Introducing MOScout’s “Hallway Index”
This is a new feature. It will normally be in Saturday’s Weekender, but because of Labor Day, I’m unveiling it today.
Each week I will email a question to a “focus group” of about 30 hallway sources to get their read of a situation. Hopefully it will provide us with a vibe for the mood of the lobbying community. Whereas polls provide a snapshot of voters’ opinions, I think a survey of these individuals – immersed in politics – may yield a more insightful point of view. We’ll seeeeee.
This week I asked: Will Claire McCaskill win re-election? 26 responses….
Highly Likely: 7.7%
Somewhat Likely: 65.4%
Somewhat Unlikely: 19.2%
Highly Unlikely: 7.7%
No Opinion: 0%
Most conventional polls currently show voters evenly split, and McCaskill and Hawley neck and neck. But this sampling of lobbyists shows that their consensus tilts toward McCaskill prevailing in the end.
Sample of Opinions
Highly Likely: Trump approval is her greatest threat, but she is a survivor and will have all the $ she needs.
Somewhat Likely: I give a slight edge to McCaskill because I'm not sure that Trump's rural base will match the enthusiasm for turnout from his urban and suburban opponents.
Somewhat Unlikely: Too early to tell. If Trump stays above 50% in MO Claire will be in trouble.
Highly Unlikely: The state has turned too red. Although Hawley has been a terrible candidate he should win handily.
New Anti-Bradshaw Vehicle
A new PAC was formed. It’s called Patients Against Bradshaw Amendment Formally Known As Find The Cures Political Action Committee was formed.
There has been talk of the two other medical marijuana campaigns (New Approach and Patients) joining forces against Bradshaw – especially after he sued to have them both bounced from the ballot. This could be a vehicle from which to launch negative attacks against Bradshaw.
The deputy treasurer of the PAC is Daryl Bertrand. You can read a bit about his story here.
Special Session During Veto
Governor Mike Parson – as rumored – called a special session. It will run during veto session.
The press release: The Special Session will take place the week of September 10-14 and will focus on the passage of computer science course access and awareness of career opportunities through STEM education as well as expanding treatment courts in the State of Missouri… Both leadership from the House and Senate have endorsed the Governor’s decision for a special session. The timeliness of the call to have a special session concurrent with veto session will ensure that this special session is run efficiently, cutting down on any additional costs and saving taxpayer dollars… Though vetoed during the regular session due to problematic language that had been added, both received strong bipartisan support, and Gov. Parson reiterated that this special session is about agreement not division.
eMailbag on Dem Senate Priorities
You failed to mention the [Mike] Cierpiot seat [Senate 8] among the potentially competitive Senate districts… I think it could be. His district is full of the suburban women who have soured on Trump. He’s running against a woman who seems to be a good campaigner… Lots of similarities to the neighboring 17th district.
McDowell Challenge Clock Ticks Down
Jay Ashcroft certified the August elections on Monday, so that means tomorrow is the deadline for a challenge to Saundra McDowell’s qualifications…
Don Hinkle, editor of the Missouri Baptist Convention’s Pathway, gives McDowell a thumbs up on Facebook: I had the chance to join three friends last night in meeting with Saundra McDowell, the Republican candidate for state auditor. We met for more than two hours, discussing a wide range of issues related to the auditor's responsibilities.
I had never met Ms. McDowell, although I did hear her speak once at a candidate forum and I was impressed. After meeting with her last night, my positive impression of her was only solidified. I found her to be engaging, respectful, extremely knowledgeable and guided by a Judeo-Christian ethic (little wonder since she is a graduate of Regent University).
I am supporting her candidacy and I encourage you to pray about what God would have you do and to seriously consider her candidacy for this important position.
GovWatch PAC Research
GovWatch has compiled a list of all the candidates on the ballot in November with a list of the various PAC that have supported and opposed them – and how much those PACs spent. See it here.
It’s an interesting way to see who might have some third-party support or opposition in the months ahead.
Find their ranking of the state House and Senate races here. Their analysis doesn’t show a blue wave, but rather a half-dozen or so hard fought races.
I like this way of looking at the races, I’m going to try to do a MOScout version of this next week
Gardner Vs Police?
Post-Dispatch reports that “St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner is no longer accepting cases from 28 city police officers and is reviewing their previous cases for ‘viability,’ apparently without explanation. Gardner delivered the list of officers to the police department Tuesday, calling it an ‘exclusion list,’ according to documents obtained by the Post-Dispatch… The move is bound to ratchet up tensions between Gardner’s administration and police over her office’s scrutiny of officers’ conduct. Previous clashes include city officers refusing to testify in non-fatal police shooting cases over concerns they, too, could be prosecuted. Gardner also announced in June that she was dropping hundreds of cases brought by a Missouri state trooper whose conduct during traffic stops was called ‘questionable’ and ‘unacceptable’ by Hinkley…”
What It Means
It’ not entirely clear where this is headed, but Republican operative James Harris tweeted: “I think Kim Gardner is trying to prove she is pro-criminal. This will embolden criminals and encourage more families & businesses to flee St. Louis. @clairecmc what do you have to say about Kim Gardner?”
It raised the specter of a new “law and order” issue surfacing in the November elections.
Press release: Governor Parson appointed Judge Thomas N. Chapman to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Western District. Judge Chapman will succeed Judge James E. Welsh, who retired in March… A native of Chillicothe, Missouri, Judge Chapman earned his Bachelor of Arts degree from Westminster College. There, he majored in political science and graduated as Valedictorian of the Class of 1988. Judge Chapman graduated from the University of Virginia School of Law in May 1991… After graduating from law school, Judge Chapman practiced law in Chillicothe for 19 years before becoming a circuit judge for the 43rd Judicial Circuit, Division 1, in 2011. He was elected as the presiding judge for the 43rd Judicial Circuit in 2012…
Parson also announced eight other appointments: Kim Bailey to the State Board of Education; Todd Boland as the Franklin County First District Commissioner; Don Claycomb to the State Board of Education; Gwendolyn Grant and Gary Nodler to the Coordinating Board for Higher Education; John Modest Miles reappointed to the Jackson County Sports Complex Authority; Allen Rowland and Pat Thomas to the Clean Water Commission.
Andrew Blunt and Amy Blunt added Facebook Inc.
Andrew Blunt, Chris Moody, Jay Reichard, Angela Schulte, and Amy Blunt added Oaktree Transportation Infrastructure Fund LP.
Jerry Dowell added Jerry Dowell, and Dowell Consulting Group LLC; and deleted Columbia Chamber of Commerce, and Columbia Community Partnership.
Steven Tilley added Centene.
Steven Tilley and Thomas Robbins added Central County Fire and Rescue.
Mark Bruns and Gary Burton deleted Centene.
Camille Kerr deleted Amgen.
Patients Against Bradshaw Amendment Formally Known As Find The Cures Political Action Committee was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Russell W Jenkins William.
Dorothy Stafford formed a candidate committee, Committee To Elect Dorothy Stafford, to run for Jefferson County Circuit Clerk as a Democrat.
Pharmacist Political Action Committee of Missouri - $20,000 from Missouri Pharmacy Services Corp.
PT-PAC of Missouri - $10,000 from SSM Select Rehab St. Louis LLC.
Advance Missouri - $12,000 from Missouri Republican Party.
Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Political Account - $109,872 from Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.
Happy birthdays to Chris Koster, and Chris Carter Sr.
Saturday: Rachael Klarich.
Sunday: Rep. Phil Christofanelli, and Amy Pridmore.
Monday: Warren Wood.
I’m taking off for Labor Day right about…. now. I’ll have my phone handily all weekend so please call/text/email those hot tips. But, there’ll be no MOScout Weekender tomorrow. (That means no Weekly Poll and “Who Won the Week.”) We’ll return to normal next week. See you Tuesday….