Tuesday, October 4, 2011

House EcoDevo Bill

The House heads back to work tomorrow.  No surprises are expected from the EcoDevo bill in the House.  The stand-offs remains, with the greatest impasse being the House’s lack of sunsets on Historic Preservation and Low Income Housing tax credit programs.

There’s a dearth of optimism.  House folks have nearly thrown in the towel, saying that they think “certain obstructing senators” don’t really want a bill.

What It Means

First, I continue to think this is very bad news for state Republicans.  In what should be a strong Republican year because of the economy, Missouri Dems will have a compelling narrative:  “Huge Republican majorities in both chambers were unable to pass a jobs bill with 9% unemployment; by the way, the Democratic governor said he’d take either version.” 

Assuming that state Dems raise enough money, this is a potent message.

Second, next year’s legislative session is in the trash bin.  Unless it’s miraculously salvaged, the poisoned atmosphere between the two chambers, and the usual election year cautiousness, will make any substantive legislation very difficult to pass.

Parade of Bits

Diehl Fundy

Rep. John Diehl raises money tonight in Clayton.  On the host committee – lobbyists Rodney Boyd, Brian Grace and Kim Tuttle, AB’s Ted Powers, AUE’s Warren Wood, Enterprise’s Ray Wagner and Gordon Reel, Express Script’s Michael Harrold, Koman’s Gerrick Hamilton and developer moguls Stacy Hastie and Larry Chapman.

Kander Sprints

In the large contribution list today, Rep. Jason Kander recorded a fresh $30K yesterday as he adds to his SOS stockpile.

House 39

Thanks to the singular John Combest for digging this nugget this morning… Tony’s KC says that Judy Morgan will face a challenge in House 39.  Read it Here.

While the Crowd Below Yells “Jump!”

As various politicos game out the scenarios for LG or SOS, one factor which is coming up in conversations is… family.   In particular Minority Leader Mike Talboy and Sen. Ryan McKenna both have small children.  Political calculations are eternally a sixth sense of these creatures.  But it’s said that they are also imagining the impact a year-long, state-wide run would have on their spouse, children and family.

Me, Odds-maker

Talboy is a less than 5% chance of jumping into Secretary of State, probably lower given that there are apparently two other KC-ites in.

McKenna is 50%, maybe a slight tilt over the edge to 55%.

Republican: McKenna is Strongest Dem Candidate

One top Republican surveying the names that have been floated for Secretary of State says that McKenna would be the toughest for Republicans to face.  He’s a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat.  That gives him crossover appeal. 

And how could he win in the Dem primary with those positions?  First, there’s a fair number of conservative Dems in Missouri.  Second, it gets a lot easier if two more liberal KC Dems are in the primary with him.

Could Get Crowded

But – three men in a Dem primary is practically screaming for a woman.  In other words, we’re teetering on a free-for-all scenario.  The dominoes are Kander (in)… Sanders (said to be in)…. McKenna (50-50)… Woman X (maybe Margaret Donnelly,  or Judy Baker from MidMO?).

Brunner Kicks Off

Germ-X CEO John Brunner finally kicked off his Senate campaign.  Next stop, watch the barbs.  One assumes Todd Akin and Brunner attack each other as they viewed themselves as the real competition.  If it gets fierce enough, can Sarah Steelman find a path between them to the nomination?   

Brunner Ad

The first Brunner TV ad is a good-looking, crisp introduction… See it Here.  Of course the fact he has a very well-produced television ad ready to go the day after he announces will give more fuel to Dem charges that he’s flouted campaign laws by spending money on his race without a committee formed.

Montee “Files Paperwork”

For her LG run.  See it Here.

Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Earl Simms added Missouri Charter Public School Association.

$5K+ Contributions

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,100 from Citizens for Stephen Webber.

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,001 from Andrew O Brien.

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,001 from Burgess & Lamb PC.

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,001 from Holman Schiavone LLC

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,001 from Stephen Gorny.

Friends of Jason Kander - $5,001 from Barry Aycock.

Friends of Tilley - $25,000 from Life Science Fund of Greater KC.

MO Democratic State Committee - $9,600 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Reps. Jerry Nolte (56) and Randy Asbury (53).