MOScout Daily Update: Reopening Day - April Revenues Down 54% - The Case for Galloway and more...
Reopening Day
Today is Reopening Day for the Missouri economy. As I wrote last week, this is a largely psychological undertaking. In terms of actual policy change, not a whole lot is different between this week and last week because the governor has kept the mandated social distancing measure in place.
His original statewide “stay-at-home” order allowed non-essential businesses to stay open as long as they maintained social distance of six feet between people. That still stands. All that’s been lifted is the cap of ten person gatherings.
Additionally, St. Louis and Kansas City (which account for two-thirds of the state’s economic activity) remain under their own local stay-at-home orders.
But psychologically it’s matters. And across wide swaths of Missouri it should bring greater economic activity – and a relaxation in the anxiety and frustration the epidemic has brought.
The governor will spend the day in southwest Missouri.
His schedule has him visiting CDL Electric Company and Red Racks Thrift Store in Joplin. And then on to the Bass Pro Shops and Cox Medical Center in Springfield.
Also
News Tribune reports on the “2,200 state employees who had been working remotely come back to their offices Monday.” See it here.
April Revenues
April state revenues were 54% below those in April 2019. The dramatic economic contraction is to blame, but also extension of Tax Day to July 15. That pushed a huge chuck of revenue into the next fiscal year.
So, while there’s no expectation that May will reverse this downward trend, one can cautiously hope that May won’t be as disastrous as April.
· Fiscal year-to-date, revenues are now 6% below last year’s, or $488 million behind collections at this point.
Meanwhile
One building denizen worries that legislators aren’t taking the fiscal crisis seriously. He writes, “Lost in the House omni-chaos is the ridiculousness in the Senate. The state is broke. [But] bills blow unanimously thru fiscal oversight and the Senate floor. Bipartisan fiscal irresponsibility! If fiscal notes and fiscal oversight don’t matter now, they never will.
· SB 704 costs may exceed $13 million
· HB 1768 costs may exceed $5 million
· HB 1450 costs may exceed $7 million
· SB 569 costs may exceed $6 million
· SB 632 costs may exceed $7 million”
MO Unemployment 18%??
St. Louis Business Journal reports that “more than 453,000 Missourians have filed now for unemployment since the Covid-19 crisis, state data show… The Missouri figures indicate that 14% of its workforce has filed for unemployment. The figure is based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' March civilian labor force number: 3.1 million….”
Add that 14% to the 3+% we had going into the crisis and we’re probably not too far from 20% unemployment.
Local Govs Brace For Impact
Columbia Daily Tribune reports that “Columbia city officials are planning for a 7% fall in revenues this fiscal year due to COVID-19-related cutbacks in economic activity… The city expects a 10% reduction in sales tax revenue from the decline in local business operations and the exodus of college students, a 20% reduction in licenses and permits and a 30% reduction in fines, fees and service charges.”
MOScouter: [The fiscal pain isn’t] just state level. This is the next chapter.
The Case for Galloway
One reader’s take on last weekend’s MOScout poll…
I don't think it shows as much strength as Republicans may think it does.
· First, it's a +8 Republican sample, that's not completely unreasonable, but in this environment and with Biden on the ballot, it seems a bit high. Even if we assume +6 Republican, it could make this race a lot closer than the poll indicates.
· Second, there is no information on name ID. If Galloway's name ID is significantly lower, it is essentially Parson v. a generic D. These numbers are about in line with what I would expect for Parson v. generic D. That gives Galloway a lot of room to grow.
· Third, as Gregg Keller pointed out, these numbers are essentially the same as they have been for a while. That means two things: 1) No Covid handling bump for Parson as other Governors have seen and 2) the 2 million bucks already spent by the PAC have had little or no effect.
· Galloway hasn't run a single ad and hasn't been able to do campaigning except for virtually. Parson remains hovering just about where the final Greitens numbers were in 2016 and that was with a +19 Trump victory, a good economy and no pandemic. Increased D turnout and increased D margins in the suburbs could make a really big difference in those numbers.
· Clearly Parson has the lead, and it's not an insignificant lead, but he should have been able to put this race away in the last three weeks and he hasn't done it.
Haahr and Grain Belt
Springfield News-Leader reports that a “top priority for Republicans, including House Speaker Elijah Haahr of Springfield, is reining in a renewable energy project called the Grain Belt Express.” The article notes that the anti-eminent domain language has been added to multiple bills including the utilities omnibus bill, and the judicial proceedings omnibus.
There’s been a lot of talk about Haahr’s motivation for pushing the provision. (See the eMailbag below). Some think he’s really trying to thwart another piece of legislation; others that he wants it as a signature issue for a future political campaign. But one person close to Haahr says it’s much simpler: he really believes it’s good policy. Haahr grew up on a farm in Iowa and witness first-hand the misuse of eminent domain. He’s determined not to let it happen here.
GOP OK with Voting by Mail
Politicos chuckled as this got passed around. Republicans fight voting by mail, but use it themselves?
The Executive Committee of the Republican National Committee on Thursday approved the Missouri GOP’s request to hold our Republican Congressional District Conventions by mail, rather than in-person as originally planned. “While many state and local leaders hope to begin opening Missouri in the coming weeks, it is clear that holding in-person gatherings of hundreds of people would be inadvisable in the month of May,” said Kay Hoflander, Chair of the Missouri Republican Party. “In the interest of the health and safety of our delegates and their families, we believe it is prudent to hold our Congressional District Conventions by mail.”
PSC RFP for DC Legal Services
From the RFP: The PSC has maintained its level of activity before Federal agencies and Federal courts through the use of PSC personnel based in Jefferson City, Missouri (Commissioners, technical staff, and Generals Counsel’s Office attorneys) and legal counsel based in Washington, D.C. area. On certain Federal matters, the PSC relies solely on its own staff and does not utilize legal counsel based in the Washington D.C. area.
The PSC’s use of legal counsel based in Washington, D.C. area has fluctuated some in the last several years in correlation with the nature and number of proceedings taking place in Federal agencies and Federal courts on matters that directly or indirectly affect the PSC. In the past, the PSC has engaged in this activity through a commitment of Jefferson City, Missouri based PSC employees and legal counsel domiciled in Washington, D.C. area.
The PSC relies on its Washington, D.C. legal counsel to make some filings and appearances with Federal agencies and Federal courts located in Washington, D.C. Occasionally, these filings are not finalized until the day that they must be filed.
It looks like the contracts in the past have been awarded to McCarter & English LLP and Spiegel & McDiarmid LLP
Bits
· Governor Mike Parson appointed Alan Beussink as Associate Circuit Judge for the 32nd Judicial Circuit; Scott A. Lipke as Circuit Judge for the 32nd Judicial Circuit; Kelly W. Puckett as the Grundy County Prosecuting Attorney; and William Lynch as the Newton County Prosecuting Attorney.
· Politico reports that “the $5,000 Zoom fundraiser is now a thing… With cocktail-hour events at swanky Washington restaurants on hiatus, cash-starved candidates are being forced to get creative…”
· Attorney Al Watkins makes a cameo in this tragedy at the Lake of Ozarks. See it here.
eMailbag
· Speaker Haahr is obsessed with the Grain Belt Express and seems to be tacking it on to any legislation with life. Some are worried he is using that project to hold up punitive damages that he doesn't really want to pass anyway. Regardless, we should all be working from only a certain set of bills with a narrow scope, instead - we're all having to go inside the capitol because everything seems on the table…
· The “hallway comments” section had strong Jack Nicholson/you-can’t-handle-the-truth vibes. I agree that the omnibus process is a mess and will result in bad outcomes. But lobbyists are paid by clients to advocate for legislation, not be the arbiters of good policy for all Missourians. Their complaints are rooted in losing influence, which shows how much control over the process they normally possess. Guess it’s a matter of perspective if you think that’s good; I happen to think it’s sad that lawmakers have abdicated their responsibility to do the work they were elected to do and lobbyists feel entitled to dictate law.
New Committees
Chris Hager formed a candidate committee (Chris Hager for Missouri) to run for House 34 as a Democrat.
Mark Roden formed a candidate committee (Mark Roden for Senate.com) to run for Senate 2 as a Republican in 2022. His treasurer is David Bailey.
Lobbyists Registrations
Brittany Hyatt Robbins added Strategic Capitol Consulting LLC.
Sarah Schlemeier added Next Missouri, and Missouri Civil Justice Reform Coalition Inc.
Rodney Boyd, Kate Casas, Kelvin Simmons, and Brian Grace deleted US Capital Development.
Rodney Boyd and Kate Casas deleted Renovate America Inc.
Rodney Hubbard deleted AMIkids.
Mark Habbas deleted Treehouse LLC.
Mary Stewart Nelson deleted Johnson & Johnson Health Care Systems Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jason Kander, and Ryan Clearwater.