MOScout Daily Update: GOP's Crime Play - When $$$ Don't Matter - Crancer Cameo - ECE Tax Fight and more...

GOP Focuses on Crime

Although COVID, back-to-school and the economy seem to dominate neighbor conversations, Republican candidates are focusing on crime as their top issue for the general election.

·         The pro-Mike Parson Uniting Missouri PAC released its latest ad.  It’s a contrast between Parson who’s holding a special session on the issue, and Auditor Nicole Galloway who’s silent about “left-wing radicals.”  See it here.

·         In CD-2, Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s first ad takes aim at various votes that Sen. Jill Schupp has taken to call her soft on crime.

·         And this third-party ad by Heartland Resurgence PAC calls Schupp “wrong on crime.”

Folks I talk to – Republicans and Democrats alike – think that this is the GOP’s best play given the environment: the underwater popularity of the president, along with the pandemic and the economy in turmoil.

I’m in the minority here.  I think it’s a mistake to basically ignore the number one issue on voters’ minds: getting the virus under control so we can return to normalcy.

When $$$ Doesn’t Move The Needle

The worry for Republicans is that the political environment deteriorates to the extent that their financial advantage becomes immaterial.

It could be a convention sugar-high, but Dems seem buoyed by recent polling.  

·         One source says they’ve seen polling that shows President Donald Trump trailing Joe Biden in CD-2 by 8 points.  

·         In addition to the long-standing problems Trump has had with suburban women, now Trump’s strength with older voters is diminishing.

In Missouri, Republicans have taken solace in their much greater war-chests. 

·         For example, the pro-Mike Parson PAC, Uniting Missouri, had $5M COH in their report 8-Day report. Since that time, we’ve seen $2.2M come into their coffers through large contribution filings.  $2M of that was from the Republican Governors Association.

·         Meanwhile the pro-Nicole Galloway PAC, Keep Government Accountable, had $1.7M COH in their 8-Day report and had added at least $400K more.

In other words, Parson’s PAC had perhaps $5M more COH.

But if you run into a buzzsaw environment, you can spend oodles of money and the polling doesn’t budge.  Think Congressman Ike Skelton in Obama’s 2010 midterm.

And

Remington Research has been using a +9 GOP weighting in their polling for 2020 in Missouri.  Clearly defensible as Trump won the last presidential election by 19 points.  But I also hear reasonable arguments +6-ish GOP lean. 

What will the environment ultimately look like in ten weeks?  We’ll see….

Crancer Cameos in Kayne Effort

Former Senate staffer Kit Crancer gets a mention in this reporting on Kayne West’s campaign’s effort to get on the Minnesota ballot.  See it here.

Jennifer Crancer of Chestnut Cambronne law firm had been in contact with the secretary of state’s office with procedural questions about minor party/independent petition requirements to get on the ballot… Crancer’s husband Kit Crancer was a GOP aide in the Missouri state Senate and is currently a lobbyist…

STL ECE Tax Fight Continues

Post-Dispatch reports on Rep. Raychel Proudie’s criticism of a proposed tax in St. Louis County to address early childhood education.  See it here.

A state representative has threatened to call a hearing in Jefferson City if she doesn’t get answers from St. Louis County Council Chairwoman Lisa Clancy on a proposal for a countywide sales tax to support early childhood education.

In a letter to Clancy on Wednesday, Rep. Raychel Proudie, D-Ferguson, asked to be invited, along with Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal, D-University City, to a council committee meeting regarding the bill.

Proudie said she doesn’t trust the chairwoman or the Ready By Five campaign to be transparent about the bill, which would place a half-cent sales tax on the Nov. 3 ballot. The tax would raise about $85 million a year and direct part of the funds to land acquisition, wastewater treatment and other economic development projects in or outside of the county, according to the bill. There are no mandates in the bill to lower the cost of child care, a stated priority of the campaign….

To meet ballot deadlines, the council would have to approve the bill on Aug. 25 and submit it to the Board of Elections by 5 p.m., or seek a court order to extend the deadline to Sept. 8.

McCloskeys Owe $$$

KSDK reports that “City tax records show the Central West End couple facing charges for their armed confrontation with protesters is behind on more than $24,000 in property taxes. Mark and Patricia McCloskey have risen to pubic prominence in recent months and that higher profile has also led to more scrutiny.

On Tuesday, a post on Twitter accused the couple of failing to pay their 2019 taxes on their office building on Lindell Boulevard.

5 On Your Side has confirmed with city assessor Michael Dauphin that the McCloskeys owe $20,994.70 in back taxes, $3,359.15 in interest and a penalty of $419.89 for a total amount owed to the city of $24,773.99….”

eMailbag on Axing Erby

Erby firing was abrupt? Huh? The group she founded and co-leads endorsed Jake [Zimmerman] months ago. She's lucky she lasted two weeks after E day.  Her pretending to be surprised is the most absurd thing I've read in a while…

$5K+ Contributions

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Howard and Marilyn Wood.

Central to Good Government PAC - $10,000 from Central Bank of Jefferson City.

Citizens 4 Dr. Lisa Thomas - $9,900 from Dr Lisa Thomas.

UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) - $6,000 from UAW Region 4 Exchange Account.

Lobbyists Registrations

Dave Sweeney added Cornerstone SoGro.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Trent Watson, Stacey Newman, Rose Windmiller, Wayne Goode, and Chuck Gross.