MOScout Daily Update: Sabato Changes MO Ratings - Early Quarters - Hospitalizations Rise - Gov Signs Bills and more...

Sabato Moves MO

The momentum continues for Team Galloway…

Larry Sabato’s widely followed “Crystal Ball” moved Missouri’s electoral college rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and moved the gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.

While Missouri still seems very likely to vote Republican for president, a reduced margin could give Democrats a chance to truly compete against Gov. Mike Parson (R-MO). We’re moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican…

Still, Parson is an unelected incumbent, and sometimes those incumbents don’t have the same kind of incumbency benefit that elected ones do. Polls have shown Parson ahead, although the most recent one, by Saint Louis University/YouGov, only had him up 41%-39% over state Auditor Nicole Galloway (D)…

Still, down-ballot Democrats are often able to perform better than their party’s presidential candidates in states like Missouri. In 2012, when Barack Obama lost Missouri by nine points, Democratic incumbents won both the gubernatorial and Senate races. In 2016, under the strain of Hillary Clinton’s 19-point statewide loss, Democrats lost the open governorship, although then-Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) came within three points of unseating Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO). Perhaps if Clinton had been able to do a little bit better, Kander could have won.

It may be that in some of these red states, Biden can improve Democratic presidential numbers to look more like 2012 than 2016 -- in other words, losing by more like 10 instead of 20. That sort of improvement, if it happens, could have down-ballot consequences.

And

See the SLU/YouGuv poll here:  Trump-Biden.  Parson-Galloway.

Early Quarters

The July quarterly campaign finance deadline is Wednesday.  Here are a few interesting early filings…

·         Auditor Nicole Galloway’s PAC, Keep Government Accountable, raised nearly $700,000 and now has $1.6M cash on-hand. 

·         The Carpenter’s union has been making lots of big contributions lately.  Their July quarter shows why.  They’re flush.  $476K came into their PAC.  They reported $1.9M on-hand.

·         Similarly, Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC raised $425K and has $1.3M on-hand.

·         In Senate 7, Rep. Greg Razer raised $44K and has $102K on-hand.

·         In Senate 13, Rep. Tommie Pierson Jr. reports raising $27K and has $70K on-hand.

·         And long-time capitol denizen Harry Otto, raised $29K in his bid for Associate Commissioner Western District Cole County.

Hospitalizations Rise Above 900

DHSS’s COVID dashboard shows hospitalizations in Missouri have risen again, and yesterday were over 900.  See it here.  That’s back to where it was during the early May peak.

Reminder: Hospitalizations are a lagging indicator (things could be trending better or worse right now), but they provide an apples-to-apples comparison of how we’re doing as a state.  More testing equals more confirmed cases.  But regardless of testing, sick folks end up at the hospital today as they did in March, April, May or June.

And

Politico reports on the California governor’s plight.  With the wildcard of COVID, it feels like this could be a future article about Parson if the virus takes a bad turn here….

He now faces criticism for greenlighting bars and other social activities that contributed to the spread. He has drawn questions about why he left reopening decisions to local officials less equipped to withstand political pressure from residents. And he will increasingly get blamed by parents and teachers who thought he had a better handle on the disease.

Mandatory Masks Come to Springfield

Springfield News Leader reports: Starting Thursday, Springfield residents will now have to mask up when going out in public. After nearly five hours of testimony, the City Council late Monday night voted 8-0 to require people to wear face coverings in most businesses and public places…

The debate was fierce and the number of testimonials historic: people drew comparisons to George Orwell's dystopian novels, told stories of their lives, evoked Biblical passages and likened the coronavirus to the Titanic. One speaker compared masking mandates to the Holocaust and slavery, a point which council members called "deeply offensive" later in the meeting.  Ultimately, council members said the science supporting masking, the rising percentage of positive cases and the region's growing number of hospitalized patients made passing the ordinance a necessary step…

Campaigns Interrupted?

We’ll see if the governor gives any clarity on special session at today’s briefing. 

The rumor is that a “law and order” special session could happen at the end of the month.  That would take legislators away from the campaign trail the week before the August primary.  If true, in Senate primaries it would hurt…

·         Rep. Elaine Gannon in Senate 3.

·         Rep. Steven Roberts in Senate 5.

·         Rep. Greg Razer in Senate 7.

·         Rep. Barbara Washington in Senate 9.

·         Reps. Alan Green and Tommie Pierson in Senate 13.

·         Sen. Bill Eigel in Senate 23.

·         Rep. Jeff Shawan in Senate 25

·         Senate 27 is a wash with both candidates in the House.

·         Rep. Mike Moon in Senate 29

·         Rep. Jack Bondon in Senate 31.

·         Reps. Robert Ross and Karla Eslinger in Senate 33.

Governor Signs Bills

The governor signed the following bills….

HB 1414 – Protection of Children

HB 1467 – Retirement

HB 1682 – Health Care

HB 1896 – Controlled Substances

SB 569 – Victims of Sexual Offenses

SB 653 – Protection of Children

SB 739 – Anti-Discrimination Against Israel Act

SB 913 – Peer Review for Designed Professionals

Greitens in the News

Former governor Eric Greitens popped up again.

First, he went on Fox to talk about how defeated AntiFa.  See it here. “You have a cowardice problem, when I was governor… I was a Navy Seal…”

Then, he had pizza at Vito’s and responded to a gun shooting. See it here. “I’m a Navy Seal, I served in places like Iraq and Afghanistan…”

Lobbyists Registrations

Mike Louis terminated his lobbyist registration.

New Committees

MOWAR PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Michael Gray.

$5K+ Contributions

MBA Heritage Region PAC - $9,590 from The Bank of Missouri.

Taxpayers in Support of Public Education - $100,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Green for Circuit Judge - $25,000 from Daniel Green.

MO Chamber PAC - $15,000 from Orschlen Management Company.

Taxpayers in Support of Public Education - $71,515 from Committee in Support of Public Education.

No on 2 in August - $69,697 from Pelopidas, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to David Winton.

Congratulations

Maggie and Brian Bunten welcomed their first child August Stuart “Augie” Bunten (8lbs 5oz).  He is named after his grandfather.