Thursday, November 3, 2011

Kinder to Announce Intentions

The most important ingredient to suspense and drama is time.  Wait, wait, wait until the audience’s itch for resolution has grown into an unrestrained urge.  Then wait some more.


St. Louis Beacon reports that LG Peter Kinder is within a week or two of ending his listening tour and the stepping up to the podium to make an announcement.  Read it Here.


The needle of expectation, amazingly, has moved back into the middle ground.  Just as his lack of an affirmative announcement had people writing him off, now the lack of a negative announcement has people wondering if he’s going to make a go of it after all.



Why Kinder Runs

First, this is his shot.  He’s earned it through decades of being a loyal team player.  Even if Governor Jay Nixon looks unassailable, it will be a good Republican year and President Barack Obama appears to be already conceding Missouri.


Second, other Republicans haven’t rallied behind an alternative.  While they privately admit they think Kinder has almost no chance of actually winning, he has name ID and $1.5 million in the bank.  He should be able to keep it within ten points – say a 55-45 loss – thus minimizing down ballot damage.  And the current forecast is for Nixon to achieve his victory through outperformance in southwest Missouri.  That’s where Kinder’s personal life hurts him most, and where Nixon’s tornado relief efforts help him most.  Republicans don’t see SWMO going Democratic anywhere else on the ballot.  If the Kinder wreckage is contained to that part of the state, they’re okay.


Finally, the cynics say that that Kinder consultant David Barklage needs the business and stature of running the gubernatorial race. 



Why Kinder Doesn’t Run

His campaign is a very very long shot.  His fundraising has never recovered from the summer scandals; and rumors continue that there will be “another shoe to drop.”  He can exit as a statesman on his own terms, or risk the slings and arrows of the next twelve months…



Rumorville: Who’ll Run MO Dem Party

With Democratic State Party Chair Susan Montee embarking on a lieutenant governor campaign, there uncertainty about the direction of the state party.


Several sources say that Governor Jay Nixon – not a fan of Montee’s LG bid to begin with – is seeking to extract, as a price of that campaign, her exit from the party.


It’s said that Senator Claire McCaskill and Nixon each have designs on the party apparatus.  McCaskill would like her senate re-election to be the party’s primary focus; Nixon obviously see the governor’s race in a similar light.


Meanwhile there’s been a steady stream of departures, though one source says it’s just various people leaving for various reasons.  It’s not the trend it appears to be. 


Stay tuned…



Don’t Blame Teitelman!

One source familiar with supreme court protocol says that if Dems get a lame redistricting map, they can’t lay the blame solely at the feet of Justice Richard Teitelman.  He did not appoint the six member of appellate commission, although his signature is on the order.


Rather the supreme court as a whole determined the appointments.  They decided by consensus that there would be three Republicans and three Democrats on the commission.  Then individual judges were nominated and if they received four votes, they were placed on the commission.


It’s not unlikely, this source says, that there was some horse trading involved.  The appointment of Republican Roy Richter may have been in exchange for Democrat Robert Dowd.



Dems seem to be pinning their hopes on Dowd as the sliver of hope against the tides of pessimism now engulfing them…



Brunner: McCaskill Part of Problem

John Brunner’s new TV ad.  “America is lacking leadership and Claire McCaskill is a big part of the problem.”  See it Here.



Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Brad Bates added Missouri Association of Physicians and Surgeons. 


Tricia Workman added Online Lenders Alliance and deleted Logan College of Chiropractic.


Mike Gibbons deleted Boycom Cablevision Inc, Logan College of Chiropractic, and Blue Springs Growth Initiatives Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Richard DeStefane.

MO Republican Party - $12,500 from HRCC Inc.




Happy birthday to Rep. Kevin McManus (33).



Friday: Post Dispatch’s Tony Messenger (45).


Saturday:  lobbyists Jessica Hodge and Brad Ketcher.


Sunday:  Rep. Keith Frederick (59) and Lewis Reed’s Rory Roundtree.