MOScout Weekender: Parson Signs Abortion Bill - Humphreys' Next Move - Poll: MO Pro-life and Pro-Roe v Wade - Who Won the Session and more...
Parson Signs Abortion Bill
Governor Mike Parson signed the abortion bill yesterday. KCStar reports: Parson signed a bill Friday morning criminalizing abortion after eight weeks of pregnancy, forgoing a public event and instead ratifying the new law in a private ceremony in his Capitol office.
The move comes one day after one of the Missouri GOP’s most prolific donors vowed to bankroll efforts to repeal the new law if Parson didn’t veto it.
Parson’s spokesman, Steele Shippy, said the governor had intended to hold public events to sign the legislation but changed plans because of recent severe weather around the state, including a tornado near the statehouse in Jefferson City.
One lobbyist quipped the bill signing was “much like an unwanted pregnancy - you just want to get it over with as soon as possible and keep it quiet…”
Meanwhile
David Humphreys gave $25K to Next Gen GOP PAC. That’s a third-party PAC aligned with Rep. Shamed Dogan – the only Republican to vote against HB 126.
Humphreys’ Next Move
Humphreys is said to be considering putting the issue before voters. One building denizen tells me: “I don't think Humphreys can actually put HB126 on the ballot similar to how the unions did RTW since it has an emergency clause on part of it. He would likely have to do his own initiative petition…”
That means that instead of a straight up or down on what just passed. Humphreys could craft the language to something that fits his vision of how the police should be – and has a stronger chance of passage.
Once you start going down that road, you’re probably considering a constitutional change (requires more signatures) too rather than a statute which the legislature can mess with the next session.
MOScout Poll: Abortion
I may do more issue polls like this in the future because I find this one to be pretty fascinating. Missourians (matched to expected 2020 turnout demographics) generally consider themselves pro-life, but don’t want to overturn Roe v Wade. And the exceptions for rape and incest tilt the majority’s opinion about outlawing abortion.
Also unexpected – to me – no significant difference in opinions between men and women.
Survey conducted May 22 through May 23, 2019. 1,042 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3%. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.
Q1: Do you consider yourself generally pro-life or generally pro-choice?
Pro-life: 57%
Pro-choice: 43%
Q2: When is the time period when it is ok for a woman to have an abortion?
It is never ok: 46%
During the first eight weeks of pregnancy: 25%
During the first twelve weeks of pregnancy: 17%
At any point during the pregnancy: 12%
Q3: Would you support a ban on abortion in Missouri with no exceptions for rape and incest?
Support: 32%
Oppose: 54%
Not sure: 14%
Q4: Would you support a ban on abortions in Missouri with exceptions for rape and incest?
Support: 51%
Oppose: 34%
Not sure: 15%
Q5: Do you think Roe v Wade should be overturned?
Yes: 40%
No: 47%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Who Won the Session
In place of Who Won the Week, here’s the Hallway Index with some offerings of Who Won the Session. I curated a bit to avoid duplication (and potential libel suits!), but you might find some contradictions among the variety of opinions….
· Governor Parson won the session. With defeat all around the Governor's team through April the dominos fell almost perfectly for the Parson team in the final weeks. GM led to fast track and bonding got done in the final hours with all of the headwinds. LIHTC was also a win for the Governor because it showed the Legislature is unable to create reform and hands it to the Governor, who now has a freehand to do basic caps/reforms through his executive power and take the win.
· Pro-life organizations: Passed one of the most restrictive abortion bills in the country.
· Senator Hough & Luetkemeyer - showed considerable potential as freshmen to get major pieces of legislation through the senate
· Mixed bag for most involved. Parson got workforce development but not LIHTC. Conservative caucus caused chaos but caved on GM deal without securing much in return.
· Trial lawyers were able to neuter the venue bill and kill the rest of the major tort reform measures.
· Haahr, Rowden, and Schatz. But especially Rowden. He was deliberate and effective… juggling a divided House, the Gov, and factions within the Senate to produce a reasonably successful Session for Republicans.
· Vescovo. First floor leader to be in charge of the House since Diehl.
· Lobby Corps: with no senate logjam, people got their bills through at the end. And a low number of total bills passed means it’s likely less bad stuff happened. Pass the good bills, kill the bad bills. All in a day’s work.
· Nexus Group: Secured $70 million in funds to improve the Enterprise Center and held off attempts to block the development of the Grain Belt Express transmission line.
· The boys of Flotron McIntosh (McCracken and Brunner) – Kept their heads down, and dug out some nice wins despite the mini-chaos unleashed by their boss being in the headlines.
· Lauren Arthur- last session she was a sophomore member of the super minority party of the lower chamber. This year she passed 3 top priorities and made key friends in the Senate.
· Senate Conservative Caucus wins for being mentioned in every news article covering session. They didn’t get the wins they sought in their first year, but their influence continued the legislature’s lurch to the right.
· Senate “Non- conservative caucus” Republicans - 1) to the public/their constituents they can claim victory on several issues including abortion, tort reform, etc 2) within the building they reestablished control of the agenda instead of ceding to the conservative caucus and salvaged the end of session.
Lobbyist Registrations
Aaron Baker and Hannah Beers deleted Jared Enterprises, Kirksville Regional Economic Development Inc, Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri, and Missouri Physical Therapy Assoc.
$5K+Contributions
Next Gen GOP PAC - $25,000 from David Humphreys.
Committee for KC Jobs - $10,000 from JE Dunn.
Committee for KC Jobs - $15,000 from The Builders’ Association
Committee for KC Jobs - $15,000 from Western Missouri and Kansas Laborers’ District Council.
Monday Birthdays
I’m taking Monday off. So here are the Memorial Day birthdays….
Former Sen. Bob Dixon, Becky Lohmann, Scott Leiendecker, and KMOX’s Debbie Monterrey, who shouts out everyone else’s birthdays.