MOScout Daily Update: Dogan Eyes STL Exec Race - Berry Joins Dempsey - Jackson Gets G&S Title - Stokes Returns to ShowMe and more....
First in MOScout: Dogan Explores STL Exec Run
Rep. Shamed Dogan is exploring a bid for St. Louis County Executive. Democrat Sam Page won a special election last year to finish the term of Steve Stenger who resigned amid federal corruption charges. The election is in 2022.
See an announcement video from Dogan here.
Why Dogan’s running…
· Reverse the County’s decline,
· Demonstrate respect for County’s African American population,
· Work across aisles for solutions,
· And restore faith in County government.
Dogan’s biggest challenge is overcoming the long-term trend in St. Louis County as an increasing Democratic stronghold. It voted for Biden over Trump, 61% to 37%.
The calculus of a potential Dogan campaign is based on the particulars of the election cycle…
· In 2014, Rick Stream nearly beat Steve Stenger, losing 50.3% to 49.7%.
· Dogan can improve on Stream’s totals by outperforming with African American voters.
· With an early announcement and establishment backing, Dogan could avoid a primary and focus on incumbent Sam Page.
· 2022 will be a tough year for Democrats as it’s a midterm with a Democrat in the White House.
How Trumpy Will Future GOP Be?
President Donald Trump’s denial of the election results is forcing elected Republicans to decide whether to support him one last time or accept the election results. National media sees this as a potential GOP-splitting event.
· Axios: McConnell Party vs. Trump Party… The Republican battle lines being formed in President Trump's final days — his loyalists vs. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's establishment — will shape American politics for the next four years… More broadly and more importantly, the outcome will determine if Trumpism — and its norm-smashing tactics — come to permanently define one of America's two major political parties.
· Wall Street Journal: Mr. Trump is setting up this week as a dramatic test of loyalty to him in the form of his last-ditch effort to overturn the victory of President-elect Joe Biden… Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas, who aspire to lead the Trump army whenever Mr. Trump isn’t there to do so himself, have engineered a scenario in which each of their colleagues will have to go on record either favoring or opposing the president’s effort to reverse the election… creating in the process a no-win scenario for a series of their colleagues up for re-election in 2022— Roy Blunt of Missouri… in which they have to take a stand that either infuriates Trump loyalists back home or energizes Democrats and many independents against them
· Bloomberg: Trump Fractures GOP With No-Holds-Barred Bid to Subvert Vote… Republican lawmakers in Washington are fracturing over President Donald Trump’s futile effort to persuade Congress to overturn his re-election defeat, as his allies spar with conservatives who say the Constitution doesn’t give them the power to override voters.
· New York Times: In the 220 years since a defeated John Adams turned over the White House to his rival, firmly establishing the peaceful transfer of power as a bedrock principle, no sitting president who lost an election has tried to hang onto power by rejecting the Electoral College and subverting the will of the voters — until now… he has encouraged Vice President Mike Pence and congressional allies to do anything they can to block the final formal declaration of Mr. Biden’s victory when Congress meets on Wednesday, seeking to turn what has historically been a ceremonial moment into a last-ditch showdown over the election. The idea has disturbed even many senior Republicans…
The Missouri Independent looks at how various Missouri Republicans are reacting. So far, it seems that Senator Roy Blunt and Congresswoman Ann Wagner are alone among Missouri’s federal electeds in accepting the election results. Former Sen. Ron Richard gets the closing quote: “I don’t know what [Hawley’s] up to. I guess he’s running for president.”
But
The larger questions revolve around whether Trumpism fades after Trump leaves office, or if some of its populist hallmarks persist?
· Is the Republican Party in favor of free trade or not?
· Is anti-immigration a bedrock GOP principle?
· Will the Republican Party belittle higher education and embrace anti-intellectualism?
· Are news outlets “fake news” if they’re critical?
And
Will ambitious Missouri Republican politicians continue to embrace Trumpism as the path to higher office?
Redistricting Data May Be Slow in Coming
Former St. Louisan Mike Schneider reports for AP on the delays getting census data for this year’s redistricting process. See it here.
A Trump administration attorney said Monday that the numbers used for deciding how many congressional seats each state gets won’t be ready until February… The U.S. Census Bureau has found new irregularities in the head count data that determines congressional seat allocations and the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending each year, John Coghlan, a deputy assistant Attorney General, said during a court hearing… The numbers could be pushed back even later in February from the expected Feb. 9 date, Coghlan said….
Jackson Gets Corner Office
Press release: Gamble & Schlemeier, Missouri’s largest governmental affairs consulting firm, announced David Jackson will be joining Bill Gamble, Jorgen Schlemeier and Sarah Topp as a principal in the firm, which was formed in 1996. Jackson joined Gamble & Schlemeier in 2016 as an experienced lobbyist and policy advisor with an extensive background advancing client interests and shaping policy positions while developing relationships with Missouri’s legislative and executive branches of government. In his new role, Jackson will support existing clients and develop new relationships to extend Gamble & Schlemeier’s commitment to providing the highest level of service that allows clients to win on tough issues… Jackson began his career in government relations as Missouri's youngest registered lobbyist at age 19 and has negotiated more than 150 public policy changes over the last decade… For more information about Gamble & Schlemeier, visit the firm’s website at www.molobby.com
· One MOScouter says, “Few lobbyists are able to work high-profile issues and maintain friends in every corner of the building. David is universally seen as a hard worker, and a sincere and honest broker. Great move by G&S to promote him to their leadership team.”
Berry to Dempsey
Press release: First Capitol Advisors, LLC, a new state and local government affairs firm founded by former Senate President Pro-Tem Tom Dempsey, is proud to announce Dave Berry will be joining the firm as they gear up for the upcoming legislative session in Jefferson City…
Berry has been in the government affairs industry for nearly a decade with experience lobbying on behalf of corporate, nonprofit, and small businesses across multiple industries and states.
· Hallway source: Great addition for Tom and equally good sign his firm is adding enough clients to hire help.
Stokes Back to ShowMe
Dave Stokes tweets that he’s returning to the Show Me Institute as Director of Municipal Policy. See his bio here.
Personal news here. I am excited to announce that I have rejoined @ShowMe as the Director of Municipal Policy. My time at @GRHAmo was great & I intend to still oppose tax-subsidized floodplain projects with @ShowMe. But I was presented with a great opportunity to return here so I jumped at it.
Meet Healthy Blue
Press release: Missouri Care, Inc. an Anthem company, has rebranded to Healthy Blue, a leading
managed care provider of health benefits for Missouri’s MO HealthNet (Medicaid) program reflecting new relationship with Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (Blue KC), the largest not-for-profit health insurer in Missouri.
The Healthy Blue rebranding reflects the strength of its new relationship and extends brand stability and recognition of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield name to its MO HealthNet (Medicaid) members. The name change took effect on January 1, 2021… More than 280,000 MissouriCare members who participate in the state’s MO HealthNet (Medicaid) programs received letters informing them of the change to their health plan’s name and received new Healthy Blue member ID cards with the Blue Cross and Blue Shield logo.
Lobbyists Registrations
Dave Berry added First Capitol Advisors LLC, Amazon.com Services LLC, ACCEL Entertainment Gaming LLC, People United for Privacy, and Exemplar Public Affairs LLC.
Justin Alferman added Lumicera.
Mandy Hagseth added Missouri Family Health Council.
Emily Ibach added Hy-Vee Inc.
Irl Scissors added Vantage Airport Group.
Heath Clarkston, Doug Nelson, and Kurt Schaefer added Ciox Health, All Pro Monitoring, and United Healthcare Services Inc; and deleted Missouri Health Plan Association, Kingdom Principles Inc., and Polaris Inc.
Jay Hahn added Microsoft Corporation, Expedia Group, and ACT, Inc.
Bill Shoehigh added United Healthcare Inc., Wisper ISP Inc., Naha Health LLC, Hahn O'Daniel LLC, and Ranger Power LLC; and deleted Homeaway and UnitedHealth Group.
Rich AuBuchon deleted Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri, and Allstate Insurance Company.
Gamble & Schlemeier deleted St. Louis Regional Chamber, and Missouri Small Companies Group.
Jacqueline Bardgett deleted Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri.
Claude Brown deleted Ygrene Energy Fund.
Harry Gallgher deleted Beachner Brothers.
Tracy King deleted American Concrete Paving Association, First Rule Media, Gate Way Group, Pelopidas, LLC, AT&T Missouri and its Affiliates, and ACCEL Entertainment Gaming LLC.
LuAnn Madsen deleted Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri, and Johnson County Economic Development Corporation.
$5K+ Contributions
PG PAC - $10,000 from The Penman Group.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Reps. Joe Adams and LaKeySha Bosley, Sara Lampe, and Emilee Lakin.