MOScout Weekender: UAW Region 5 to Disband - Poll on Senate 5 - Hallway on CD-2 - WWTW and more...

UAW’s Region 5 To Disband

Post-Dispatch reports that the “United Auto Workers is abolishing its western regional office, headquartered here, in the wake of embezzlement allegations against top union officials. UAW Region 5 covers 17 states from Missouri to Hawaii. It will be merged into regional offices based in Lebanon, Tennessee, and Lincolnshire, Illinois, the union said in a statement Friday… The UAW has been rocked in recent months by accusations that some of its top officials have embezzled hundreds of thousands of dollars…

The UAW is still working on how to divide up Region 5 between the other two offices…Region 5 represents 37,000 workers in the auto parts, aerospace and beverage container industries. It also represents some student workers in universities….”

According to the latest campaign finance reports, UAW Region 5 PAC had $148K cash on-hand, and UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) had $44K on-hand.

MOScout/Remington Poll: Senate 5

This week’s MOScout poll shows Rep. Steve Roberts and Alderwoman Megan Green in the lead of the four-way Democratic primary in Senate 5 with lots of undecideds.  Furthermore, the Democrats of that district are skeptical of plans to privatize the St. Louis airport.  See the full results here.

Survey conducted December 4 through December 5, 2019. 464 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Steve Roberts, Megan Green, Michelle Sherod and McFarlane Duncan. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Steve Roberts: 24%

Megan Green: 24%

Michelle Sherod: 4%

McFarlane Duncan: 3%

Undecided: 45%

Q2: On the issue of privatizing the airport, do you favor it, oppose it or does it depend on the details?

Favor it: 7%

Oppose it: 27%

Depends on the details: 53%

Not sure: 13%

Q3: On the issue of the city merging with the county, do you favor it, oppose it or does it depend on the details?

Favor it: 29%

Oppose it: 25%

Depends on the details: 32%

Not sure: 14%

Q4: When thinking about your representatives in Jefferson City, is it more important that they stand up to Republicans on issues that you care about or that they work with Republicans to get things done for the city?

Stand up to Republicans on issues that you care about: 34%

Work with Republicans to get things done for the city: 50%

Not sure: 16%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: 2-CD

The question this week was: “How do you see the 2nd Congressional race?”  22 responses… 

RESULTS

1. Wagner very likely to win… 9.1% 

2. Wagner somewhat likely to win… 59.1%

3. Toss up.… 18.2%

4. Schupp somewhat likely to win… 9.1%

5. Schupp very likely to win… 4.5%

Sample Comments

·         NRCC won’t let that seat go.

·         I give Wagner a slight edge due to fundraising. Will be interesting to see if Schupp tries to rally base or paint herself as a moderate like in first state senate race. Either way expect it to be a brutal race with lots of negative ads on both sides.

·         Could be one of the most interesting congressional races in the country. I said toss-up, but maybe I would give the slightest of edges to Jill. She’s a worker. And will have plenty of money.

·         If there ever was an ideal candidate to challenge Wagner, Schupp is the one. 1) She's a woman, mother, community leader, volunteer, and has a faith-based constituency, 2) She has worked her way up in politics - school board, city council, state rep, & state senator - building that base incrementally, and 3) She has championed women's issues, education issues, and has been pro-business in a way that aligns with St. Louis County moderate voters. The question is will there be enough of the St. Louis County left wing anti-Trump anger to outweigh the St. Charles County pro-Trump loyalty?

·         It will end up being relatively close (within 4 points) but I have no doubt that Wagner will win.

Who Won the Week

Jill Schupp – A late start in her 2-CD bid, but a huge first day haul shows she’s working fast to make up ground.

Tort Reformers – Big check from Rex Sinquefield to Rep. Curtis Trent sends message that there may be a big push (yet again) for tort reform this session.

Missouri teachers – The State Board of Education debates serious steps to lifting teacher salaries.

Jeffrey Earl – Highly-respected Parson staffer gets promoted to Legislative Director.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+Contributions

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Friends for Gina Walsh.

Missourians for Healthcare - $6,315 from Affinia Healthcare.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

Quality Building PAC - $25,000 from Fairway Management Inc.

Quality Building PAC - $25,000 from Capital Health Management Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $30,000 from Southwestern Bell Telephone L.P., d/b/a AT&T Missouri.