MOScout Daily Update: Sanders and Swing Districts - Pro-Mantovani PAC - Bloomberg Endorsements and more...
It’s Super Tuesday. 14 states vote today carrying about a third of all Democratic pledged delegates.
More on Sanders
One Dem: You nailed my fears about Bernie Sanders. He’s got a very real path to victory (arguably better than the moderates). But it’s a path that wins by picking up disaffected Trump voters that want to tear down the system, while losing many moderates and suburban voters that will hold their nose and vote for Donald Trump because they fear socialism or any radical change… That means swing districts become far more difficult for us, so even if we win the presidential race, we have a harder time picking up state leg seats and even risk losing some… it’s hard to imagine [CD-2] that went for both Claire McCaskill and Ann Wagner being excited about Sanders…
What It Means
If Sanders is the nominee look for House Dems to change their target districts. “STL County seats may get tougher while COMO, Springfield, maybe even somewhere like JeffCo, may become more culturally in play. I don’t think we even quite know yet where Sanders could be effective vs where he may be toxic but the map could certainly start to change a lot…”
One of Those Districts
In the candidate filings (below) Jean Pretto filed to run in House 94 as a Democrat. That sets up a rematch from 2018. She’ll face Republican Rep. Jim Murphy. Murphy beat Pretto in 2018 by 51% - 49%.
Election Wildcard: The R-Word
In addition to supply chain problems and lower global growth, Coronavirus is creating uncertainty damaging to the business environment. Two points from the WSJ’s Daily Shot this morning…
· According to JP Morgan, the S&P 500 now implies a 57% chance of recession, while the 5yr Treasuries indicate an 86% probability.
· Goldman's US GDP tracker points to sub-1% growth in the current quarter.
Coronavirus Daily
· Tuesday, March 3, 2020, Governor Mike Parson will join Cabinet members, external stakeholders, and Missouri State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) officials for a briefing and press conference regarding COVID-19. Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (DHSS) Director Dr. Randall Williams will provide a briefing on the virus and the state’s precautionary measures… To date, there have been no confirmed cases of the virus in Missouri…
· In light of the ongoing developments related to the current coronavirus (COVID-19) situation and its impact on financial markets, Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft is reminding investors in Missouri to beware of con artists seeking to capitalize on fear and uncertainty.
Pro-Mantovani PAC
Yesterday in the large contributions there was a $250,000 check from the Carpenters PAC to Change STL PAC.
Change STL is a pro-Mark Mantovani PAC.
What It Means
· Mantovani won’t be carrying the full freight of his County Exec race this time. He’s building a donor base.
· It appears that the Carpenters’ break with Sam Page stems back to an apprenticeship program. See it here. The size of the check makes a statement that they’re all in on this election.
Uniting MO’s New Web Ad
The Uniting Missouri PAC today launched a campaign aimed at encouraging Democratic Party officials throughout Missouri to join the Republican Party.
The web video—which is targeted at current countywide Democratic elected officials—shows how the Democratic Party of Bernie Sanders and Nicole Galloway no longer reflects the views of most Missourians….
Over the past several months, more than two dozen elected officials have left the Democratic Party and joined the GOP: Dunklin County Assessor, Dunklin County Commissioner, Dunklin County Coroner, Dunklin County Prosecuting Attorney, Dunklin County Public Administrator, Iron County Sheriff, Lafayette County Prosecuting Attorney, Lafayette County Sheriff, Livingston County Clerk, Marion County Sheriff, Marion County Assessor, Pemiscot County Sheriff , St. Francois County Sheriff, Ste. Genevieve County Sheriff, Washington County Sheriff…
Bloomberg Endorements
Mike Bloomberg’s Missouri team announced two new endorsements.
· Former St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley today endorsed Demoratic candidate Mike Bloomberg for president. Dooley, a seasoned public servant, understands the intricacies of the political process and believes the former mayor is the only candidate who can defeat Donald Trump.
· Former Missouri State Representative Stacey Newman endorsed Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg for president. Newman praised Mike’s unparalleled record on gun violence prevention and reproductive rights.
Voter ID Again
Post Dispatch reports that “a Republican plan to tighten Missouri’s voter ID law was approved in the House on Monday. The proposal, sponsored by Rep. John Simmons, R-Washington, moved forward with a vote of 109-45. It now goes to the Senate. The legislation would replace a provision that governs provisional ballots for voters without a photo ID, after the Missouri Supreme Court ruled last month that it was unconstitutional. Under Simmons’ proposal, voters casting a provisional ballot would have to sign a form stating they’ll return to the polling place the same day with a valid ID to have their vote counted. The ballot would be counted if a person’s signature matches what’s on file with election authorities….”
New Candidate Filings
Jean Pretto filed to run in House 94 as a Democrat. She’ll face Republican Rep. Jim Murphy. Murphy beat Pretto in 2018 by 51% - 49%.
Ron Copeland filed to run in House 143 as a Republican. He’s the fourth Republican to file to replace termed Rep. Jeff Pogue.
New Committees
Mindi Smith formed a candidate committee (Mindi Smith for Missouri) to run for House 2 as a Democrat.
Lobbyist Registrations
Rich AuBuchon added Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri.
Zack Brown added Missouri Association of Realtors.
Heath Clarkston, Doug Nelson, and Kurt Schaefer added United States Chamber of Commerce.
Mike Gibbons and Tricia Workman added Elle Management LLC.
David Shorr added Orscheln Management Co.
John Bardgett, Erika Leonard, Chris Roepe and Jacqueline Bardgett deleted Lavvan, Inc.
George Oestreich deleted MM Enterprises USA LLC.
David Linton deleted Lake Perry Lot Owners Association.
Patrick Lynn deleted Carvana, and The Kelley Group Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jason Groce, Heath Clarkston, Maria Walden, Brooke Foster, and John Hancock.