Thursday, January 20, 2011

Well, maybe one domino ahead of myself, but I like the headline

Here’s the deal: Congressman Sam Graves is seriously considering jumping into the Senate race. The timeline for a Graves decision is said to be two to three weeks “max.”  The Graves’ “To Do List” probably looks something like this: run a poll (pick those phones this weekend), flange some voter models, talk to National Republican Senate Committee Chairman John Cornyn, ring up the Top 40 hit list of donors, and then pow!

The Case for Graves

How does Graves beat Sarah Steelman?  He has very strong name ID in the Kansas City market which accounts for a third of the state’s media market.  And in areas where he’s not as well known, there’s no reason he can’t compete against Steelman, who presumably starts with higher name ID due to her previous statewide races.  Graves’ vote against TAARP could appeal to Tea Party activists, and he’s always done okay fundraising in St. Louis County.  

Getting to Lager

If Graves jumps, Sen. Brad Lager would be a natural to jump for the congressional seat.  But it might also attract Sen. Luann Ridgeway as well as former state senator, now Rep. Glenn Klippenstein.

On the Democratic side, an open seat would start some rumblings but the Graves machine has done a good job over the last decade of clearing the lower offices of Democratic prospects.  Look for former Rep. Jason Grill to float his name.  Still one smart observer says it’d more likely be a Skaggs – father or son – who would be the Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile

Ed Martin, in addition to starting his one-minute commentaries on Christian radio, was in the Capitol yesterday hamming it up with Republican legislators.  And he’s been keeping an active speaking schedule in front of Republican groups.  He’s clearly more captivated by federal issues than state issues, but the Graves talks might persuade him to run for Secretary of State instead of US Senate.

The Speeches

Hard to find anyone who thought either Jay Nixon or Peter Kinder gave much of a speech last night.

Nixon was consistently inconsistent.  Sometimes rushing through applause line, other times waiting a beat too long and drawing only a tepid response.  But then Kinder underdid him by staging a talk show format, hosted gamely by Rep. Jeanie Riddle.  All in all, it was a forgettable evening.  Please.

The Budget

The real guts is the budget.  See it Here.

Some initial reactions:

First, it’s a real squeaker.  The starting balance for FY2011 was $54 million.  It’s projected to grow to $155 million. And that entire cushion gets spent in this budget.  The ending balance for FY2012 is $4,240.   The consensus is that as the economy picks up steam, revenues will the surprise on the upside, but with this budget, there’s no room for err on the downside.    And that’s after $56 million in withholds on capital projects and maintenance.

Second, I may be misunderstanding the education dollars, but it looks like there will be trouble again with the foundation formula, creating – again – a batch of “loser” districts.  That would raise the prospect of lawsuits – again – as the state isn’t keeping its commitment.  The governor’s office says it’ll be submitting a supplemental budget for $189 million in federal funds which must be spent this year for education.  They’re asking schools then to save that amount from current budgets for FY2012.  But $189 million still won’t cover the gap.  The document has foundation formula request at $3.2 billion with the governor’s recommendation coming in at $2.9 billion.

Finally, symbolically Republican legislators are surprised that Nixon didn’t shed a single job from his office’s budget given that there at 868 net state jobs being phased out (including 432 in Mental Health, 381 in Social Services and 106 in Senior Services).  And considering the legislature cut its own budget.

Local Control

Yesterday Rep. Jamilah Nasheed passed HB 71, restoring local control of the St. Louis City police force, out of her Urban Affairs Committee.

Pieces on the chessboard are positioned better for local control this year. 

For starters, the odds are that to makes it out of the House, something which it failed to do last year.  The bill has the support of Speaker Steve Tilley, as it did last year.  But, between the influx of freshmen and departure of last year’s seniors, he can lean and shove and push and kick the thing through.

On the Senate side, Sen. Joe Keaveny doesn’t appear to have a patron like Nasheed has found in Tilley, but at least his bill was referred to the Democratically-controlled Progress Committee.   That means Keaveney should be able to get it to the Floor.

That’s where danger lies for the bill this year.  Sen. Jim Lembke will likely be against it.  Keaveny will have to muster some courage he lacked in last year’s firefighter debate.  And joining Lembke could be Sens. Eric Schmitt and John Lamping.  Schmitt was skeptical of the notion last year, and Lamping, who received support from police during his upset campaign, may be a sympathetic ear as well.

However both yearn to play nice with the City, so Mayor Francis Slay has a chance to change hearts and minds.  (And of course St. Louis City needs to choose very carefully which aldermen it sends to lobby the legislature, lest they reinforce the fear of handing over the police department to 28 mini-mayors.)

Finally, Republicans wouldn’t mind seeing this bill land on Governor Jay Nixon’s desk as it would force him to choose between two constituencies, police organizations and St. Louis city residents.

Bits

According to Politico’s Morning Score, Lis Smith was named the communications director for the Democratic Governors Association.  Smith worked on Claire McCaskill’s senate run and then on Chris Koster’s party switch tour.

Meanwhile Jeff Smith, no relation to Lis, is engaged to married this spring.

Zimmerman to Supporters: Stakes Too High to Pass

Here are excerpts from Rep. Jake Zimmerman’s email to supporters readying them for battle in April:

“Because of a voter-approved charter change, St. Louis County will soon have the opportunity to elect a new official: our county assessor. This, as Joe Biden might say, is a big deal… It’s a big challenge, one that will turn Megan’s world and mine upside down for the next few months. (To say nothing of its impact on wedding planning!) But after much reflection we’ve both concluded that this challenge is too important to pass up.

Believe me, the decision to leave the legislature was not easy. After much consideration the bottom line became inescapable: St. Louis county has an urgent need for an open, honest, and responsive assessor’s office. Our neighbors want, need, and deserve someone on THEIR side. That requires a public servant willing to put fairness above politics and willing to make an absolute commitment to accountability. To paraphrase the great Rabbi Hillel: if not me, who?

If not now, when?

The stakes are simply too high to let this opportunity pass by the wayside…”

$5k+ Contributions

Citizens for a Stronger St. Louis - $10,000 from Martiz Inc.

Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Andy Blunt added Lake Ozark Marine Dealers Association, and Missouri Marine Dealers Association.

David Shorr added County of Boone, Boone County Regional Sewer District, Hermann Sand & Gravel Company, Holliday Sand & Gravel Company, J.T.R. Inc, Capital Sand Company, Limited Leasing Co, City of Columbia, University of Missouri-Columbia, and Con-Agg of MO LLC.