MOScout Weekender: Readers Explain MO - Poll on Senate 27 - Hallway on Floor Leader Race - WWTW and more.....

Readers Explain Missouri

In response to a reader blurb yesterday about the inconsistencies in Missouri voter patterns – voting for an increase in minimum wage, against RTW, yet for Republican statewides and legislative supermajorities – a few folks sought to explain…

·         Straight partisans will have a hard time understanding that Missouri voters may actually be rational in voting for specific policies but against party politicians.  It’s understandable for a voter to support Republican candidates based on 1) preference for that individual over the Democratic candidate, 2) general support for the party’s platform, and/or 3) extremely strong support for a single issue (guns/abortion etc.).  Does that voter have to then blindly accept everything the Republican Party decides it stands for?  Politics is only a team sport in the Capitol where pressure from leadership and colleagues keeps the team together.  Outside of the Capitol people can embrace the chaotic freedom to make up their mind independently on issues.

·         What Republicans figured out but Democrats haven’t is that many voters no longer connect nuts and bolts public policy that directly affects their lives with elected officials.  Instead candidate elections are about identity politics, not actual public policies.  Ballot issues are decided in part on identity but much more on how that policy will affect them.  Candidate races are decided on "whose on my side (race, culture, etc.)" so candidates with unpopular policy positions can mask that with the right identity message.  Kander came so close because he was able to position himself that way.  If/when Dems figure out how to either do much better on identity message or better at helping voters understand connections between elected officials and basic public policy, they will be much more competitive.  When you hear rank-and-file conservatives and liberals talking with each other about issues, often they are much closer in their positions than one would think and can find compromises.  Throw in the broader identity stuff though and fights break out.

 

Galloway Takes One More Step

Kansas City Star reports that “State Auditor Nicole Galloway filed paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission on Thursday declaring she intends to run for governor in 2020. She has not made any formal public announcements about her run for governor, and a spokesman for her campaign declined to comment Friday morning… Parson is expected to formally announce his bid for governor next month in his hometown of Bolivar. Galloway’s entry into the 2020 gubernatorial race has been rumored for months. Those close to her campaign say her interest in the race peaked when Parson signed legislation banning abortion in Missouri after eight weeks of pregnancy….”

We could see an official announcement as early as the end of next week.

 

MOScout Poll: Parson – Senate 27 GOP Primary

This week, the MOScout Poll continues its series of Senate primary races.  I asked about the Senate 27 Republican primary.  Survey conducted August 7 through August 8, 2019. 520 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.3%. See the full results here.

Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Favorable: 82%

Unfavorable: 12%

No opinion: 6%

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Parson?

Favorable: 47%

Unfavorable: 11%

No opinion: 42%

Q3: What is your opinion of Wayne Wallingford?

Favorable: 35%

Unfavorable: 11%

No opinion: 53%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Holly Rehder and Kathy Swan. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Holly Rehder: 26%

Kathy Swan: 27%

Undecided: 48%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?

Evangelical: 21%

Trump: 46%

Traditional: 19%

Libertarian: 2%

Something else: 12%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Floor Leader

This week I asked who would become the next House Floor Leader.  The election isn’t until November 2020.  The lobbying corps clearly thinks this is now a two-person race.

1. Chuck Bayse… 0%

2. J Eggleston… 0%

3. Dean Plocher… 61.5%

4. Curtis Trent… 38.5

5. Someone else… 0%

 

Selected Comments

·         No one will outwork Curtis Trent in this race. He has been seen at almost every legislative event around the state.

·         Plocher is a talker, but money talks.

·         [Plocher because] fundraising matters. In a world where limits exist you need a dynamic leader that can raise money from individual donors as well as secure large checks from corporate PAC's. That is the new norm.

·         At this point it is probably [Plocher’s] to lose, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Curtis win. These races come down to a lot of factors, but the most important is the one on one interaction with their colleagues. Either one will need to spend a lot of time in the car traveling to districts.

·         School choice is the only thing that divides the caucus. Republicans are unified on guns and abortion. Plocher is asking educators to support him and he’s getting wishy washy. It’s turning some folks off. Since there are about 80 votes for charter school expansion and it seems to be the biggest divider for hardliners in the caucus, it’s a real miscalculation on his part.

 

Who Won the Week

Dean Plocher – Rep. David Gregory’s endorsement adds to his vote column, and now the Hallway gives him the slight advantage over Curtis Trent to be the next Majority Floor Leader.

Casey Wheat – HRCC’s executive director pulls off a successful summer caucus reportedly raising over $500K. 

Lee Ann Pitman – Some portion of that fresh $500K will likely be pumped into the House 99 special election to make sure Republicans hold the seat.

Road Heads – After years of being stymied in their pursuit for bigger budgets by stingy voters, infrastructure fans can be cheered by Governor Mike Parson’s interest in “asset recycling” as an alternative solution.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

$5K+Contributions

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Cheyenne International LLC.

Credit Union Political Action Committee of Missouri - $10,000 from CommunityAmerica Credit Union.

IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri - $10,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Interested in Registration and Education PAC.