MOScout Daily Update: March Revenues Down - Withholds Announced - Parson and the Statewide Order and more....
Parson Announces Withholds
Press release: To ensure a balanced state budget and the necessary funds to combat COVID-19 going forward, Governor Parson is planning to restrict $180 million in spending. More may have to be restricted in the future depending on how extreme the economic impacts of COVID-19 become…
In addition to the $180 million in state budget restrictions, the Governor’s Office is hopeful for an additional $315 million in federal funding this year to help with the shortfall.
See the list of withholds here.
· Higher Education get hits again. Every governor – Republican or Democrat, young or old, tall or short – has always cut Higher Ed during tough budget times. Mostly because: “It’s where the biggest pot of money is.” Also, they usually reason that the institutions have the ability to offset some of the cut with higher tuition or fees.
· The mighty Jason Rosenbaum tweeted an astute observation: A reminder that as long as higher education institutions are funded primarily with general revenue they will always get cut during bad budgetary times. Maybe this is the wake up call to get colleges and universities funded with some other revenue source…
March Revenues Falter
According to the daily revenue numbers, March tax receipts fell 4.19% compared to March 2019. Perhaps we’ll get more clarity when the official numbers are released, but my initial assessment is that there’s not a lot of coronavirus impact here.
· Sales and use tax receipts were 5.59% HIGHER than a year ago. So the shutdown of the restaurant and retail sectors of the economy are really seen in these numbers.
· Individual incomes was down – 8.92%. So of that could be people who would have filed in late March who deferred until new July date. But I’d expect again for this number to really deteriorate next month.
· Fiscal year to date, receipts are still 5.82% ahead of last year. That will evaporate next month.
· It’s clear the governor really needed to implement the withholds.
Parson and the Statewide Order
A great deal of discussion has focused on Governor Mike Parson’s decision to not issue a statewide stay-at-home order. When we look back at this crisis, there will be many different critical decisions and actions (executive orders, timing of mobilizations, logistics, personnel). But the lack of a statewide order seems to have captured a lot of attention.
· Parson is imploring people to stay at home. He just has been incapable of going the final step, and using the power of his office to mandate it.
· Democrats are being consistently vocal about the need for a statewide order. But there’s bi-partisan support for it. And nonpartisan associations and business leaders have joined the chorus daily.
Kansas City Star reports on this here… Despite national and statewide pressure to implement a stay-at-home order in Missouri, Gov. Mike Parson said Wednesday he still wasn’t ready to do that. Yet Missouri finds itself increasingly outnumbered by states that have decided to go beyond merely asking residents to stay at home. On Wednesday, Florida and Mississippi announced they would join more than 30 other states that have issued stay-at-home orders…
The governor has argued a one-size-fits all approach won’t work in Missouri, highlighting the difference between urban and rural communities around the state. He regularly mentions that most Missouri counties still have few positive COVID-19 cases, and many have none at all.
“Right now there’s still 95 counties in this state that has less than five cases of coronavirus in it,” he said Tuesday. “The majority, 75 of them, has one or two. I have to take all that into consideration as I make decisions on how it affects the economy and how it will affect those areas.”
Yet, Missouri’s numbers show that the virus is firmly inside rural communities all across the state. Cases in Camden County, near Lake of the Ozarks, went from 1 last week to 17 on Wednesday. Christian County, south of Springfield, has 11….
Why Parson Is Probably Wrong
Reacting to data means you’re behind the curve. By the time you see cases, you’re playing catch-up. New York Times reports on this phenomenon here. It means if you think the virus isn’t in rural areas because there aren’t reported cases, you’re not thinking about this crisis correctly.
And – also from the New York Times: [P]eople may be passing the virus on to others even when they feel fine…
Dems New 2020 Message
Although the call for a statewide order has come from nonpartisan sources, it’s clear that the governor’s inaction gives Democrats “much better messaging than they normally have.” Here’s a House Dem twitter video gives a rough outline of how this could be messaged in November.
It would dovetail with a likely national message focusing on President Donald Trump saying things like: “When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
Finally
Interesting study from the Kaiser Family Foundation looking not at the spread of the virus, but who’s most at risk to developing a serious illness from it. [B]ased on the most current information made available by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), older people and younger adults with serious medical conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, lung disease, asthma and obesity have a greater risk of becoming severely ill if they get infected with coronavirus. CDC has issued specific guidance for people who fall into these categories.
They estimate that more than 40% of Missourians (older than 18) are at risk of serious illness if they’re infected by the virus.
Other Bits
· Uncontested… By my count there are 52 House districts with no Democratic candidate, and 30 districts with no Republican candidate.
· Governor Mike Parson appointed Judge W. Doug Thomson to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Western District. Judge Thomson will succeed Judge Victor C. Howard who retired in November 2019.
New Committees
Brant Harber formed a candidate committee (Committee to Elect Brant Harber) to run in House 98 as a Republican.
$5K+Contributions
Sander for Missouri - $7,500 from Christopher Sander.
Friends Of Kathy Swan - $6,000 from William Swan.
MILA PAC - $5,400 from Security Finance of Missouri, LLC.
Lobbyist Registrations
John DeStefano and Megan McCann added Anthem, Inc. and Its Affiliates.
Franc Flotron, John Gaskin, David McCracken, Bill Stouffer and Richard McIntosh added KDK Technology LLC.
Frank Plescia added Horizon Therapeutics; and deleted Association of Dental Support Organizations, Bellevue Pharmacy / Pharmacy Services Inc., Biotechnology Innovation Organization, Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner LLP, Delaware North Companies Sportservice Inc
Missouri Industrial Energy Consumers, Performant, and The Boeing Company.
Gamble and Schlemeier deleted Visit KC.
Guy Black and Lewis Mills deleted Missouri Industrial Energy Consumers.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Wes Sutton, Winton Calvert, and Tony Monetti.