympathetic to Kinder) points out the recent patch of healthcare media that Kinder has secured.  He made rounds after the supreme court decision and has continued to be everywhere.  This week’s St. Louis conservative radio salvaging of Lager also showed the deep ties that Camp Kinder has with the fourth estate.


Thus, this Republican argues, Lager will outspend Kinder on the airwaves, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will overwhelm Kinder once you consider Kinder’s earned media component.



Wright Jones

After her last quarter showing $12.30 cash on-hand, Sen. Robin Wright Jones is one of the quarter a lot of politicos are fixated on out of almost purely schadenfreude impulses.  When I texted one Dem that I had sighted my first RWJ yard sign yesterday, the reply: is it old or new?  Because everyone assumes there’s no money in the campaign.   Another put the “over/under” on her quarter at “$542.12”.



Lembke Files

Sen. Jim Lembke in a tough re-election battle raised $49,903 and spent $20,875; he has $320,500 on-hand.  That’s a fat number since Lembke is without a primary (and banging the doors in usual Lembke style).  Neither of the two Democrats – Sue Schoemehl and Scott Sifton – have filed their quarters.



McCaskill’s Monster Quarter

Sen. Claire McCaskill pre-announced a $2.6 million raised in the last three months.  Read it here.  The News-Leader article says that she will show $3.6 million cash on-hand (after her $3 million prepayment for fall television advertisements).


Clearly the river of national money pouring into third-party groups mean that the Republican opposition will no problem getting their message out.  But this stunning fundraising haul also means that McCaskill will be able to defend herself on the airwaves.


From the cynical book of life: Consultants will have a nice payday this cycle.  And the marginal millions upon millions will have fractional impact.



Spin Me Baby

I asked two folks the path for Congressman Todd Akin to win the Senate race…


Steelman Sympathizer: He has to go negative on Brunner, otherwise he’s just too far back to have a chance.


Brunner Sympathizer: His best bet is to stay positive, hope that Brunner and Steelman tear each other down.



Brunner: You Too, Sarah

Just days ago John Brunner parried an attack that his taxes were paid late by pointing out that the other Senate candidates were guilty of the same offense.  This morning the same play is being called as it relates to his daughter’s support of an animal charity.


From the presser:  “In 2003, Sarah Steelman accepted a maximum contribution from the president of the radical animal welfare group, the Missouri Alliance for Animal Legislation.”



Odd Ads

In some conservative websites – Weekly Standard, National Review for example – Jay Nixon ads pop up.  Is it a concerted effort to steal right-leaning Missourians, or just the wacky internet ad bounce?




Who schedules a golf tourney for July 23?  Someone who doesn’t believe in global warming I’d guess… Tim Jones’ 6th Annual Golf Tournament:  Monday, July 23 at The Country Club at The Legends in Eureka, Missouri.



Tonight Keith and Sandy Querry host a major fundraiser for John Mayfield.  Mayfield’s the Dem running in House 20 against incumbent Rep. Brent Lasater.  Lasater shocked everyone two years ago by winning the 56% Dem district in the huge Republican wave.  Dems think they can take it back.  House 20 was on the MOScout “House Battleground list” earlier this year.  See it here.



$5K+ Contributions

MO Democratic State Committee - $26,000 from Jay Nixon for Missouri.

MO Republican Party - $50,000 from John Templeton.

Ameren UE Political Action Committee - $87,500 from Ameren Missouri.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $8,412 from Michael Ketchmark.

Missourians for Health and Education - $15,000 from American Heart Association.

Progress KC Committee - $25,000 from Burns and McDonnell.



Lobbyists Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Brent Hemphill and Kristian Starner deleted Missourians for Responsible Government.




Happy birthdays to Rep. Melissa Leach (52) and James Knowles (33).


Friday the 13th: Reps. Tim Meadows (54) and Brent Lasater (52), Advantage Capital’s Jeff Craver, Jeff Howell (41), and Gary Marshall.


Saturday: Game-changer David Winton (44).