MOScout Daily Update: MO Nears 5K COVID Deaths - Hearing Scheduled for Hill Resolution - CRE Announced and more...
5,000 Death Milestone Coming
As of yesterday morning, the state’s COVID dashboard showed 4,450 deaths in Missouri. I’ve written this before: the way the data is presented, the trailing seven-day average severely understands the current rate of death.
· The dashboard says that the number of deaths is now averaging around 11/day. It is actually probably about three times as high.
· Likewise, the dashboard says that deaths have declined 58% comparing the deaths in the last 7 day to the preceding 7 days. That is so misleading that a random number generator would probably give you something closer to the truth.
· For months the dashboard has shown death declining at very high rates, while deaths have generally increased.
From my reading of the data, it’s probable that Missouri’s COVID death toll will hit 5,000 this year.
Hill “Don’t Accept the Results” Resolution
Rep. Justin Hill’s resolution asking that Congress “refuse to accept electoral votes for the office of President of the United States from the states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada” is scheduled for a House hearing Monday at 5PM.
The resolution (see it here) is actually quite different than the Texas lawsuit. It doesn’t mention the process that the states employed to set their election rules, nor does it mention that a statistical analysis showing Biden only had a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000 chance of winning – as the Texas lawsuit does. (Pennsylvania thinks this claim might be suspect).
Hill’s reasons for rejecting these states’ results seems to have come from a hodgepodge of “internet research.” The Springfield News Leader notes this… The resolution includes several claims about irregularities in those states that appear paraphrased from a recent post on the U.S. website of a conservative British newsmagazine. Among the claims is one that says, without citation, that 86,000 absentee ballots cast in Pennsylvania are “questionable.” Another says 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing in the state’s Delaware County, also with no citation. The latter claim mirrors allegations made by a Republican poll watcher whose statements have been rejected in court.
66 Republicans are cosponsoring the resolution.
CRE Announced
Press release: The annual CRE is a figure established by state budget experts and outside consultants and is one of the basic assumptions used by the Governor and legislative leaders to build and balance Missouri’s budget… The key figure in the CRE is the projected general revenue collections. Net general revenue collections in FY22 are expected to be $9.78 billion. This represents a net decrease of $418.8 million over the estimated revenue for FY21.
The estimate for FY22 assumes a decrease of 4.1 percent. The revised estimate for the current fiscal year (FY21) is $10.2 billion. This estimate is artificially high due to the income tax filing date being moved from April 15 in FY20 to July 15 in FY21, resulting in two income tax filing dates in FY21. The FY22 estimate reflects a return to a single filing date in the fiscal year…
Governor Parson will detail his proposed budget for FY22 during the State of the State address in January.
More on Gov Streamlining Early Childhood Services
One reader cheers the plan by Governor Mike Parson to consolidate programs and services into a single administrative structure.
This is so needed—Missouri has one of the most fragmented early childhood systems in the nation. It is such an opportunity to have a Governor who understands that we will never have the state we want without investing more in early childhood. So much research shows that kids who don’t get what they need from 0-3 already demonstrate adverse outcomes, and our school system can’t fix those deficiencies. Kids who are behind when they enter kindergarten remain behind in third grade and beyond. And so much of this is not “education” in the ways that we typically conceive it. It is about a child having a safe, stable and nurturing environment in the earliest years—it’s not about teaching kids letters and numbers. Creating one office will go a long way towards improving efficiency and stewardship of early childhood funding and ultimately creating better outcomes for kids. I see this as a bright spot in a dark year…
Occupational Therapists Hire Representation
In the lobbyists registrations (below), Kyna Iman added Missouri Occupational Therapy Association. According to their website (see it here), it’s the first time they’d hired a lobbyist in three years.
One of their top goals: Occupational Therapy Licensure Compact. See it here.
Jefferson City Indivisible Fined
The Missouri Ethics Commission find Tony Smith and Jefferson City Area Indivisible $1,100 for various campaign violations in conjunction with their support for Medicaid Expansion. See the consent order here.
eMailbag: GOPers on Fighting Election Results
· Spot on by saying we have been “Lou Dobbed.” I’ve been only watching Maria Bartiromo, Lou Dobbs and NewsMax since the election. It’s my safe place.
· Many Missouri Republicans who express their support for the Texas Lawsuit are not automatically yelling about bad guys behind every tree. Rather they are expressing their discomfort with election officials in said states changing the election rules without legislative or constitutional authority. That is not conspiracy theory or wacky. That is support for the Rule of Law.
Lobbyists Registrations
David Sweeney added Community Support Program.
Kyna Iman added Missouri Park and Recreation Association, and Missouri Occupational Therapy Association.
$5K+ Contributions
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Health PAC.
UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) - $6,000 from UAW Region 4 Exchange Account.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Rep-elect Dean VanSchoiack.