Wednesday, October 12, 2011


Senate Pro Tem Rob Mayer announced that his Republican caucus decided to return next Monday when a motion to go to conference with the House will be made.  That was met with sharp inhales from observers wondering if there would be a floor fight on Monday whether to actually go to conference or not.  We will see.  But the votes are there. 


After that it’ll be interesting to see who gets appointed to the conference committee.  During regular session the conferees were: Sens. Eric Schmitt, Chuck Purgason and Brad Lager; Sens. Victor Callahan and Maria Chappelle-Nadal; Reps. John Diehl, Tom Flanigan and Caleb Jones; Reps. Mike Talboy and Chris Kelly.


The Senate’s position in conference is thought to be stronger than the House’s because the House Dems would presumably follow their governor’s stated preference for the Senate position.  However any product of a conference committee still has to pass both chambers…



Speaker T-Jones

Speaker-elect Tim Jones’ golf tournament Monday had about 160 players, most of whom were “real people” (i.e. non-Jefferson City crowd).  Jones is well on his way to establishing himself as the successor to Speaker Steve Tilley as the fundraiser-in-chief for the House Republicans.  Look for six figures when his October quarter is filed later this week.




Jones, along with HRCC finance chair Rep. John Diehl, has been doing “sits” with big donors.  The House Republican Campaign Committee will show $550K raised this quarter.  And as important as keeping their receipts on plan, they’re tracking well on candidate recruitment.  .   Because the redistricting lines are still a mystery, they have candidates for geographic areas rather than specific districts.  Still according to their list of trouble spots, they have almost completely filled out their candidate line-up.


Aaron Willard is still on duty as executive director through the special elections next month.  Then he leaves to join the Ann Wagner campaign, and they’ll probably be an interim ED before finding a permanent replacement.




Like sailboats jockeying for position before the start of the race, there are a lot of Republican eyes on Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder.  As Missourinet writes the long delayed “kick-off” announcement continues to fuel rumors that Kinder won’t ultimately be on the ballot in 2012. Read it Here.


That possibility has presumably put the hold on Sen. Brad Lager from announcing for state treasurer as he’d like to step up a few spots on the ballot if possible.


Meanwhile Rep. Caleb Jones is still in the mix for AG.  (It’s said his October quarter will be a very respectable, for a freshman, $27K.)  Still if Lager were to be a gubernatorial candidate, would Jones might elbow his way over to treasurer and yield attorney general to a congressionally retreating Ed Martin?  Either way don’t expect anything from Jones until after his November wedding.


And of course an additional layer of uncertainty (no House and Senate lines yet) adds to the fluidity.  Later we’ll put on some Pink Floyd and run through the scenarios again and come up with something totally different…



October Quarters

The start of quarterly campaign finance reports:


Sen. Jim Lembke, who has a lot at stake in the redistricting outcome considering he only won by a handful of votes four years ago, has begun raising money for his re-election.  He raised $31K, mostly from PACs and Corps, but without any big checks (largest donation: $3K from Dirt Cheap).  He now has $69K on-hand.


Former minority leader Paul LeVota (running for Victor Callahan’s senate seat) raised a little under $2,767 and has $6,668 on-hand.


Rep. Mike McGhee (running for Bill Stouffer’s senate seat) raised $1,150 and has $1,942 on-hand.



Tilley Divorcing

The Post-Dispatch reported yesterday that Speaker Steve Tilley and his wife have filed for divorce.   Read it Here.  Minor, if any, political impact… his presumed LG opponent, Susan Montee, is also divorced, as is – according to widely quoted statistics – half of everyone who’s gotten married.  It is said that the break is amicable, which minimizes the likelihood of greater damage from whatever messy personal details there might be.




One Republican projects a 200,000 vote loss by President Barack Obama in Missouri, which is part if the calculus of Republican state representatives (Reps. Shane Schoeller, Caleb Jones) figuring this is their chance to make the big leap to a statewide office.



Still can’t find a Redditt Hudson (running for state senate) committee on MEC a month after his kick-off.  See his Website Here.  Meanwhile his likely primary opponent, Gina Walsh’s committee shows incumbent Sen. Tim Green as her treasurer.



Observers expect a resolution telling Boeing that they are valued etc.  But there’s also the sense that Boeing sort of got what was coming to it after years of being relatively unengaged in the Capitol.  One Republican calls them a “Seattle company” that acts like a Seattle company, not a Missouri company.  



$5K+ Contributions

MO Democratic State Committee - $13,083 from Citizens for Paul Woody.

Doctors Rural Political Action Committee - $20,000 from Physicians Professional Indemnity Association.

Citizens for Timothy Jones - $7,500 from Anheuser Busch Companies.




Retired Democratic campaign manager David Chilenski is 36 today and former state representative Charles Schlottach is 56.