MOScout Daily Update: Two GOP Fault Lines - Three GOP Scenarios - Inaugural Day - Congrats to Chrismer and more...

The Heat Goes On

Fallout from the DC riot continues.  There are two important fault lines within the Republican Party to watch.  

Trump devotees versus all other Republicans.

·         According to Remington/MOScout polling in Missouri, “Trump Republicans” are the largest bloc of Republicans (as of December 5, things change of course) with 44% self-identifying as such.  This compares to 19% “Traditional Republicans,” 18% “Evangelical Republicans,” and 17% in other categories or undefined.  Trump Republicans tend to see the man as the Party.  Everyone else is RINO. 

·         By arguing for bigger COVID checks, tax on foreign investment, heavy-handed government regulation of technology, folks like Senator Josh Hawley were positioning themselves to carry on Trumpism after Trump left office.  But those potential policy debates (shedding a free-market bias in favor of populist policies that rely on government intervention) won’t happen.  Instead, in part because of Hawley’s drive to demonstrate devotion to Trump, the debate is centered around Trump himself.

·         Traditional Republicans were willing to put up with Trump, even if they found his style erratic and abrasive.  He brought in new voters and prevented Hillary Clinton from inhabiting the White House.  Still, the sight of Trump loyalists rushing the capitol in an attempt to overturn an election was a sign that Trumpism had run too far.  There was now a terrible realization that some portion of the population – through the social media echo chamber – actually believed “the election was stolen” and acted on it.

Republican donor base versus Trump devotees.

·         Corporate donors had previously been willing to ignore the darkside of Trump (undermining democratic norms, traditional boundaries of acceptable behavior) because they felt his policies were good for the economy and pro-business (corporate tax rate cut, deregulation in specific sectors, low interest rate / cheap dollar policy).  Some of these donors are u-turning.

Where It Goes

Three scenarios…

·         Trumpism goes the way of the Tea Party.  Maybe another cycle of people waving the Trump flag, but then is just dissipates. 

·         Trumpism takes control of the GOP Party, pushing “Never Trumpers” into a political no man’s land.

·         An actual schism with a far-right populist party under Trump, and a smaller, more moderate Republican Party. 

And

Here’s a sign of the internal tensions in the Republican Party.

GOP strongman Jeff Roe gets testy in a twitter slapfight with Anthony Scaramucci…

Weird. We know each other. You had me over, ate at your pad, sat at your table, asked me for a job with Cruz, whole show. Chill your shit and STFU. Ain’t no sedition or traitor shit going on. Your 15 minutes are finally up.

Anthony Scaramucci: Someone ask @jeffroe why two of his clients @HawleyMO and @tedcruz became seditious traitors to our country? What was the game plan all along and when did fascism become an idea of political opportunism in America?

In MO

·         Senator Josh Hawley is ground zero for this battle within the Republican Party.  He has so far struck to a Trumpian posture of refusing to apologize.

·         Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who jumped on the election fraud bandwagon filing a brief supportive of one of the president’s many failed lawsuits, is on the defense now.  See it here.

What To Watch For

I’m wondering if Trumpism is still the future of the MOGOP.  What to watch: Do any of the Republicans jockeying to run for auditor try to grab the “Trump lane?”

Talk Radio Looks in Mirror

Washington Post reports: After months of stoking anger about alleged election fraud, one of America’s largest talk-radio companies has decided on an abrupt change of direction. Cumulus Media, which employs some of the most popular right-leaning talk-radio hosts in the United States, has told its on-air personalities to stop suggesting that the election was stolen from President Trump — or else face termination.… Cumulus and its program syndication arm, Westwood One, “will not tolerate any suggestion that the election has not ended. The election has been resolved and there are no alternate acceptable ‘paths.’ ”

Find Missouri Culumus stations here.

Driving the Day: Parson Inaugural

Governor Mike Parson will deliver his inaugural speech in front of the capitol at 11AM today.  Typically, this will give us broad themes.  Specific policy priorities won’t come until the State of the State speech later in the month.

On the Lookout

Look for House and Senate Committee assignments to be rolled out this week.  And the Ethics resolution concerning Rep. Wiley Price may come to the House floor for debate.

Trap Door Committee

One interesting discussion on the Senate floor last week involved the Fiscal Oversight Committee.

The Conservative Caucus felt stung in the past that the committee could be used as “a trap door committee.”  That is, because bills with a budget impact are required to get approval from FO, it gives great power to the chairperson – and the pro tem who makes that appointment. 

The committee can be used as a tool to kill bills which otherwise have broad Senate support. 

Sen. Denny Hoskins proposed mandating a timeline for a hearing on any referred bill.  No rule change was instituted, but the use of Fiscal Oversight is on the radar of the CC.

·         In my guesses on chairmanships, I penciled in Sen. Lincoln Hough to chair Fiscal Oversight in addition to his duties as vice-chair of Appropriations.

eMailbag: Why Reining in Local Govs on COVID Doesn’t Poll Well

Let me get this straight. The Missouri Governor’s response to COVID was, “it’s not the state’s job - it’s the local government’s job.” And now the GOP in the General Assembly are saying, “it’s not the local government’s job?”   I may be naive, but that seems like a hard sell.

Registrations

Chris Lutick added UPS (United Parcel Service).

$5K+ Contributions

theLOUpac - $8,600 from Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Judy Morgan and Scott Intagliata.

Congratulations

To Rich Chrismer and Colleen Timson who married at the Cathedral Basilica of St. Louis on New Year’s Day. Chrismer is the founder of the St. Louis-based public relations firm Seen Read Heard, and an alum of U.S. Senator Roy Blunt, U.S. Senator Jim Talent and Missouri Governor Matt Blunt. Timson is a sommelier and private event coordinator. Atlas Strategy Group’s Gregg Keller was best man. Groomsmen were Catalyst founder Danny Pfeifer, LS2Group partner Jim Gwinner and KNOWiNK CEO Scott Leiendecker. State Rep. David Gregory was an usher.