MOScout Daily Update: Primary Predictions - GOP Rallies Around McCloskeys - Clergy for MedEx and more...

MOScout Pick’em

Find a spreadsheet here with my official predictions for the August primaries – every contested House and Senate race. 

The predictions largely follow what I wrote in the candidate profile PDFs from last month, but I made a few changes based on July fundraising quarters, endorsements, and campaign operations.

GOP Rallies Around McCloskeys

St. Louis City Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner announced a felony charges against gun-wavers Mark and Patricia McCloskey.

1.  A person commits the offense of unlawful use of weapons, except as otherwise provided by sections 571.101 to 571.121, if he or she knowingly…

  (4)  Exhibits, in the presence of one or more persons, any weapon readily capable of lethal use in an angry or threatening manner…

·         Governor Mike Parson had already said he’d pardon them if they were convicted.

·         Attorney General Eric Schmitt made a video, calling it political persecution.

·         And several state senate candidates in rural Republican primaries took to social media to express solidarity with the McCloskeys.

What It Means

With the economy in disarray after the coronavirus shutdown, no good clarity over the future of the COVID contagion, and a president with slipping approval ratings, Missouri Republicans are feasting on the McCloskey issue like comfort food. 

Is the 2nd Amendment still a hot button with voters amid current turmoil?  We’ll see….

Conservative Caucus Mindmeld

People talking about the Senate’s Conservative Caucus are missing the point.  The number of folks that actually “join” the CC is irrelevant.

The Conservative Caucus isn’t a political entity, for example opposing Senate leadership or special interests in hopes of supplanting that power.

The Conservative Caucus is a philosophical group, led by policy (not Eigel). 

If the CC opposes leadership, it’s because the CC believes leadership was wrong on policy (bonding, GM, etc). Not because CC is trying to replace them. 

YAL Pro-Trent?

One building denizen sees the House Majority Floor Leader race as still neck and neck between Reps. Dean Plocher and Curtis Trent.  He says that Plocher is ahead with the current members, but Trent is working the candidate field hard to find more votes.

In this view, one angle to watch is the endorsements by Young Americans for Liberty.  They endorsed in ten House primaries.  These folks may be more disposed toward Trent’s brand of conservativism than Plocher’s – just as YAL champion Rep. Phil Christofanelli is a backer of Trent.

Driving the Day: Clergy for MedEx

In advance of the August 4 statewide vote on Missouri Medicaid expansion, an interfaith panel of Amendment 2 supporters will host a virtual news conference Tuesday morning.

 The ballot measure has been endorsed by more than 300 organizations, including Missouri Faith Voices; the Missouri Catholic Conference; religious-based charitable groups; healthcare providers; and numerous churches, synagogues and houses of worship.

Confirmed participants:

Rev. Vernon Howard Jr., senior pastor, St. Mark’s Church and president, Southern Christian Leadership Conference of Greater Kansas City

Rabbi Susan Talve, Central Reform Congregation, St. Louis; 

Rev. William Dotson, St. Charles Borromeo Catholic Church, St. Charles

Dr. Khaja Hussain, chair, Islamic Foundation of Greater St. Louis…

$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Healthcare - $500,000 from Missouri Hospital Association.

Taxpayers in Support of Public Education - $100,000 from CHIPP Political Account.

Six County PAC - $35,000 from Taxpayers in Support of Public Education.

Citizens For Elaine Gannon - $14,000 from Dennis and Elaine Gannon.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Nicole Galloway For Missouri.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri - $15,000 from Missouri Leadership Committee.

Page PAC - $10,000 from Lawrence Chapman.

Friends for Rusty MacLachlan - $15,000 from Coalition for Building a Better Tomorrow.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sally Faith and Christian Morgan.