Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Haslag: Limited Impact From Fed Tax Cut on MO Budget

Rudi Keller explains Professor Joseph Haslag’s analysis of the federal tax cut on projected Missouri revenues.  See it here.  Haslag see a $58 million hit saying that the elimination of the personal exemption negates much of the doubling of the standard deduction.  $58 million is not chump change, but not the doomsday scenario many observers feared.  Considering reports that 80% of Missourians will see a tax cut, I figured that meant their federal adjusted gross income would be lower and that’s what folks use on their Missouri form.  But apparently I – along with the doomsdayers – was wrong.  Haslag says his model is just plug-and-chug and makes no assumptions on growth rates in the economy as a result of the tax cuts.

Pull Quote: The estimate is based on the data from tax returns filed in 2016 and only looks at the impact of the individual income tax changes on that information, he said.  “This is just a simulation model that computes the immediate impact,” Haslag said. “Basically it is a tax calculator.”

MOScout Readers Poll

Vote in the MOScout Readers Poll: Legislators here.  The “Lobbyists” poll will be tomorrow.

Mr. Tax Cuts

State Treasurer Eric Schmitt cements his brand as top tax cutter.  See MissouriNet’s article here.

Pull Quote: Schmitt has been a relentless supporter of cutting taxes on the national level as well as here in Missouri.  In September, he wrote a guest column in the conservative political website the Daily Caller in which he called on Congress to cut taxes.

Fitch for STL County Council?

Tipster writes that “former St. Louis County Police Chief Tim Fitch is said to be considering a run for the Third District County Council seat held by Colleen Wasinger, a Republican. Since her husband, David Wasinger, is running for State Auditor in the Republican primary, the belief is she will not seek re-election in 2018. Fitch would run as a Republican. He is currently the Republican committeeman from Meramec Township in St. Louis County. The Third District is considered a safe Republican seat.”

Forbes on MO MMJ

Tom Angell in Forbes mentions the multiple medical marijuana proposals in Missouri.  See it here.  The Show Me State could potentially see three separate medical cannabis ballot measures qualify in 2018. Competing teams are currently working to collect signatures for measures that would allow patients to use medical marijuana with their doctors' recommendations. If one or more of the measures pass, the result could be in flux. Whereas the measure with the most votes usually prevails in instances of same-topic questions appearing on the same ballot, in this case two of the measures are constitutional amendments and one is a statutory change. Enacted constitutional provisions take precedence over statutes, of course, but if the statutory measure gets more votes than either of the proposed constitutional changes, it's not clear which would be enacted. Litigation would likely ensue.

eMailbag on Parson

It's not a "style" of presiding.  The lieutenant governor is doing exactly what the rules direct him to do.  Anyone else presiding should be doing the same… If you're that anxious to punch the gas, make certain you've turned the key in the ignition. 

New Committees

Cora Hanf formed a candidate committee (Citizens To Elect Cora Hanf) to run as a Democrat for House 139.  The current incumbent is Republican Rep. Jered Taylor.

Steve Butz formed a candidate committee (The Committee To Elect Steve Butz) to run as a Democrat for House 81.  The current incumbent, Fred Wessels, isn’t seeking re-election.

Farrakhan Shegog formed a candidate committee (Shegog For Mo-86) to run as a Democrat for House 86. The current incumbent, Joe Adams, is running for state senate.

Brian Haskins formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Brian Haskins) to run as a Republican for Jefferson County Council District 1.

Joseph Patterson formed a candidate committee (Patterson For Oakville) to run as a Republican for House 95.  The current incumbent, Marsha Haefner, is term limited.

$5K+ Contributions

Friends to Elect Yates Circuit Judge - $50,000 from Carl Yates.

The Committee to Elect Steve Butz - $20,000 from Steve Butz.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Jay Barnes.