MOScout Weekender: 73% MO GOP Think Trump Won - GOP Splits on Blunt-Greitens - WWTW and more...

WSJ on Farr

Wall Street Journal published a long and in-depth article about Emerson CEO David Farr’s navigating the COVID crisis.  It’s full of lots of color.  Find it here.

·         This could all be managed, Mr. Farr thought. Seeing the Chinese government deal with the virus early in the year and reopen without major outbreaks gave him some confidence. “I got into a lot of heated battles around here in St. Louis because I had the opinion that you can live with this virus,” he said.

·         A worker on the fourth floor of the headquarters building had come down with symptoms resembling Covid-19 after a ski trip in Colorado. Over the next few days, the company decided to shut down most of the building and have most people work from home. The executives stayed on the sixth floor. Mr. Farr paced the quiet offices and looked out with frustration at the empty parking lots.  It took 15 days for the test results of the suspected infection to come back. It was negative.  “I can’t just wait for 15 days to take action,” Mr. Farr said.

·         With a few hundred coronavirus cases emerging in Mexico, the governors of several Mexican states issued stay-at-home orders and told nonessential businesses to close.  [Emerson] enlisted Mexico’s ambassador in Washington to coordinate with her counterparts in Mexico City in a push to reclassify Emerson’s plants. It failed. Mr. Farr reached out to the White House for help, including talking to President Trump to make his case. “The president said just move the plants back” to the U.S., Mr. Farr said. “That is a good idea sure, but not something we can do today.”

·         Missouri didn’t require mask use in public, and messages from health and political leaders were conflicting. For months, Mr. Trump refused to wear a mask and declared their use voluntary. Mr. Farr had worn a mask twice since the lockdown began. Once was during his home haircut and another was on a trip to a Walgreens pharmacy… But summer was making Mr. Farr uneasy… Mr. Farr saw his neighbors having parties and knew people weren’t behaving themselves. “Those are the things I have to worry about on a daily basis rather than figuring out what competitor I want to kill,” he said. He noticed that when employees saw executives weren’t wearing masks, they would remove their own.  Mr. Farr changed his habit, and started donning a mask to walk down the hall to the restroom.

Remington/MOScout Poll: MO Republican Mindset

Survey conducted December 2 through December 3, 2020. 840 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  Find full results here.

Q1: When a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available, will you get vaccinated?

Yes, you will: 60%

No, you will not: 24%

Not sure: 16%

Q2: President Donald Trump has claimed that he won re-election, and that Joe Biden’s victory is only due to fraudulent voting.  Do you agree with President Trump?

Yes, Trump won: 73%

No, Trump did not win: 20%

Not sure: 7%

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Roy Blunt and Eric Greitens. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Roy Blunt: 43%

Eric Greitens: 32%

Undecided: 25%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2024 Republican Primary Election for President of the United States are Josh Hawley, Mike Pence, and Ivanka Trump. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 29%

Mike Pence: 32%

Ivanka Trump: 13%

Undecided: 26%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Traditional and Establishment, Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Libertarian, an Outsider or something else?

Traditional and Establishment: 19%

Evangelical: 18%

Trump Republican: 44%

Libertarian: 3%

Outsider: 5%

Something else: 12%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Most Likely to Succeed… Incoming Freshmen GOP Senators

Lobbyists look to Sen-elect Holly Rehder and Jason Bean as particularly bright spots among the incoming GOP Senators.   27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Jason Bean… 33.3%

2. Rick Brattin … 3.7%

3. Karla Eslinger… 11.1%

4. Elaine Gannon… 3.7%

5. Mike Moon… 0%

6. Holly Rehder.. 48.1%

Sample of Comments

·         Success isn’t a metric that everyone can agree on. I’d say the Joker was very successful at sowing chaos.  That said, it would seem like Bean is staking out a claim of being a thoughtful policy person and anyone that worked with his dad knows they are good folks.

·         Bean seems like a savvy business guy that will build relationships well with his colleagues.

·         Holly Rehder will be a bridge between the Conservative Caucus and the rest of the senate.

·         Long term- Elaine Gannon will have the most successes. She has a reputation of working with a broad audience, she's professional, and her own person. She doesn't need to be told what positions to take by often a male-driven leadership. Gannon has authentic support from her constituents because she's earned it through long community engagement.

·         You also should have had a catch all "Anyone But Moon" category…

·         After visiting with each of them, I believe all of them have a good mindset, and while have different views and priorities, will succeed.

·         Institutional knowledge is key in the Senate and Holly’s history in the building is really unequaled of any incoming Senator in recent memory. Even her most recent efforts on PDMP has forced her to become invested and familiar with the internal politics of the Senate. She starts out head and shoulders above any of her incoming colleagues.

·         Bean has an ideal disposition to make and marshal deals through the senate. Reminds me a bit of Caleb Rowden. People like him.

·         Rehder is very smart and very strategic. Most importantly, she surrounds herself with people who pay attention to the nuts and bolts of the entire building, so she sees all angles.

·         Rehder and Bean close 1 and 2.

·         [Rehder] is smart, experienced at working with diverse coalitions, avoids drama (even when others try to pull her into it), and has a spine of steel. I always want her on my team.

·         Everyone likes Jason and he has a great family that gives him some additional credibility. He has the best opportunity of the freshmen class and I would look to him to take on a handful of issues that are winnable.

·         I say Holly because she has the head start of being the most successful so far. Plus she’s very likeable and that’s important in the upper chamber. Would be cool to see her in a floor leader or pro-tem spot in the coming years.

Who Won the Week?

Eric Schmitt – Grabs a court win on SB 5, and announces the arrest of a murder suspect from a 1986 cold case.

MATA – Most observers expected a hard-fought compromise to come out of the COVID liability special session, not a quick retreat by the governor. 

Transportation advocates – Once more with feeling!  The generals are marshalling their armies again to take a transportation tax to the voters in 2022.

Andrew Koenig – After winning his “upset” re-election last month, he looks to be in the middle of some of the most high-profile legislative battles of the upcoming session: Reining in COVID restrictions, implementing Wayfair, and pursuing educational reform.

Find a downloadable version here.

Gubby Appt

Governor Mike Parson appointed Julia Pusateri Lasater as Associate Circuit Judge for the 21st Judicial Circuit. She will fill the Associate Circuit Judge vacancy created by the retirement of the Honorable Mary Bruntrager Schroeder. Ms. Lasater, of Kirkwood, currently serves as an Assistant Prosecuting Attorney in the St. Louis Count Prosecuting Attorney's Office. She holds a bachelor's degree from Maryville University and a Juris Doctor from the St. Louis University School of Law.

eMailbag: Reader React

·         Regarding special session comment; “does the author understand who reads your (Drebes) Column? Obviously not, because all of your subscribers have their own knowledge to assess the silliness of the writer’s assertions. Kind of makes you wonder if they thought they were talking to an uninformed jury, I mean audience.”

·         RE comment about national tort reform lobbyists...Do we really need to tally the # of tort wins the tort coalition has delivered over the last few years? Sounds like sour grapes from a registered gallery watcher naive enough to think anything could pass the House and Senate unanimously...

·         One note to your points on the Superintendent Pay from this morning.  I would argue Taylor’s bill is not a true hard cap on what the district pays a Superintendent but a pro-teacher pay bill.  A district could pay their Superintendent what they see fit as long as they raise the average teacher pay in the district to fit that 3.5%.  It is just as important to attract good teachers.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Chris Pickel.

Sunday: Joe Bednar and Teresa Coyan.