MOScout Daily Update: Redistricting Talk - Messy Race in JeffCo - MMJ PAC $$$ - Rex for Fitz - STL Seeks Lobbyists and more...
Congressional Redistricting Talk
Here’s where things stand on congressional redistricting…
· Republicans have reached a consensus that a 6-2 (status quo: 6 Republican districts and 2 Democratic districts) makes the most sense. Pushing for a 7-1 map could endanger their efforts via potential legal challenges.
· Republicans have found Congresswoman Cori Bush an unreliable partner in matters of even basic regional importance (for example, keeping defense dollars coming to the state), and would be willing to craft a map to help a potential Democratic challenger. However, there’s no easy way to do that.
· With Sen. Caleb Rowden eying 4-CD, it would be a major shock if Boone County is not included in CD-4.
· CD-4 (Vicky Hartzler district) and CD-7 (Billy Long district) are giving map makers the most flexibility because those congresspeople, focused on the US Senate race, aren’t making any demands.
· The zero chance that CD-2 (Ann Wagner district) isn’t fortified with Republicans making it unwinnable for Democrats.
· There’s no expectation of a special session from Governor Mike Parson.
· Republicans believe they’ll have a map ready to go by the start of session, though they imagine it will still take a few weeks to pass it.
A Mess of a Race in JeffCo
Sen. Paul Wieland is term limited in Senate 22. He’s amended his campaign committee to show that he’s seeking a countywide position in Jefferson County. I am told that he hasn’t decided on which office that might be.
In the meantime, there’s a mess of a race to replace him. It’s impossible to get a handle on the race because there are so many moving parts…
Rob Vescovo – The House speaker has shifted his ambitions from eyeing the auditor’s race to running for this state senate seat. His entry sends tidal waves through the race because his money advantage makes him the immediate frontrunner. As of last quarter, his campaign committee had $150K COH, while his PAC has another $400K+. Even more important, as speaker his presence in the race freezes lobbyist money from going to his competitors.
Dan Shaul – The operating assumption for the past year was that Shaul and Vescovo wouldn’t run against each other, that they’d found some accommodation. That understanding is suddenly asunder. Shaul shows no signs of exiting the race. In fact, he held a fundraiser just last night.
Mary Elizabeth Coleman – Coleman is hurt by Vescovo’s entry as well. She otherwise would have been about to run as the darling of the education reform and labor reform movements. But now she has to compete with Vescovo for those dollars. Coleman’s advantage in this field is that she’s the only one who’s recently had to run a hard race. She knows how to draw volunteers and grind it out on the ground. Coleman isn’t termed and could potentially run for re-election for House, although there’s no talk of that.
Becky Ruth – Ruth’s lane is the more moderate Republicans. She has that corner all to herself in this field. That means she could benefit from ed establishment support as well as big contributions from organized labor. Plus, she can pull crossover Dems. But some wonder if she’ll be lured away from the race by other opportunities. One source mentioned becoming the head of the local port authority, a good fit for the transportation chair.
Finally, the wild card in this is, of course, redistricting. There are a couple earthquake scenarios.
· One would be if Sen. Elaine Gannon is drawn into the new 22nd District. That could send all the would-be candidates scurrying to find a new path.
· The other would be if Senate 22 stays largely the same, but gets renumbered into an odd district that isn’t up for election until 2024. These candidates would then have two years of toe-tapping until the race and would likely drop their plans.
If the governor’s office wanted to serve up one final dish of revenge in their feud with Vescovo, it seems that would be the scenario they would attempt to orchestrate.
Fitz JCity Fundy
Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield are among the hosts for an October 25 Scott Fitzpatrick fundraiser at the home of Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe.
· Also listed… powerbrokers Tony Feather and Pat Thomas.
· Eyes will be on the $5K+ listing later this month to see if the Sinquefield give a boost to Fitz’ PAC.
MMJ Industry Flexes Muscle
The medical marijuana industry is flexing its financial muscles ahead of the 2022 cycle. MOCann Trade PAC, the political action committee of the Missouri Medical Marijuana Trade Association, filed its October quarterly report.
It showed $128K raised with $132K cash on-hand.
Their website says, “Fair, sensible and safe legislative, policy and regulatory development are paramount to our industry’s success in Missouri. Our ability to support candidates and causes and speak with a bold, unified voice for our industry is dependent on contributions to the PAC.”
Largest donors…
· Missouri Growth PAC - $15,000.
· Blue Arrow - $10,000.
· Great Outdoors PAC - $10,000.
· Agri-Genesis - $5,000.
· Avail $5,000.
· BeLeaf Medical - $5,000.
· Cole Engineering - $5,000.
· Flora Farms - $5,000.
· Glasshaus / Dr Blonie Dudney - $5,000.
· Good Day Farm Missouri - $5,000.
· Heya - $5,000.
STL City Issues Lobbying RFP
The City of St. Louis has issued a new RFP for lobbying services. See it here.
The one-year contract will pay $99,996.
The City now has no registered lobbyists. Previously, the City was represented by Jeff Aboussie, Jacqueline Bardgett, Claude Brown, and Tom Dempsey. Aboussie and Dempsey had stopped in June of 2020, after Mayor Lyda Krewson withdrew the application for privatizing the airport.
Nexus Group’s Rodney Boyd served on Mayor Tishaura Jones’ transition team. And they represented Jones when she was City Treasurer. They also represented the City for many years under Mayor Francis Slay. This would seem to give them the inside track on the contract. Still, it’s unknown if Nexus plans to bid on the RFP.
Sometimes established firms with robust client lists think of the city’s agenda and immediately realize the number of conflicts they will have to reconcile. And even if they can finesse those conflicts of interests, they realize the same potential conflicts will hinder their ability to land new clients as well.
The RFP states that “proximity of the firm to the City” is a factor. It was just one of many factors listed, but it may create doubts among some Mid-MO and Kansas City firms whether it was worth applying if the fix was in for a hometown firm.
Other folks who bid last time (2017): Kyna Iman; Steven Carroll; Flotron & McIntosh; and Richard Wiles & Associates and Viceroy Government Relations.
eMailbag
The amazing legal Missouri drug cartel had a slight setback with the recent court ruling that our nation allows interstate commerce, constitutionally, so out of state applicants can get licenses. Oops. Free trade and that pesky constitution and all. Not to worry. Make hay, or in this case pot, while the sun shines. Just farming as good former sheriffs and farmers, eye doctors and firefighters and their cohorts should! Now what? I know! Let’s put legalization of marijuana on the ballot and give the same under 200 people who got medical marijuana licenses for an estimated up to 4 billion dollar industry. All of this in Missouri where the ruling party hates regulations but for new slogans of CARTELS RULE and POT FOR EVERYONE. Just good ‘ole homespun straight talk Missouri values ;)
$5K+ Contributions
HealthPAC - $9,000 from Health Care Leadership Committee.
MO Energy Dev Association Gateway Political Action Committee - $20,000 from Ameren Missouri.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeremy LaFaver, and Casey Guernsey.