MOScout Weekender: Walker Resigns - Huge Turnout in 2020? - Senate 33 Poll - Hallway Worries - WWTW and more....

Huge Turnout Coming in 2020?

From Bruce Mehlman’s visual-storybook update on the 2020 election (see it here)…

If actual voting once again exceeds enthusiasm to vote, expect highest turnout since 1896 (which was 79.6%)

 

Walker Resigns

Post-Dispatch scoops that “St. Louis County Executive Sam Page is set to announce on Friday he has hired state Rep. Cora Faith Walker as director of policy, a top position in his cabinet, a source said. Walker, D-Ferguson, 34, resigned from her seat in the state House of Representatives on Friday at 8 a.m. with a letter to Gov. Mike Parson….”

One MOScouter says… “A good move.  She’s smart and she will do more good there than in JC plus more $$$ for her…”

 

Windham, Young Dem of the Year

Rep. Kevin Windham Jr. on Facebook writes…

Big Announcement(short): I'm the 2019 Young Democrat of the Year as awarded by the Missouri Democratic Party.

Big Announcement(long): As some of you may know, I am Young and I am a Democrat. As a young Democrat I've taken it upon myself to find ways for the Democratic Party to grow and prosper. In my pursuit of a more perfect Democratic Party my efforts and endeavors were recognized as I will be recognized by the Missouri Democratic Party as the 2019 Young Democrat of the Year at the Truman Dinner on August 17th at 7pm. I plan on delivering a substantive speech about why I believe that I received the award.

 

Worse than Cigs?

Washington Post this yikkers of a storyAs e-cigarettes have skyrocketed in popularity among teenagers in the past two years, pediatricians report seeing teens who behave less like tobacco users and more like patients with substance-abuse disorders.

Some young people have resorted to stealing from their parents or selling e-cigarette paraphernalia to support their habits, addiction treatment specialists said. And even though many teens assume e-cigarettes are safe, some turn up with signs of nicotine toxicity, a condition previously seen in young children who accidentally ingested nicotine gum. Others are reporting respiratory problems…

Doctors said they believe the behaviors of teens addicted to e-cigarettes could be linked to their design: Many products, including Juul, allow users to ingest far more nicotine than they would with traditional cigarettes. Concerns over teen use fueled a ban on e-cigarette sales that was adopted in June by San Francisco — a move that made it the first major city to prohibit the nicotine-delivery devices….

 

MOScout Poll: Parson – Senate 33

This week, the MOScout Poll asked about the brewing Senate 33 Republican primary.  We’re about a year away from the primary.  No one starts in the lead here.  See the full results here.

Survey conducted July 24 through July 25, 2019. 510 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 83%

Unfavorable: 12%

No opinion: 5%

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Parson?

Favorable: 54%

Unfavorable: 12%

No opinion: 34%

Q3: What is your opinion of Mike Cunningham?

Favorable: 37%

Unfavorable: 12%

No opinion: 51%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Van Kelly and Robert Ross. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Van Kelly: 16%

Robert Ross: 15%

Undecided: 69%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Next Session Worries

This week I asked what poses the biggest threat to a productive session in 2020?  23 responses…

1. Election year posturing… 34.7%

2. CLEAN Missouri battle… 13.1%

3. Senate Republican in-fighting… 47.8%

4. House Republican in-fighting… 0%

5. Something else… 4.3%

Selected Comments

·         Everything else can be overcome without too much fanfare. Senate in-fighting can shut the place down.

·         Parson is playing the statesman and making nice with the conservative caucus, but will their senate colleagues do the same? I doubt it.

·         Because of the rules of Senate and what we saw from them this year I think this is the easiest and most obvious choice. The dark horse could be house republican in-fighting with Haahr in his lame duck session and Vescovo ascending to power.

 

Who Won the Week

Ann Wagner – Rumors have her Democratic challenger, Becky Morgan, reconsidering the race.  Wagner is in a suburban district where President Trump isn’t a political asset.  But you can’t beat someone with no one.  And right now it appears Dems have no one.

Mike Parson – Abortion will be back.  But for now, Parson gets to talk about his signature issues – jobs and infrastructure.  Another nice win this week as his bonding program was triggered.  That means $300 million heads to bridge repair.

Republican consultants – 2020 is shaping up very nicely.  A half-dozen GOP Senate primaries, a couple high-profile ballot initiatives, and five statewide incumbents to protect.  Plenty of work for everyone.

Crystal Quade – Not easy to drive the agenda from the House Minority Leader’s office.  But a well-crafted, well-timed public letter about kids losing healthcare coverage did the trick.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

$5K+Contributions

XCaliber MOPAC - $10,000 from Bruce Taylor.

XCaliber MOPAC - $10,000 from Lee Levinson.

International Union of Painters & Allied Trades PAT Federal PAC - $10,000 from IUPAT Political Action Together Political Committee.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Gary Grewe.

 

Reminder: No MOScout on Monday

Out on vacation… See you Tuesday….