MOScout Daily Update: Names for Kenney's Seat - More Election Talk - House GOPers Give $100K to HRCC - Hancock on 2020 and more....
More on PSC
I wrote yesterday about Daniel Hall leaving the Public Service Commission, and the rumors of an appointment for that “Democratic” seat.
One reader reminds me that “Bill Kenney’s term on the PSC has expired as well, so it’s likely [Governor Mike] Parson would appoint a Republican and a Democrat at the same time.”
Possible legislators who could fill the Kenny seat… Reps. Glen Kolkmeyer and Traviz Fitzwater…
Talk from Tuesday’s Special
Ask Revis
One Republican isn’t sold on the suburbs being lost. “Another thing for Dems to remember after last night. Special elections in these districts are unique creatures. They need to look no further than the 97th to see a win in a special and a totally different result in the general. Ask Mike Revis how easy it is to get re-elected…”
Galloway Spin
Here’s a “memo” from Chris Sloan, Nicole Galloway’s campaign manager.
In a story playing out across the country, suburban districts like House District 99 are sharply
trending away from the GOP. The trend in St. Louis County started with Trump’s election in
2016.
· In 2016, Trump performed nearly 6-points worse in HD99 than Romney did in 2012. In 2012, Romney earned 55.19% in HD99. In 2016, Trump earned 49.42% - beating Clinton by less than 5-points.
· In the 2018 midterm election, the district had virtually slipped away for federal GOP candidates. McCaskill defeated Hawley by 9-points and Cort Van Ostran defeated Congresswoman Wagner by 2-points. Nicole Galloway carried the district by a stunning 18.5-point margin. Every other Democrat running in HD99 crossed 50% support.
· By Tuesday’s HD99 Special Election, the district’s blue turn was complete as Trish Gunby scored an 8-point win - running 7-points ahead of the Democratic candidate for the district in 2018...
WSJ: Bad Trend for GOP
An editorial from the Wall Street Journal captures the nail-biting in GOP circles.
Worse than the defeats for Republicans is the voting trend, which continued the suburban losses of 2017 and 2018 that cost them control of the U.S. House…
Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin was crushed in the Louisville (99,000 votes) and Lexington (36,000) metro areas. Mr. Bevin lost the Lexington area by only 10,000 in 2015 and around Louisville by 38,000. But turnout statewide this year was up about 50% from 2015, as Democrats showed again that they are highly motivated in the Trump era.
This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats… The GOP needs a strategy and agenda to regain support in the suburbs or they will lose the House, the White House and the Senate in 2020.
House GOP Determined
Nearly $100,000 from caucus members to HRCC today. They are not deterred by losing a special election in a Democrat district and are just as committed to HRCC’s motto of “One Caucus, One Party, One Mission” as they ever have been.
eMailbag on Wagner
· Republican: “ultimately the biggest impact of tonight in MO is that Congresswoman Ann Wagner will now draw a strong challenge...” Say what? Why now all of the sudden? Hawley lost the district, the Congresswoman lost the district in 2018 and it has been a year since 2018 election day and there are exactly zero Democrats clamoring to run against her. Plus, from what I understand, she has vowed not to pull her punches this cycle and will unleash hell on whatever Democrat pokes their head out…
· Democrat: 3 quality prospective women candidate in MO-2 called me today for advice/to meet... Don’t know if any will do it, but there is renewed interest….
Early Warning in House 44?
Rep. Cheri Tolson Reisch lives in Hallsville in Boone County. She was a vocal opponent of a proposal on Tuesday’s local ballot to give city leaders permission to explore selling the municipal sewer system to a private operator. CTR complained that her monthly bill would go up under private ownership. Two-thirds of Hallsville voters rejected the advice of CTR, the town’s former mayor. This is her base...
Hancock on 2020 Gov’s Race
KCStar’s Jason Hancock surveys the 2020 gubernatorial race. See it here.
He reports…
“Republican Gov. Mike Parson looks poised to sail back into office next November.”
· Early polls show the 64-year-old former sheriff from Bolivar… a substantial lead…
· [He] enjoys a massive head start in campaign cash…
· [He’s] a stalwart supporter of President Donald Trump, who won Missouri by 19 points in 2016.
But there are “any number of factors [that] could emerge to upend the race.”
· “It’s going to be largely dependent on where Trump is, and right now the trajectory isn’t great,” said a longtime Republican strategist…
· Parson wants to spend 2020 “talking about jobs and infrastructure,” said another GOP strategist. “The last thing he wants is to spend a year answering questions about whether rape victims should be able to get abortions.”
eMailbag on Parson’s Broadband Push
Just a note on your “peanuts” comment about rural broadband. The $5M state funding is a match program for the $254M federal program announced as part of the farm bill and FCC authorization last year…
$5K+ Contributions
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from IUOE Local 513 Political and Education Fund.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $15,000 from MO Optometric PAC.
Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $25,000 from DRIVE Committee.
Teamsters Local 618 Drive Fund - $10,000 from Drive Committee.MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Midwest Petroleum Company.
MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Uniting Missouri PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $12,000 from Friends of Rob Vescovo.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Friends of Elijah Haahr.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Citizens for Wiemann.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Missourians for Cody Smith.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Friends of Curtis Trent.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Plocher for Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Patterson for Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Friends of Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Friends for Travis Fitzwater.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Friends of Phill Christofanelli.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Citizens to Elect Bruce DeGroot.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $5,001 from Citizens to Elect Doug Richey.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jeffery Brooks, Cynthia Gamble, John Gamble, Sarah Schlemeier, Sarah Topp, and Olivia Wilson added Fortinet.
David Sweeney added Dominium Development LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Congressman Sam Graves, Sen. David Sater, Jarad Falk, and Doug Ervin.