MOScout Daily Update: Children's Division Cuts - Double Dip Fears - MOGOP Mum on Election - Hospitalizations Pass 2,800 Mark and more...

STL City Filing Opens

The race to be the next St. Louis City mayor officially starts today as filing opens.

·         NARAL PAC endorsed Treasurer Tishaura Jones even before filing opened!

·         President of the Board of Aldermen Lewis Reed said he’ll be filing.

·         Also, expected to run: Alderwoman Cara Spencer and Dana Kelly.

·         Post-Dispatch surveys the field here.  It says Rep. Donna Baringer is looking at the race, as well as Collector of Revenue Gregg FX Daly.

Double Dip Fears

From WSJ’s Real Time Economic morning newsletter: Are we heading for a dreaded W-shaped recovery? Forecasters in the U.S. are starting to downgrade expectations for the final months of 2020 and the opening months of 2021 as coronavirus cases surge, restrictions on activity increase and Congress declines to provide more stimulus. J.P. Morgan Chase is now looking for a double dip. "This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q, albeit at 'only' a 1% annualized rate," bank economists said in a research note. Credit Suisse downgraded its 1Q forecast to a mere 0.7% growth rate.

What It Means

Although state tax receipts have remained strong so far this fiscal year, the weakness around the corner should keep lawmakers conservative as they start planning their next budget.

Children’s Division Cuts Bemoaned

Springfield News Leader reports on the impact of cuts at the Department of Social Services’ Children’s Division.

Due to budget cuts, almost 100 positions within Missouri's child welfare agency were eliminated in July.  Now Children's Division employees — both former and current — are speaking out, saying the cuts have reduced support for (often inexperienced and overburdened) frontline workers who then have to make life-altering decisions for Missouri families… All of the employees and former employees shared a common worry: They say that because so many supervisor positions have been eliminated, the workers who respond to hotline calls and are out in the field conducting child welfare investigations no longer have the necessary support to help them make decisions and work through very complicated situations.

Waiting on MO GOP to Accept Election

MOScouter: “I feel like it’s a pretty big deal that only two state reps [Reps. Shamed Dogan and Doug Richey] have had the courage to acknowledge who won the presidency.  The US Senators and other statewide office holders… are clearly avoiding saying it out of fear of a primary opponent from Trump’s base.”

And

Carl Bernstein “outs” Republican senators – including MO’s Roy Blunt – who have privately articulated their disdain for Trump while allowing his “I won the elections” farce to continue.

Follow-Up on Roden

I wrote last week that Mark Roden is already building out a campaign structure for a 2022 run for Senate 2 (St. Charles, Onder termed).

Of course, there will be a redrawing of lines before then.  And one St. Chuck player points to a bevy of state representatives who will definitely be watching the process as they make their plans.  It’s hard to imagine we won’t see some of them jumping into a St. Charles state senate race.

Hospitalization Watch

According to the state COVID dashboard, hospitalizations have now surpassed the 2,800 level.  That’s quadruple the level we were at back in June.

Follow-Up on Redistricting

One savvy politico who’s looking forward to watching next year’s congressional redistricting process offers an insightful nugget: “Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler has the fewest friends in the building.”  She served in state House in the 90s, but that as before most current representatives were in the game.

In some respects, redistricting is like playing a board game.  There are certain constraints on what moves are constitutionally possible.  But in many other ways, it’s important to have allies in strong positions if you care about where the lines ultimately fall.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Insurance Coalition PAC - $6,000 from Ace American Insurance Co.

Missouri Farm Bureau Fund for Real Representation - $6,081 from Missouri Farm Bureau Federation State PAC.

Democratic Governors Association - Missouri - $59,567 from Democratic Governors Association (non-corporate).

Lobbyists Registrations

Tom Rackers added Sonny's Solid Waste Service, Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Brian Bunten, Sam Wiles, and Cynthia Davis.