Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The $1.3 Million Question

Speaker Steve Tilley filed his January quarter yesterday.   It showed he raised a fresh $104K, had disbursements of $332K and finished the year with a little over $1.3 million on-hand.

Tilley shocked the Missouri political landscape by announcing late last year that he was abandoning his bid for lieutenant governor.  In addition to opening the flood gates to aspirants (see below for today’s installment), there has been speculation what would become of the fruits of his prodigious fundraising efforts.

Tilley returned a little less than $200K, apparently on a pro rata basis (67%) to those who were seeking reimbursements.  But he’s still sitting on one of the largest campaign funds in the state.  And he didn’t change the purpose of the committee (it still says of 2012 lieutenant governor).

Although there’s been no formal announcement, the scuttlebutt is that the campaign committee will become something of a “TilleyPAC” which he will use to help candidates sharing his political orientation.

One intriguing tidbit from the filing, Tilley appears to have invested the bulk of the committee’s assets in a Perryville bank.  The filing says that the committee holds 12,000 shares of Reliable Community Bancshares Inc, worth $900,000.  Reliable Community Bancshares isn’t a publicly traded stock, which would raise the prospect that the majority of the committee’s assets are not readily liquid.  That would imply that the campaign committee will not be short-lived.

Kratky for LG?

Two Democratic sources say that former state representative Fred Kratky (and hubby to Rep. Michele Krakty) is considering jumping into the wrestlemania of the Democratic lieutenant governor’s race – if Judy Baker takes the plunge.

This appears to be happening parallel to Rep. Sara Lampe’s positioning.  In other words the race could become a free-for-all once Baker pulls the trigger as both Lampe and Kratky appear to be using that event at the catalyst for their entry.

The problem that all these Dem LG-wannabes have is money.  Susan Montee is very strong with two of the most important Democratic donor constituencies: labor and trial attorneys.  As such, she’s probably the only one of the crowd who can muster more than the standard $200-300,000.

Kratky’s play, however, would need less money than the others as it’s based on appealing to a different demographic while the three/four women split the left-of-center base.

And

Would Kratky – cousin to Governor Jay Nixon – be the 2nd floor’s preferred candidate?..

State of the State Tonight

Tonight Governor Jay Nixon will make his “state of the state” speech, and as important, Budget Director Linda Luebbering will hold her budget briefing.  Together they will answer everyone’s question as perfectly posed by the KC Star: Where’s the Money Going to Come From?  Read it Here.

Pull Quote: “If schools are held harmless, as Nixon apparently promised, and taxes aren’t raised — as Nixon has also promised — and Medicaid isn’t significantly reduced, and Nixon gets more money for job-creating initiatives, covering that shortfall will require some serious nipping and tucking throughout the budget (look for higher ed to get smacked again.)”

Davis to BNSF Railway

Former Public Service Commissioner Jeff Davis starts his new job today… Regional Director of Government Affairs for BNSF Railway.

Quarter Reports

Today is the deadline for the January campaign finance filings.  (The federal deadline isn’t until January 31, so we have two weeks before we see senate and congressional numbers.)  Here’s where we are as of this morning, what we’re waiting on etc.

Governor

Governor Jay Nixon preannounced late last week that his campaign would hit the $5 million cash on-hand mark, but he hasn’t formally filed yet.  And nothing from the Dave Spence camp.

Lieutenant Governor

The Democratic filings made Susan Montee look good.  She raised $88K and has a little over $100K on-hand.  By contrast, her only declared competition, Becky Plattner, is officially not legitimate now, having raised only $25.  Judy Baker hasn’t formed a campaign committee yet.  And Rep. Sara Lampe only raised $1,350.  Interesting to note her largest expense was $800 expenditure at the Apple Shop.

On the Republican side, nothing yet from incumbent Peter Kinder and Sen. Brad Lager.  But Sen. Luann Ridgeway amended her committee to seek the lieutenant governor’s office, and showed only $10,991 raised and has $40,014 on-hand.

Secretary of State

Rep Jason Kander reported a monster quarter: $232,054 raised, and now has $442,091 on-hand.  That should close the door on the never-ending primary chatter.  And it should put some fear into the trio of Republicans – Sens. Scott Rupp, Bill Stouffer and Rep. Shane Schoeller – who have yet to file.

Treasurer

Nothing as yet from incumbent Clint Zweifel, but Rep. Cole McNary reported $23,949 and now has $52,486 on-hand.

And

Waiting on Attorney General Chris Koster.

Senate 3

Gary Romine raised $41,635 and has $88,456 on-hand. That’s much better than what his declared opponent, Pat Naeger, showed last week.  But a lot hinges on whether a Cape Girardeau candidate emerges.  One rumored name, Rep. Wayne Wallingford, raised $5,750 and has $4,273 on-hand.

Senate 5

In Senate 5, Rep Jamilah Nasheed raised $27,103 and has $39,245 on-hand.  Waiting on Sen. Robin Wright Jones.  And Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford didn’t raise any money and has $651 on-hand.

Senate 13

Former state representative Gina Walsh raised $47,074 and has $121,729 on-hand.

Senate 17

Rep. Ryan Silvey cranks out a fresh $64K, bringing his total cash on-hand to $162K.  He got some lift from his House buddies ($5K each from Reps. Steve Tilley, Tim Jones and John Diehl). But what’s most interesting inside the quarter numbers is the $5K from AFSCME Missouri.  Grabbing that kind of labor support will make it harder for Dems to conjure up a legitimate candidate against him.

Senate 21

Sen. David Pearce raised $32,072 and has $122,015 on-hand.

Senate 23

Sen. Tom Dempsey raised $73,817 and has $191,622 on-hand.

Senate 25

Rep. Terry Swinger, the Democratic nominee, raised $88,212 and now has $176,800 on-hand.  That’s a good quarter from Swinger and bodes well for his candidacy.  His likely Republican opponent Rep. Ellen Brandom raised $21,399 and has $197,097 on-hand.  But Brandom will have a primary with Rep. Billy Pat Wright.  He raised $26,235 and has $44,752 on-hand

Senate 27

Sen. Jane Cunningham raised a whopping $155,018, and has $208,249 on-hand.

Senate 31

Rep. Scott Largent raised $20,700 and has $29,590 on-hand. Given that his map opportunity came in December, this isn’t quite as terrible a quarter as it looks, but obviously doesn’t dissuade anyone from running.  Still, no other names so far.

Senate 33

Businessman Doug Libla raised $54,175 and now has $221,522 on-hand.  Rep. Ward Franz raised $72,627 and has $137,042 on-hand.  As reported last week, Rep. Don Wells raised $14,225 and has $55,356 on-hand.

And

In potential death-match, Rep. Casey Guernsey raised $4,300 and has $3,614 on-hand. And Rep. Glen Klippenstein raised $3,787 and has $20,604 on-hand.

2012 Watch

Ann Schroeder, County Commissioner for Franklin, has announced she’s running in House 109 as a Democrat.  Read it Here. One Dem says, “She knows everyone in the area and is a candidate who can run.”  Republican Rep. Paul Curtman will be her opponent. According to the court numbers it’s a 41.3% DPI.

In House 25, Jeremy Lafaver is nailing down the Democratic nomination as evidenced by the host committee of his upcoming fundraiser…  Mayor Sly James, with Sens. Kiki Curls and Jolie Justus.

Nancy Copenhaver started a committee to run as a Democrat for House 47.  It’s a Howard County toss-up district without an incumbent.  She’s a former state representative.  Remember her Here.

Derrick Good started a campaign committee to run for House 111 as a Republican.  See him Here speaking at a Tea Party event.  He’s an attorney.  See bio Here. The district is a 56.6% DPI, and without an incumbent.

Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Daniel Bellingham added Healthcare Distribution Management Association.

Jay Hardenbrook added Missouri Budget Project.

James Harris added Rural Housing Developers LLC, and deleted Cardinal Developers LLC.

Todd Houldworth added Johnson & Johnson Health Care Systems Inc.

Scott Swain deleted Missouri Employers Mutual Insurance.

Ray Hefner added Plumbing Industry Council, and Missouri Association of Plumbing, Heating, and Cooling Contractors.

Lynne Schlosser added Missouri Conservation Environmental Alliance, and PVC Pipe Association; and deleted Insured Vehicle Identification Network LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Spence for Governor - $10,000 from Jesse Bodine.

Save Our States Jobs Coalition - $17,922 from Missouri Restaurant Association.

Schmitt for Senate - $5,541 from Republican 15th Senatorial District Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Sen. Mike Kehoe (the big 5-0).