MOScout Weekender: Big Checks Continue - New Statewide Poll - Hallway on Trump Margin - WWTW and more...

Big Checks Continue

A month from Election Day and the big checks are still coming into campaigns…

·         The Republican Governors Association sent a fresh $3 million to their Missouri committee.  That money will end up in the pro-Mike Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri, which has been running an independent campaign for Parson.

·         Rex Sinquefield sent $50K to North Missouri Leadership PAC.  That’s a pro-Cindy O’Laughlin PAC.  She’s not up for re-election.  But perhaps she will use it to help out fellow Conservative Caucus member, Sen. Andrew Koenig?  We’ll see…

·         Jeanne Sinquefield sent $150K to the pro-Caleb Rowden PAC, Missouri Forward.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide Survey

Note: This was conducted after the presidential debate, but before the president’s COVID diagnosis.

Survey conducted September 30 through October 1, 2020. 980 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See full results here.

Q1: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 51%

Joe Biden: 46%

Undecided: 3%

Q2: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 51%

Nicole Galloway: 44%

Undecided: 5%

Q3: Generally speaking, who do you trust more to handle the economy? Republicans or Democrats?

Republicans: 53%

Democrats: 42%

Not sure: 5%

Q4: Generally speaking, who do you trust more with issues of public safety?  Republicans or Democrats?

Republicans: 52%

Democrats: 43%

Not sure: 5%

Q5: Generally speaking, who do you trust more to handle the COVID-19 outbreak? Republicans or Democrats?

Republicans: 48%

Democrats: 45%

Not sure: 7%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Modest Trump Win

The Hallway sees a solid 5-10 point win for Trump in November.  Again, this was done after the first debate, but before the COVID diagnosis.  29 replies…

RESULTS

1. Biden wins… 13.8%

2. Trump wins narrowly (within 4 points)… 13.8%

3. Trump wins solidly (5-10 points)…. 69%

4. Trump wins overwhelmingly (11+ points)… 3.4%

Sample of Comments

·         Trump wins by 6-8. Not enough to drag the Rs down ballot in close races across the finish line that were dependent on his 19pt win in 2016.

·         More on the 5 side than the 10 side. Which means all down ballot races will have a long night.

·         Both are idiots and cannot stand either one. But we are a Red state now.

·         Trump wins, just not as much as last time.

·         I heard a national "expert" on the radio yesterday say that either "Biden either wins by a LOT or Trump narrowly wins". That makes me interested in whether pres election polling has gotten back on track in terms of accuracy since 2016 or not.

·         4-6 point win

Who Won the Week?

Mike Parson – Maintained good humor and sunny disposition in the face of his COVID diagnosis.  Plus, another $3M from RGA.

CLEAN – Released the first ad of their campaign opposing Amendment 3 (aka CLEANER).  A couple folks told me they thought it was the best ad in Missouri so far this cycle.

Chris Hager – The Democrat running against Rick Roeber wouldn’t have stood a chance.  But public accusations from Roeber’s daughter now put the seat in play.

Lauren Arthur – GOP talk of targeting Senate 17 seem to only highlight how strong a position Arthur holds in her re-election campaign.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Republican Governors Association - Missouri - $2,500,000 from Republican Governors Association (Washington DC).

Uniting Missouri PAC - $3,000,000 from Republican Governors Association Missouri.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $150,000 from RAGA Action Fund (Washington DC).

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Southern Glazers Wine & Spirits of Missouri.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $100,000 from American Federation for Children (Washington DC).

Missouri Forward PAC - $150,000 from Jeanne Sinquefield.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Continental Investment LLC.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprises Services LLC.

Missouri Forward PAC - $7,500 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

North Missouri Leadership PAC - $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Lincoln PAC - $10,000 from Phoenix Home Care.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $11,141 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Missouri Gaming PAC - $6,850 from Isle of Capri Casino, Boonville.

MO State Teacher Assoc Legislative Impact Co - $6,500 from Southeast Region Teachers Assn. Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. John Rizzo, Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal, Zora Mulligan, and Josh Foster.

Sunday: Jerry Nolte and Randy Asbury.