MOScout Weekender: Parson Issues Order - Cook Changes Guv Race Rating - Nixon Tweets - Poll on Senate 5 and more...

Parson Orders Statewide Stay-At-Home

Reversing course, Governor Mike Parson signed off on a statewide stay-at-home order.  See it here.

The move was greeted with relief in most corners. 

But there was some grumbling among conservatives online (“government shouldn’t tell me what to do” etc), and one Republican confided in me that he was worried Parson would “get crucified by both sides.”  The fear is that the right side doesn’t like the heavy hand approach, while the left will see allowing non-essential businesses to continue to operate as inadequate.

Cook Changes Gov’s Race to Likely GOP

The much-followed Cook Report changed their rating on Missouri’s gubernatorial race from Solid GOP to Likely GOP.

There was a threat, until Tuesday's filing deadline, that Greitens could run in the primary and try and make a political comeback, and Uniting Missouri, a super-PAC supporting Parson, has already spent $1.7 million on TV and radio ads trying to strengthen the governor for such a fight. But a bigger threat is now in the general election, where his handling of the corona crisis could harm him even in a red state.

Democrats landed State Auditor Nicole Galloway to run, and have signaled they intend to make this race a top priority. She has criticized Parson in recent weeks and has called on him to issue a stay at home order, which Republicans and Parsons rebut as playing politics in a time of crisis. A Remington Research poll conducted 3/11-12 gave Parson a 52%-39% lead, with a 54% approval rating on par with Trump. But at that point, the state only had two confirmed coronavirus cases; it now has 1,581 and 18 deaths, as of Thursday evening.

Still, Galloway has a long way to go to make this a truly competitive race, and we're skeptical it can fully get there in a presidential year in a state Trump carried by 18 points in 2016, even though those margins may well decrease this year. Many of the state's metro areas are growing and, along with them, seeing suburban shifts away from the GOP, especially in and around St. Louis and Kansas City.

However, Parson's missteps over the past week combined with a strong candidate in Galloway can't be ignored, and this is more of a race than others in the Solid Republican column. So we are shifting it into the Likely Republican category.

Nixon Weighs In

Former governor Jay Nixon hasn’t been one to lob criticism of his successors, but he weigh in on twitter yesterday.  See it here.

Why are Missouri DHSS testing guidelines more restrictive than federal CDC guidelines and other states?  More testing crucial now.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 5

Survey conducted April 1 through April 2, 2020. 486 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.6% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Lyda Krewson’s job performance as Mayor of St. Louis?

Approve: 52%

Disapprove: 29%

Not sure: 19%

Q2: The candidates in the August 4th Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are William “Bill” Haas, Megan Ellyia Green, Jeremiah Church, Michelle Sherod, Steve Roberts and McFarlane Duncan. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

William “Bill” Haas: 14%

Megan Ellyia Green: 16%

Jeremiah Church: 7%       

Michelle Sherod: 9%        

Steve Roberts: 18%

McFarlane Duncan: 1%           

Undecided: 35%

Q3: What is your opinion of the city government’s response to the coronavirus?

They’re overreacting: 8%

They’re handling it correctly: 51%

They’re not doing enough: 29%

No opinion: 12%

Q4: What is your opinion of the state government’s response to the coronavirus?

They’re overreacting: 8%

They’re handling it correctly: 26%

They’re not doing enough: 58%

No opinion: 8%

Q5: What is your opinion of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus?

They’re overreacting: 6%

They’re handling it correctly: 22%

They’re not doing enough: 67%

No opinion: 5%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: How Will Session Play Out?

There’s no clarity on how the legislative session will unfold during the next two months.  Here’s the lobby corps’ best guess on how the session will play out.  27 replies…

RESULTS

1. Only passing budget related matters (budgets, FRA)…11.1%

2. Budget stuff, plus one or two priorities (PDMP, CLEANER)… 48.1%

3. Budget stuff, but special session for top priorities called around Veto session... 29.6%

4. At least a week of relatively normal session, with crazy scramble to pass dozens of bills… 3.7%

5. Some other scenario… 7.4%

Sample of Comments

·         I think there will be a special session at some point-more towards summer than fall to avoid another potential virus impact. Special will include budget and maybe 6-10 priority issues.

·         We won’t be first legislature to return to normal, but certainly won’t be the last. Vetted priority issues will find a way to pass in final weeks or special, but run of the mill bills are dead until 2021. What lobbyists lose in clients this session will likely rebound with a surge of bills and issues next session.

·         I say only Supplemental Budget and FRA. Full Budget in Late May/June just before FY2020 ends...

·         Sure the FY2021 budget has to be done by May 8th per the constitution but so what...lawsuits? - doubtful and to what end. Are the constitution police gonna draw and quarter legislators for waiting? Naw.

·         Veto would be the perfect time to do priority legislation - just before the election. Not sure the effectiveness of CLEANER at that point though.

·         Special session to start mid-May or early June. Clean isn't going to happen but Wayfair has to.

·         I actually think it will be a combination between #2 and #3. There will be a push to get a few more items accomplished likely around veto session, beyond what happens during the regular session.

·         I think along with a few key issues, the FY21 budget will be completed in special session too. While we have a constitutional deadline, there is no consequence of missing it and it’s been done before. The “real” deadline is the start of the fiscal year.

·         Hoping there is a two-week window to pass several bills beyond the top 2-3 priorities like Cleaner and PDMP, but at this point it feels more like wishful thinking than reality.

·         There's going to be down-time to go to PDMP, Cleaner while they're working through budget issues. But... I predict VERY limited scope of work ahead and NO special sessions outside of things that are COVID19 / recovery related... otherwise, it will be pretty tone-deaf as to what voters are interested in right now.

·         At some point the rank and file will get antsy enough to push leadership to come back and pass the major bills that only need one vote in the house.

Who Won the Week

WWTW will return soon.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Gaming PAC - $10,000 from Harrah's North Kansas City LLC.

True North PAC - $5,001 from Volunteer Political Fund.

Health Care Issues Committee of the Missouri Hospital Association - $25,000 from Childrens Mercy.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Theresa Garza and Matt Villa.