MOScout Weekender: Senate Conservatives' Message - WWTW - Job Approvals - Hallway Index and more...

Senate Conservatives Start FB Page

As we head into the final week, there are a number of dynamics and relationships which will impact various pieces of legislation.  Those which have the lobbyists most worried are:

·         The relationship between the governor’s office and the legislature.

·         The relationship between the House speaker and floor leader.

·         The relationship between the House and Senate.

·         And the relationship between the Conservative Caucus and the Senate Republican “Regulars.

On that final bullet-point, it might be helpful to watch a new Facebook Page apparently started by the Conservative Caucus.  See the MOSenateConservatves page here.

A recent post declares, “We support the $1B expansion for General Motors and the investment of private industry in Missouri. These employers need a state that's open for business and doesn't make emotional decisions on a whim based on the political pressures of the day. We suggest legislative leaders come to the table with solutions that:

Don't create a slush funds for the private sector.

Don't suggest free college for adults, unless it comes attached to some serious reforms for K-12 education.

Don't get sloppy with ‘special laws’ and Christmas Tree amendments that haven't been fully vetted by the legislative process.”

 

MOScout Poll: Bird’s-Eye View

The MOScout Weekly Poll shows that job approvals.  Both President Donald Trump and Mike Parson are at 51%, but the governor’s disapproval is much lower than the president’s.  Auditor Nicole Galloway has a solid net approval, but fair number of voters aren’t sure about her.  The state legislature remains generally unpopular, as is the former governor.

Survey conducted May 8 through May 9, 2019. 984 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3%.  See the full poll here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 44%

Not sure: 5%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 22%

Not sure: 27%

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of Nicole Galloway’s job performance as State Auditor?

Approve: 41%

Disapprove: 15%

Not sure: 44%

Q4: Do you approve or disapprove of the State Legislature’s job performance?

Approve: 23%

Disapprove: 42%

Not sure: 35%

Q5: What is your opinion of Eric Greitens?

Favorable: 25%

Unfavorable: 44%

No opinion: 31%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Gov’s Session

This week, I asked the lobbying corps to judge Governor Mike Parson’s session. “How has Governor Parson done in his first legislative session as governor?” 27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Much better than expected…. 3.8%

2. Somewhat better than expected…. 11.5%

3. Somewhat worse than expected…. 27%

4. Much worse than expected…. 7.7%

5. Too early to say. (There’s still a week left)…. 50%

Sample of Comments

·         Showing up and being folksy in the hallways goes a long way. One difference is he has served with these legislators. Even Nixon didn’t have that because of term limits. He’s broken the Greitens/Nixon mold and isn’t above fraternizing with the lowly legislators. If the GM deal gets done, it’s a big success.          

·         Right now it’s not looking great. His workforce and infrastructure plans were either scrapped or watered down significantly. He has CAFOs and .......... what else so far? He’s gonna need a good final week to have a decent showing.         

·         If session ended today, it would be pretty unsuccessful session for him. If he gets Wentzville finished and a few of his workforce things in the next six days, it will be a good session.

·         Too early to say. His session will be measured by the outcome of the GM and 3 workforce development proposals.         

·         With all the fanfare of his ascension to the office and his experience in the House & Senate, to be honest, I expected more. Hardly his fault the Senate and House haven’t been more functional, just expected he would be able to navigate it and grease the wheels better.       

·         The GM deal I think will dictate the final answer. His relationship is worse than expected with the House and slightly better than expected with the Senate. I think Friday the 17th is when you have to make the final call.     

·         He has shown little ability to move legislators on any issues. His invisible hand is without a hand. Whatever the topic, if he comes to the house or senate floor, it isn't going to make a difference. Perhaps its just because he's a nice guy. He doesn't carry a big stick. Major reforms languish under his watch.

·         The expectations for Governor Parson were high, especially with his long established relationships with key members of the Legislature as well as his overall style and affect.  However, Parson seemed surrounded by a bubble which didn't permit him to deploy his charm and political acumen which created unnecessary fights and isolation from the 3rd Floor.  This may be turning a bit and and with this GM Opportunity he could have a new beginning.  Let's hope so.

 

Who Won the Week?

Jason Holsman – Super-minority member tied the place in knots, in order to do the right thing for the people trying to do the right thing.

Mike Parson – The General Motors incentives have given new life to a lackluster session for the governor and put him on the path to being able to declare some victories.

Senate Republican Stoppers – With one week left, the Conservative Caucus is well positioned to stop PDMP from happening; and the Southeast Duo is in good shape to stop charter school expansion and ESA.

David Winton, Michael Grote, and Caleb Jones – Helped put on a touching event to raise money for medical bills for a tough nine-year old, and gave everyone a chance to pause and put things in perspective.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Jeffrey Altmann added CDB Kratom.

Courtney Mertens added Curo Group LLC.

Phillip Scaglia deleted Senworth.