Friday, January 28, 2011
The State of the Senate Race
Sam Graves
Graves released a poll yesterday to show he was neck-and-neck with McCaskill (down 44-48, with 9 undecided). It’d be an up-or-out proposition for Graves, who’d have to give up his congressional seat in the leap for higher office. But that’s been the story of his career, so don’t think he won’t do it. Word is that he’s taking the weekend to decide and an announcement will come next week. The Graves folks seem to think that Wagner and Martin will stand down should he jump. We’ll see…
Ann Wagner
Wagner is talking like someone who’s in. A Clayton tipster says she was seen meeting with her friend, and powerbroker, Catherine Hanaway last night…
Ed Martin
The boundless energy borders on spastic. The better play for Marin is to parlay this into a primary-free SOS bid. Yet it’s just sooo easy to see him in.
Jo Ann Emerson
According to her Facebook, Emerson slipped on some ice and broke her arm. Ok fine, but still no word on a Senate bid. Her name doers keep popping up so someone must be floating it….
Drebes Best Guess —Steelman, Wagner, Martin with a late candidate from the western side… and a McCaskill November win.
Follow-up To Tilley’s Consultant Cabal
Also in the room two nights ago – Andy Blunt and John Hancock.
Hancock has had less of a consulting presence in the last few cycles. But Blunt was described by one person close to the matter as “possibly the most important person in room.” That’s based on his record of state-wide wins: 2-0, once for his brother, once for his father. Also as the son of a current US Senator, he’s a good one to have on your side if you’re trying to ward off the primary spirits.
A Little Too Much Perspective?
From the historical tomes of Marc Powers:
Speaker Tough Launching Pad
Of the seven previous Speakers to seek a statewide office, only one has won. Here’s the rundown:
Catherine Hanaway (2004, Secretary of State, lost);
Steve Gaw (2000, Secretary of State, lost);
Ken Rothman (1980, Lieutenant Governor, won);
Richard Rabbitt (1976, Lieutenant Governor, lost);
James Godfrey (1972, Lieutenant Governor, lost);
Murray Thompson (1948, Governor, lost);
John Christy (1940, Lieutenant Governor, lost).
And
As terrible as the present condition of the legislative Democrats seems, it can be worse. Right now Republicans control 65% of the seats in the House. In 1929 they controlled 68.67%; and in 1921 they controlled 73.2% of the chamber.
But mostly Dems should be cheered by the historic volatility. The GOP went from 68.67% in 1929 to a sliver of that in 1933 when Dems held 140 of the 150 seats, reducing Republicans to 6.7% of the seats.
On the Senate side, the current 76.5% that the Republicans enjoy is a high-water mark for them. Their all-time Senate low was again from the Depression-era. In 1935, there were 32 Democrats in the Senate and only two Republicans.
Rumorville
House Dems are seeing the end of the Jonas Hughes’ saga. They say that he wouldn’t be able to float in limbo much longer. They expect to see some action for the Attorney General’s office sooner rather than later to force Hughes’ hand. His days are numbered. There are said to be five or six wannabes circling his seat back home…
Congrats
Tony Messenger, the fine Jeff City reporter, announced yesterday that he’s moving to St. Louis… to join the Post-Dispatch editorial board.
Lobbyist Principal Changes
From the Pelopidas website:
John Britton added RYO Cigar Assocation.
Mary Mosley added Missouri NOW and Missouri Women’s Network.
George Wilson added University of Central Missouri.
$5k+ Contributions
Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Simmons Attorneys at Law.
MO Democratic State Committee - $7,700 from House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Save Kansas City - $15,000 from Lathrop & Gage LLP.
Save Kansas City - $15,000 from Kessinger/Hunter & Company L.C.
Birthdays
Former Rep. Van Kelly turns 46 today.
Tomorrow birthdays: Brian Schmidt aka the Brain of the Joint Committee on Tax Policy (28); Rep. Craig Redmon; Rep. Tommy Pierson; Allison Bruns.
Sunday: KCP&L’s Chuck Caisley.