Friday, April 29, 2011


Revenues Dive

When April’s state tax receipts are announced look for a reversal from the positive trend.  I’m not yet sure how bad, or the reason for the weakness, but it’ll be interesting to see if this brings the year-to-date revenues more in line with the consensus estimate and if it affects the debate during these last two weeks.  More soon.



Scoring the Map

Biggest Winner:  The case could be made that it was Rep. Sam Graves who was the only Republican to see his voting index increase.



Biggest Loser: Rep. Vicky Hartzler conversely lost Republican voting points.  It’s said that the map-drawers didn’t even ask her for to approve the final map even though she had the most changes.  She now has the more liberal Columbia and could be vulnerable from the eastern side of her district (with the right candidate) in both the primary or the general



Biggest Question:  Where was David Barklage?  One active observer says that Barklage was completely unengaged. His clients were involved, but he basically sat it out.  One possible reason for one of the state’s top political consultants to duck the biggest political fight in 10 years is that there remains a strong anti-Barklage faction within the Senate Republican Caucus.  So perhaps he figured he didn’t need any more trouble while his Majority Fund contract is potentially on thin ice.



Nixon and the Map

There’s an unusually high number of Democrats who are thinking Governor Jay Nixon won’t veto the map.  I think it’s a symptom of how little faith the Party has in their governor.  I just don’t see what he has to gain by letting it become law.  Or, what he has to lsoe by vetoing it.


I asked one Dem what the downside of a veto was.  Here’s the reply:


“Upside to not vetoing: don’t get overridden and look weak; don’t give Republicans a reason to hammer you in an increasingly Republican/anti-St. Louis state.  When you spend your life avoiding being seen as Democrat, why plan a purely partisan card. 


“Also, it would appease blacks on both sides of the state, and it would be a favor to Lacy Clay, the two have a relationship (used to play basketball) from when they were in the legislature together.  


“Finally, it’s consistent with the general ‘screw STL, I don’t need them’ governing theme.”



The Anti-Schweich Ad

The television ad for the Democrat who challenges Auditor Tom Schweich has been neatly scripted by Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder’s travel woes.  Any hint of weak knees from the auditor’s office, and you’ll have an ad showing Kinder’s $225,000 going to Schweich, with Schweich absently whistling and looking the other way.



Tilley Offends Cairo

Speaker Steve Tilley responding to reporter questions joked that he’d rather see Cairo flooded than farmland because, you know, “have you ever been to Cairo?”  Read it Here.


He later apologized after receiving 20-30 angry emails.  That means about 10% of Cairo’s population (293) took time to register their fury.



No Nukes

From today’s New York Times:


In an effort to encourage nuclear power, Congress voted in 2005 to authorize $17.5 billion in loan guarantees for new reactors. Now, six years later, with the industry stalled by poor market conditions and the Fukushima disaster, nearly half of the fund remains unclaimed. And yet Congress, at the request of the Obama administration, is preparing to add $36 billion in nuclear loan guarantees to next year’s budget.  Even supporters of the technology doubt that new projects will surface any time soon to replace those that have been all but abandoned.


Read it Here.



Unpaid Invoice

I wrote a few days ago about the Missouri Democratic Party having an outstanding debt to Jay Nixon’s fundraiser Margaret Onken.  The debt presumably dates back before Susan Montee took the reins.  One consultant offered this guess of when Onken will be paid: “(She gets paid) once Nixon does call time and the giver wants not to give to his reelection, but will give to the state party.”



Lobbyists Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Bradford J Allinson added Quantitative Management Associates.


Sondra Roberto added Consumer Union of US, Inc.



$5k+ Contributions

Harrell for Prosecutor - $6,903 from Kanatzar for Prosecutor.


MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Emerson Electric.




Former state representative Belinda Harris turns 60 today. 


Saturday, DED’s Julie Murphy Finn celebrates; and Sunday it’s Nate Kennedy’s birthday.