Wednesday, October 19, 2011

McKenna Out for SOS

Sen. Ryan McKenna has all but nailed shut the door to a secretary of state bid.  Despite several labor organizations pledging their support to back a statewide run, McKenna has concluded that the personal price-tag is too high.  The prospect of spending the next year traveling the state to campaign for the office and the consequential loss of family time has convinced McKenna that it’s not right for him.


Ironically, those close to McKenna say that his wife has been strongly supportive of the opportunity, so there is a “glimmer” of a chance that he could reverse himself, but that’s highly unlikely.


Ronnie White?

The erasure of McKenna’s name from the pool of possible candidates makes it much more likely that Rep. Jason Kander will have the Democratic primary to himself.  That should provide some vindication to his stalk-and-pounce strategy of playing Robin Carnahan’s exit, which was derided by some as impolite.


Still two Dems caution that nothing’s final until filing next year, and big names could always muscle in late if they develop a taste for a statewide office.  The latest in the string of names along those lines is former Supreme Court justice (and former state representative) Ronnie White.



Still for Senate?

Rep. Mary Still is said to be considering challenging Sen. Kurt Schaefer in Senate 19.  Although the current district tilts Democratic, there’s no guarantee as to how the 2012 lines will fall.  Dems are thought to want Howard County to be in the district with Boone County, while Republicans would benefit from the inclusion of Moniteau County.


Should she decide to take on Schaefer, Still faces several disadvantages.  Chief among them will be fundraising.   Schaefer’s cash on-hand is nearly $200K, and Still has $37K on-hand.  Furthermore, the Jefferson City lobbying corps will be reluctant to donate any money to the opponent of the Appropriations Chair.



Martin’s Math Error

On his latest report, Ed Martin shows $546,410 raised so far in his campaign.  But there appears to be a mistake from double counting some inputs.  His second quarter amount raised was reported at $245K (this included a transfer from his previous Senate committee which was active during the first quarter) and his third quarter tally was $115K, resulting in a number south of $400K rather than north of $500K.


One Ann Wagner supporter says this looks like “Ed is really trying to maximize the perception game that he is keeping up on the fundraising and has a grassroots army, but not that many people have actually donated to him in the 2nd congressional.”


I am inclined to see it as honest mistake, and assume an amended report will be filed soon.  




Word is starting to circulate that Rep. Scott Dieckhaus will take over as executive director of the House Republican Campaign Committee.  Aaron Willard, the current ED, is with the organization through next month.  After he departs Dieckhaus is expected to take the role as “interim” for the 2012 cycle.  Dieckhaus, it is said, will not take a salary.  That’s to avoid any perception that he would be double-dipping in addition to his state representative pay.


Dieckhaus has displayed an energetic enthusiasm for the campaign side of politics and demonstrated a willingness to put in the time and travel to be successful at it.


The next obvious question is whether Dieckhaus will run for re-election in 2012, or seek to transition out of elected office and into a political consultant career.



Taleb on Kinder

No, author Nassim Taleb never directly mentions Peter Kinder in his best-selling book, The Black Swan.


But the perpetual delays in Kinder’s 2012 announcement brought to mind Taleb’s observation that although with most events the more time you spend waiting for them, the more likely it is to happen (each day of living brings us closer to death), sometimes, you reach a point where the opposite happens. 


His example here is a construction project: “Say a project is expected to finish in 79 days.  On the 79th day, if the project is not finished, it will be expected to take another 25 days to complete.  But on the 90th day, if it is not complete it should have 89 days to go.  On the 119th day it should have an extra 149 days.” And on and on.  There are half-finished buildings that will never be completed. 


So it is feels with Kinder’s gubernatorial kick-off.  I doubt we are not a week closer today than we were a week ago.



Events Scheduled Before the Cards Made the World Series

Seems to me if you can postpone a baseball game because of rain, you should be able to postpone a fundraiser for a baseball game…


Tonight Rep. Jamilah Nasheed will be roasted by Speaker Steve Tilley, Rep. Mike Colona and Former Rep. Jeff Roorda among others…

And tomorrow night Rep. Tishaura Jones enjoys a fundy with Mayor Francis Slay headlining the Lola event.  Host committee: lobbyist team Rodney Boyd and Brian Grace; Express Scripts Michael Harrold; Roberts Co’s Virvus Jones, Kwame’s Tony Thompson; AB’s Ted Powers; lobbyist Kim Tuttle; BLA’s Jason Watters; and Dr. Juri McDowell.




Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Jewell Patek added Missouri Independent Oil and Gas Association.



$5K+ Contributions

MO Democratic State Committee - $8,842 from Missouri Employers Mutual.

One Zoo for All - $125,000 from Friends of the Zoo Inc.


Update: I am told that the MEM "contribution" above is actually a refund from MEM to the MO Dem Party for their insurance cost.  And the Missouri Ethics Commission directed the Party to report it.




Happy birthday to Reboot Congress’ Darin Morley.