MOScout Weekender: School Start Like D-Day? - STL City Poll - Hallway on Tuesday - WWTW and more...
School Start Dilemma
The Kansas City Chamber hosted a zoom call with state education chiefs from Missouri and Kansas to share plans re-open schools. Dr. Randy Watson, Commissioner of the Kansas State Department of Education, compared planning for fall to the invasion of Normandy, "the minute we landed, the plan was worthless." Limited access to COVID tests and long wait times for results are making educators anxious.
Margie Vandeven said, "Our superintendents in Missouri are in a no-win situation right now. 50% of the people want him to come back full time, and 50% of the people want to stay remote." She stressed that decisions are local, and school leaders are doing the best they can.
Remington/MOScout Poll: STL City
Survey conducted July 29 through July 30, 2020. 827 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4% with a 95% level of confidence. MOE for Senate 5 race +/- 4.9% due to lower sample size. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Lyda Krewson’s job performance as Mayor?
Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 40%
Not sure: 26%
Q2: Candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for St. Louis Circuit Attorney are Kimberly Gardner and Mary Pat Carl. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Kimberly Gardner: 46%
Mary Pat Carl: 38%
Undecided: 16%
Q3: Candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for St. Louis City Treasurer are Tishaura Jones and Jeffrey Boyd. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Tishaura Jones: 42%
Jeffrey Boyd: 41%
Undecided: 17%
Q4: Candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Bill Haas, Megan Ellyia Green, Jeremiah Church, Michelle Sherod, Steve Roberts and McFarlane E. Duncan. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? [SD05 PORTION ONLY] [n=409]
Bill Haas: 10%
Megan Ellyia Green: 24%
Jeremiah Church: 6%
Michelle Sherod: 13%
Steve Roberts: 27%
McFarlane E. Duncan: 1%
Undecided: 19%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Election Upsets, Themes, Predictions
I abandoned the multiple-choice format this week, and asked for predictions, “locks,” upset possibilities, and themes to watch in Tuesday’s election. Here what the lobbying corps had to say:
· Ross [is a] lock, Rehder with the upset although I’m not sure Swan was ever truly the favorite.
· Upset… in 27th district - will Cape not allow the trend to end and vote for Swan. Doubt it based on the polling but Tuesday will reveal.
· It’s a bad night for the Conservative Caucus as they only re-elect Eigel. Rheder and Ross may side w/ them on some issues but they aren’t going to play the games Lembke and Eigel want to play. Think of them having a relationship with the CC as Ed Emery did.
· Not too many big surprises. Yolanda Young will be the only incumbent to get beat in a primary. [And] Medicaid expansion will fail (where did the $10M get spent?!)
· Decent night for Conservative Caucus but not a great one(Bean wins and if they lose one of moon/brattin...)
· After primary issues to watch: How aggressive Ross gets on the committee after his election, COVID COVID COVID and SCHOOL, [and] How many legislators get COVID (do we have another Mississippi)
· Medicaid Expansion is a lock to pass.
· There is no threat to the leadership elections for Schatz and Rowden.
· I think that Barbara Washington is under the radar for a lot of people. I expect her to turn a lot of heads and be a very impactful senator.
· Holly Rehder is not afraid of a fight and will have a large presence in the Senate.
· Moon voting no is a safe default for all of your whip lists. MATA is thrilled to have him.
· Megan Green wins.
Who Won the Week?
Public health messaging – There’s still some partisan shading, but it seems the acceptance of masks is becoming more widespread. A plurality of Missouri Republican primary voters now support a mask mandate.
Robert Ross - Pulls ahead in the latest MOScout poll in Senate 33.
Mike Moon – Gets some last-minute big checks from trial attorneys in a curious political plot twist.
Kim Gardner - George Soros sends $100K to a PAC supporting her re-election, MOScout poll shows her leading as Republicans jawboning apparently solidifies Democratic support.
Deb Lavender – Another reporting period, another outraising the incumbent ($46K to $24K). Plus, CL PAC spent everything on the primaries, will it reload to help Koenig?
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Healthcare - $50,000 from The Washington University.
Missourians for Healthcare - $15,530 from Missouri Hospital Association.
No on 2 in August - $6,300 from Pelopidas, LLC.
Justice for All PAC - $27,000 from Voters for Good Government.
Table Rock Conservative PAC - $15,000 from Voters for Good Government.
Table Rock Conservative PAC - $25,000 from BILL PAC.
Brattin Brigade PAC - $25,000 from BILL PAC.
Brattin Brigade PAC - $10,000 from Old Drum Conservative PAC.
Holly PAC - $16,750 from Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund.
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $102,789 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association (Chicago IL).
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,500 from Democratic Governors Association – Missouri (Washington DC).
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,500 from Democratic Governors Association - Missouri (Washington DC).
Friends of Jeffrey Boyd - $20,000 from Citizens to Elect Jeffrey L Boyd.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from United Healthcare Services Inc.
JCDC Truman PAC - $9,500 from Cleaver for Congress.
Freedom Incorporated - $6,000 from Jackson County Democratic Committee.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Shannon Weber and Bill Reiboldt.