From the trenches…
In Senate 18 one politico says “there were huge digital buys yesterday for Nate Walker… pages funded by Missouri’s Future all positive web videos… Walker wisely advertised on KOMU in Columbia to hit the only swing area late where MATA has pummeled O’Laughlin in the same market for weeks. That is or was her geographic base. Without the trial attorneys O’Laughlin would be at 50 percent. There is no path for Shumake. Any of the other three could win…”
Over in St. Louis another MOScouter thinks that the forecast of scattered showers and thunderstorms should help those who have labor’s backing “because they are coming out regardless.” The number #1 beneficiary of that would be Steve Stenger’s re-election bid as County Executive.
Early Signs Tonight
Want to get geeky tonight watching the returns? One building denizen explained where some early numbers might yield hints of the night’s final result…
Senate 16 – watch Camden County and see how much Franklin gave up to Frederick. That will make the difference in the Brown outcome.
Senate 18 – See what O’Laughlin does in Randolph County… If she does not blow it out of the water there, could be trouble.
Senate 32 – for Bill White’s supposed early gargantuan lead, as validated by polls, he better show it in absentee ballots. If that is even remotely close, could be an issue.
Senate 34 – If Buchanan REPUBLICAN primary voters show up, then it could lift Harry, but I am not sure how this RTW wave of voters will affect the R turnout.
By The Way
The same observer says, “I will pick O’Brian as the surprise of the night…”
New IE Filings
Missouri’s Future - $10,600 opposing O’Laughlin.
Walker’s Not-So-Wowza Quarter
I was wowed last week by Rep. Nate Walker’s 8-Day report showing $164,050 raised with $114,263 on-hand. It appeared that he’d have an overwhelming amount of cash at his disposal for the final week. So much that some wondered how he’d be able to deploy it all.
But, no such problem after all. His amended 8-Day report – which I missed – showed $83,850 raised. $80K less. And then a corresponding $33,663 on-hand. Again $80K less than the original report.
Drebes primary predictions can be found here.
Follow-Up on Parson and RTW
I wrote yesterday afternoon about the blame game and RTW. Here’s another view… “Why would Parson get too out front on a loser early in his term, especially when he needs to take leadership in passing the gas tax in November?... Much cheaper to wait for another legislative chance assuming labor can’t raise $20 million and jazz up its membership every year…”
But the knock on Parson’s pass on jumping out hard for RTW is part of a larger question. It’s a question of whether he’s too squishy on conservative issues.
Whereas Greitens wanted to hoist a flag and talk in stark terms to define himself as a conservative for a future White House run, Parson’s administration appears to be more focused on competence and consensus building. That also can make him appear too deeply entrenched in the Jefferson City mindset of compromise and accommodation.
The presence of Steven Tilley as a trusted figure in Parson’s inner circle gives rise to these suspicions. And how can you question the conservative credentials of a former speaker of the House who spent countless hours, raised countless dollars to election Republicans all across the state? You do so by saying, look he was a lobbyist for AFL-CIO for two years.
Why It Matters
All of this is the beginning of 2020 jockeying. Will Parson get a primary from the right side? My gut says no, but of course it’s absolutely possible. And it would be premised on a narrative that he’s not conservative enough.
On Facebook Rep. Kevin Corlew shares the news that “My car was stolen out of our driveway this evening. If you see the below tan 2007 Ford Fusion (with gold Missouri R-14 license plates, if they're still on it), please notify me or the police. The thieves came in a white mid-size sedan…”
Kurt Erickson writes that “one of former Gov. Eric Greitens’ signature achievements during his short, scandal-plagued career was putting his signature on a so-called `right to work’ law [but] Greitens cannot cast a vote to keep the law in place. According to a review of voting records, Greitens is still registered to vote at the Governor’s Mansion in the capital city. There are no records indicating he has switched his registration to Warren County, where he and his wife, Sheena, own a home in the resort community of Innsbrook….” See it here.
Press release: “Kit Bond Strategies (KBS) is pleased to announce that Mitch Erdel will join the bipartisan firm as Director of Congressional Affairs… Prior to joining KBS. Erdel served as a principal advisor to Missouri Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer. In Rep. Luetkemeyer’s office Erdel acted as the Congressman’s policy advisor on health care, commerce, telecommunications, transportation, infrastructure, energy, agriculture, and trade policy. Erdel also served as a key member of Vice Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference Roy Blunt’s political and official U.S. Senate operations. There he served in legislative and political positions in both Washington and Missouri, including as the Coalitions Director of Senator Blunt’s successful 2016-reelection campaign…”
eMailbag on Website Change
Transition went very smooth on this end
Farm Action Missouri PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Kathryn Jayne Drennen.
St. Charles County Leadership PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Steve Valentine.
29th Senate District Leadership PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Miles Ross.
Committee to Elect Stouffer for Prosecutor - $12,724 from Donald Stouffer.
SaferMO.com - $10,000 from KCI Construction.
SaferMO.com - $9,000 from Realm Construction Inc.
Citizens for Pam Mason - $6,150 from Pam Mason.
SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from Ldeker Inc.
SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from Ldeker Inc.
Missouri’s Future - $7,500 from Presley & Presley LLC.
We Are Missouri - $11,000 from International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 12.
Friends of Bob Cirtin - $17,000 from The Right Track PAC.
Friends of Bob Cirtin - $14,000 from Bob Cirtin.
Majority Forward - $10,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.
Citizens for Steve Stenger - $10,000 from Daniel Ludeman.
Citizens for Steve Stenger - $7,500 from Leonard Dino.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Express Scripts Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from QC Holdings Inc.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $15,000 from Xcaliber International Ltd.
Happy birthdays to Mike Dethrow, and Don Suggs.