2018 vs 2010
As we look at the state legislative races in November, 2018 is drawing comparisons to 2010.
2010 was the first mid-term election after Barack Obama was elected president. It was huge for Republicans.
A backlash against Obama had formed quickly. In Missouri, Obama was particularly unpopular in the rural communities. Newly energized Republican voters (anyone remember the Tea Party?) turned out on Election Day in 2010 and Republicans picked up an astounding 17 seats in the House.
2018 feels a lot like that. With the roles reversed. This is Donald Trump’s first mid-term. And Democrats have the energy this time. They’ve won two special elections, flipping a House seat in Jefferson County, and a Senate seat in Clay County.
The big question is whether Dems are going to fully capitalize on the opportunity. Here’s why the current consensus is that they won’t…
· Fundraising: As I’ve written before, in many potential competitive districts, Dem fundraising has been lackluster.
· Fundraising (again): Republicans have a lot of money – including $1 million from David Humphreys alone – to spend.
· Organization: Republicans in 2010 had a very well-run organization with complete buy-in from their caucus, allowing them to capture every possible seat.
· Recruitment: Although Dems are contesting more races than Republicans, the quality of Republican candidates is surprisingly strong.
· Mobilization: One lobbyist told me he thought organized labor was well-positioned to take their incredible anti-Prop A mobilization and run it again in November targeting reps who voted for RTW in anti-RTW district. But there’s no evidence thus far of a follow-up campaign from the unions.
And the reason you may see a big year for Dems regardless…. The organic energy on the left catalyzed by the President Trump’s behavior and demeanor could produce a tidal wave that overrides everything else.
Arthur on Solar Permits
Caleb Arthur on Facebook… “Now Greene and Christian county take twice as long for solar permits because they won't let us apply until the utility approves our system. This was implemented on our industry with ZERO calls or emails to us about it. Now our customers get to wait an additional 30-60 days to install solar. Why can't we apply for both at once like we did for 5 years. Government overreach is beyond insane at this point. Thinking about moving my entire business to Colorado where they have statewide quick approval on solar. Wonder why it's hard to run a business in Missouri?...”
Get Well Rep. Corlew
Also on Facebook from Rep. Kevin Corlew’s account… “NOTICE: Today's Ice Cream Social has been POSTPONED. Unfortunately, due to a herniated disc and back spasms that started last night, Kevin cannot make it to the event. We are going to try to reschedule in 2 to 3 weeks, and we'll let everybody know. Thanks for your understanding, and sorry for any inconvenience from this late-notice schedule change…”
Cleaning Out the In-Box
“Observation: Both the Missouri Department of Conservation lawsuit against Attorney General Hawley and the Department of Agriculture, and the AG’s lawsuit against the Administrative Hearing Commission, are the result of holdover appointees by Gov. Jay Nixon…”
“Looking at Jason Hancock’s Kansas City Star story on Josh Hawley and his bogus Catholic Church priest sexual abuse church investigation: the AG and local prosecutors could have had clear and unambiguous authority under Sen. Kurt Schaefer’s 2015 state RICO bill to fully investigate and prosecute this issue. But St. Louis County Prosecutor Bob McCulloch and Platte County Prosecutor Eric Zahnd and the prosecutors’ association killed Schaefer’s Senate Bill 352 that year...”
Washington Post fact-checked an anti-McCaskill ad. See it here. “Three Pinocchios.”
Press release: Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley today submitted a regulatory filing urging the Public Service Commission to adopt more stringent privacy protections for Missouri consumers. The Public Service Commission, which regulates Missouri utilities, is considering rules governing how companies use and share customer information. Attorney General Hawley argued that the Commission should implement a variety of additional requirements, including requiring more detailed disclosures to ensure that consumers can make informed decisions about whether to authorize the sharing of their personal information to third parties; requiring utilities to ensure that their third-party contractors employ adequate cybersecurity measures to protect consumer information; and requiring utilities to notify consumers in the event of a data breach or other unauthorized disclosures of consumer information.
eMailbag on CD-2 Poll
“That's not a great poll for Wagner. I think it's going to be more like +6 Republican instead of +9 like the poll and if undecideds break toward the challenger....and Democratic turnout is higher she could actually lose this thing. More likely it will be 51-49 Wagner but she is not out of the woods.”
“Should have asked a question of which party best represents their views on corruption...”
eMailbag: Notes from the Road…
One MOScouter sent in this… I'm not sure what this says about where I am, but I just passed a truck with a bumper sticker that said "Boobies Make Me Smile" at the same time I saw a Mike Moon for State Representative sign. Somewhere, a big breasted chicken is scared.
House Republican Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Citizens to Elect Bruce DeGroot.
House Republican Campaign Committee - $7,500 from Friends of Glen Kolkmeyer.
House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Gina Mitten for State Representative.
House Victory Committee - $5,001 from Citizens for Crystal Quade.
Fraternal Order of Police Lodge #50 PAC - $6,500 from FOP Lodge 50.
Happy birthdays to Tom Flanigan, Scott Swain, and Kit Crancer.