Tuesday, July 3, 2012

MOScout’s “Primary Book” Available

Just in time for arguments around the barbeque grill…  The analysis of primary races is up now on the website under Special Reports.


In these reports are: the breakdown of the new districts (what portions of former districts comprise them, where the primary votes will come from, demographics), fundraising totals, candidate biographies, recent news articles, map of the district and a forecast call.


State House Democratic races (129 pages).  See it here.

State House Republican races (175 pages). See it here.

State Senate Democratic races (25 pages). See it here.

State Senate Republican races (38 pages). See it here.

Statewide races (13 pages) See it here.

Cheat Sheet (an Excel file).  See it here.


Some of these are large and may take a while to “load.”


Feedback, dissents, spitting and profanity always welcome email me – dave@moscout.com or call or text 314-255-5210 anytime.


Daily Updates will continue to follow these races and when I change a forecast for a race the “cheat sheet” will be updated.



MOScout Poll: Missourians Want ACA Medicaid Expansion

We polled last night.  Here are the top lines.  Full report on Thursday.  Respondents: 369 registered voters living in Missouri, with working telephones, who are likely to vote in November 2012. Margin of Error +/-5.1%.


“We’d like to get your opinion about things in Missouri, this survey is sponsored by a Missouri news organization, using your touch tone phone, please answer these few questions.


“What is the most important problem facing the State of Missouri right now, unemployment and jobs, government spending, education or health care?”


Unemployment and Jobs: 47.3%

Government Spending: 20.8%

Education: 15.9%

Health Care: 16.0%


“Last week the Supreme Court ruled the 2010 Health Care Law constitutional, and the state of Missouri has an option to expand Medicaid health insurance for those living in poverty. Do you support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid health insurance for the poor?”


Support: 57.8%

Oppose: 42.2%


“In order to provide Medicaid health insurance for the poor, the state of Missouri will have to spend additional tax money to qualify for federal matching funds. For every one dollar the state spends, the federal government will spend nineteen dollars towards Medicaid health insurance. Knowing this information, do you support or oppose the expansion of Medicaid health insurance for the poor?”


Support: 57.6%

Oppose: 42.4%



USAToday: NEA Losing Members

The lede: “The National Education Association (NEA) has lost more than 100,000 members since 2010. By 2014, union projections show, it could lose a cumulative total of about 308,000 full-time teachers and other workers, a 16% drop from 2010. Lost dues will shrink NEA's budget an estimated $65 million, or 18%.”  Read it here.



Endorsement Parade

Last night Susan Montee received the unanimous endorsement of the KC Pride Democratic Club for LG.


Congressman Russ Carnahan announced that the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police (Missouri FOP) endorsed him.


Gina Walsh won both the PROMO PAC and the International Association of Machinists endorsements in Senate 13.


In House 78, Ruth Ehresman won the endorsements of the Missouri National Education Association  (MNEA) and the 20th Ward Democratic Committee Organization.



Lobbyists Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Rodney Boyd, Brian Grace and Kelvin Simmons added One Park Place Investors LLC

Rodney Gray, Richard S Brownlee III, Susan Moore, Tami Holliday, and Michael Moorefield deleted Tracfone Wireless Inc., an Online System Inc.

Thomas H Heisey deleted The Bank of New York Mellon.

Steve Meradith deleted Windstream Communications.

Ginger Steinmetz deleted Wellcare.



$5K+ Contributions

Friends of Caleb Jones - $7,500 from RightCHOICE Managed Care In.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $30,000 from YPYKYA Inc.

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $30,000 from Wayne Wallingford.

Putting Kids First in Boone County - $12,500 from Burrell Behavioral Health.

Putting Kids First in Boone County - $22,000 from Preferred Family Healthcare Inc.

Kander for Missouri - $6,260 from The Barnes Firm LLC.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $25,000 from David Humphreys.

Romine for Senate - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $15,000 from Ford Motor Company Civic Action Fund – Missouri.

Citizens for Brad Lager - $250,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

MO Democratic State Committee - $15,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.

MO Democratic State Committee - $5,450 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Citizens for Ed Emery - $50,000 from David Humphreys.

Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Reliant Care Management Company LLC.

Spence for Governor - $10,000 from Rudolph Farber.

Spence for Governor - $10,000 from Schmitt for Senate.

Spence for Governor - $10,000 from Dennis Jones.

Spence for Governor - $500,000 from David Spence.

Spence for Governor - $25,000 from Carol McLerran

Citizens for Riddle - $6,000 from Mark Paullin.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Schmitt for Senate.



Cash Commentary

Sen. Brad Lager did land a check from Stan Herzog.  $250K.  That means he probably had a million dollar quarter.  And depending on burn-rates he could have a very large cash advantage on incumbent Peter Kinder.  Perhaps something on the magnitude of 2:1.



Dave Spence wrote a $500K check to himself.



David Humphreys getting busy.  He wrote a $25K check to Rep. Wayne Wallingford (running in Senate 27), $50K to Ed Emery (Senate 31) and rumors are that there’s another check out there that hasn’t hit yet to Rep. Mike McGhee (running in Senate 21).




Happy birthday to Sara Schuett (40).


And born on the 4th of July: Rep. Joe Aull (64), Sen. Ron Richard (65), Jim Moody and Courtney Cole.



MOScout News

No MOScout tomorrow.  See you Thursday….