MOScout Daily Update: Political Consultant Payments 2020 - Next Session Outlook - More on Auditor's Race - Hawkins Takes Bureau Reins and more....

Political Consultant $$$

With the 30 Day After Reports filed, I ran a few reports on the Missouri Ethic Commission website, searching for payments to some well-known political firms and consultants.  Here’s how much some of them were reported being paid in 2020.  The caveats: This doesn’t include federal campaign and corporate clients obviously.  And many of these figures include reimbursements whether for the cost of mailers, or TV buys.

Republican

Thompson Communications / Patrick Media - $4,913,740

Axiom Strategies - $3,232,001

Victory Enterprises - $3,187,812

Palm Strategy Group - $573,724

Capital Enhancement LLC - $477,698

Capitol Consulting LLC - $324,782

Carolinas Campaign Consulting / Capitol Strategies Group- $303,158

Barklage Company / National Research Strategies LLC - $227,398

Hancock and Prouty LLC - $137,079

Capitol City Research LLC - $70,627

Veritas PR - $51,905

Democratic

MO Political Consulting - $341,826

Fourth City Strategies - $266,180

Show Me Victories - $244,040.83

Tightline Public Relations - $135,201

Public Eye - $119,491

Highlander Political Strategies - $40,106

What Will Next Year (As In, Next Month) Look Like

Folks are considering how COVID will shape the political year ahead.  I’ve written before about the question of Governor Mike Parson’s inauguration.  There still hasn’t been any indication how it will be handled in this time of COVID.  Public health officials would surely recommend against an indoor party/ball.  But Parson has been reluctant to abandon traditions this year.  It fits his general orientation of “learning to live with the virus.”  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a traditional inaugural ball – masks optional.

A more important question is how the legislative session will unfold.  The general consensus is that it will start up as it ended: live streaming committees, written testimony encouraged, a rotunda devoid of exhibitions, and hallways without busloads of school children.  Essentially, an emptier building filled mostly with the professional classes of legislators, staffers and lobbyists.

·         But one lobbyist sketches the very likely scenario where a senator tests positive, forcing a half-dozen other senators and staffers to isolate and immediately bringing the session to a pause.

·         One senator told me vehemently: “I don’t care if I’m positive, you won’t be able to keep me out of the building if there’s an issue being debated on the floor.”  In other words, the session could have a lot of starts and stops.

·         One staffer worries more about the House – more people, less spacing – than the Senate.

What It Means

There’ll be a premium on getting your legislative priorities moving fast right from the start because of the uncertainty of potential shutdowns.

More on the MOScout Poll

Last weekend’s MOScout/Remington poll showed some surprising (to me) results.

·         73% of Republicans said that they believed that Donald Trump won re-election.

·         44% of those polled considered themselves “Trump Republicans,” the largest bloc within the Missouri Republican Party.  Compared to, for example, 3% who identify themselves as “libertarian Republicans.”

·         But the Trump devotion doesn’t appear to transfer easily to his children.  Ivanka Trump trails Mike Pence – and Senator Josh Hawley – in a theoretical 2024 match-up.

What It Means

Trump, even in defeat, retains a magnetic hold on Republicans.  Trumpism = the party’s base.

And it explains why former Governor Eric Greitens has embraced the Trump disinformation campaign as he seeks to position himself for the future.

Hawkins Takes Farm Bureau Reins

Garrett Hawkins was elected the new president of the Missouri Farm Bureau.  He beat “MOFB Vice President Todd Hays and former Farm Service Agency Administrator Richard Fordyce.”

·         One building insider called it an “interesting development. [He was] the youngest candidate by far… he also worked as Chris Chin’s deputy in the Department of Agriculture.” He expects Hawkins to bring a great deal of political savvy to his new office.

MOScouter on Auditor’s Race

I disagree with your comparison of the 2018 auditor race to 2022.  I think a more likely scenario is a heads up between Fitzpatrick and McDowell. No one outside a few insiders had any clue who David Wasinger or Paul Curtman was, and no one, period, knew who the other nobody was. Wasinger didn't end up spending what some thought he would. It was a perfect storm for a tinfoil hat outsider and sole woman to slip through.  Many things are different this time. First of all, after her abysmal 2018 general election effort and failed 2020 primary of an incumbent governor, more Republicans who pay attention have seen enough to know that they don't like what they see. That will likely lead to a greater desire to close ranks around one mainstream candidate and prevent a 2018 redux.

If you agree with the above, it's tough to see how anyone other than Fitzpatrick would be that candidate.

·         He's already a statewide official with some - though not overwhelming - statewide name ID, compared to legislators who are known by few outside their districts.

·         He's well-respected for his policy and budget acumen and knows state govt inside and out, which should probably be the most important prerequisite for the job.

·         He just raised almost 7 figures last cycle, and can write himself a 7-figure check if necessary.

·         Nobody sane* is getting to his right in a primary.  (*May not include McDowell)

eMailbag on Republicans Who Think Trump Won

For your GOP question asking whether Trump won, you should have asked whether there was a second shooter on the grassy knoll, if the moon landing was staged and if the Holocaust was real. Just to parse out the crazies and see if it lines up.

New Committees

STL Regional Chamber PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Sarah Vatterott.

Lobbyists Registrations

Megan McBride added Schnucks; and deleted Rebuild Saint Louis, Inc.   

Joshua Klarich deleted Missouri Midwives Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Kiki Curls, Rodney Hubbard, Nick Maddux, Bree Bowen, and Churie Spreng.