MOScout Daily Update: Greitens Cash Crunch - Rowden Teases Congressional Launch - UnTrumping the Primary - Springfield Eyes Vax Mandate and more...
Here Comes Rowden?
Sen. Caleb Rowden’s twitter profile picture and banner changed yesterday creating buzz that his long-expected CD-4 bid is actually about to happen. The assumption is that the kick-off to this “next chapter” in his political life will be November 8, a week from Monday.
Rowden will be joining a weakened field without any established leader. Ed Emery passed away; Rep. Sara Walsh has dealt with personal tragedy, Ryan Johnson dropped out after a brief exploration. The others – Kalena Bruce and Taylor Burks – aren’t well-known.
But Rowden faces a substantial hurdle. He’s taken “bad” votes and will likely be seen as the moderate – not a good lane for a Republican primary.
Even worse, he’s temperamentally measured, an unTrumpian demeanor in a party which now seems to reward bombast. (More on this below.)
Inside The US Senate Numbers: Greitens Broke?
I had a few campaigns send me their analysis of the US Senate numbers with some intriguing numbers, so I decided to run my own crude analysis. I simply downloaded the contributions from the FEC and did some spreadsheet tallies. It’s “crude” because it’s only itemized individual contributions.
Out-of-State Money
Mark McCloskey’s campaign is relying extensively on national fundraising appeals to fund his campaign, as does Eric Greitens. While Eric Schmitt’s money is coming largely from within the state. I didn’t include PAC money in my spreadsheet. If I did, the two DC incumbents would show even greater reliance on out-of-state money. Billy Long’s PAC money (about $125K) would raise his out-of-state percentage to 37-ish%. while Vicky Hartzler’s PAC money ($263K) would put her around 40%.
On the Democratic side, the fundraising operations of Lucas Kunce and Scott Sifton couldn’t be more different. Kunce is running a national campaign while Sifton’s money is coming almost entirely from within the state.
These numbers actually understate Kunce’s national fundraising. A lot of small donations now flow through third party online portals (ActBlue for Dems, WinRed for GOPers). If they are below reporting requirements, they aren’t broken down by geography. Kunce has raised over a $1 million dollar in unitemized contributions, most of it through ActBlue. That’s not included in this analysis.
Out-of-State Money
Greitens 65.6%
Hartzler 24.9%
Long 24.3%
McCloskey 80.4%
Schmitt 19.4%
Kunce 71.1%
Sifton 8.4%
General Election Cash
McCloskey is alone among the candidates in not taking a single penny of money that’s earmarked for the general election. Other candidates have allowed individuals to “max” out with a primary contribution of $2,900 and then add another $2,900 to it for the general. While it enlarges their fundraising totals, it’s not money that can be spent in this hot primary. The two cash on-hand leaders – Hartzler and Schmitt – have substantial general election money in their coffers, but they’re still cash leaders without it.
The Greitens’ campaign, however, appears to have been running on empty at the quarter’s end. They reported on $200K on-hand, with $143K in debt. It now appears that the debt was because they couldn’t pay their bills. Greitens has $171K in general election money in the bank he can’t use. His effective cash on-hand was just $30K. That explains the costs that were incurred but not paid.
General Election Cash
Greitens $171,540
Hartzler $323,862
Long $125,900
McCloskey $0
Schmitt $572,877
Kunce $53,950
Sifton $52,900
UnTrumping the Primary
It’s undisputed that Donald Trump is extremely popular in today’s Republican Party. But if you’re in a primary with three or four others all competing to emulate Trump, can you win by being conservative but “unTrumpy?” We may find out this cycle.
· In the US Senate race… from yesterday’s Politico article: [Vicky Hartzler’s] campaign is testing whether fully aligning with the MAGA message is crucial to succeeding in the race. In her first ad, which is airing on Fox News, Hartzler never mentions Trump.
· In CD-4: Sen. Caleb Rowden will enter the race, it’s hard to see him going full Trump.
· In CD-7: Dr. Sam Alexander released a bio video yesterday. One supporter: “Dr. Sam is not bombastic… But with plenty of candidates in the race trying to out Trump one another, we expect that message to stand out. He’s soft spoken and humble, but rather than try and dress him up we expect that authenticity to stand out in a cycle dominated by Trumpiness.”
Mayors Get Together
Press release: This Thursday and Friday, October 28 and 29, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas will visit Mayor Tishaura O. Jones in St. Louis for a two-day tour touching on important issues for both cities and emphasizing the importance of collaboration. This visit is a continued effort by both administrations to promote regionalism among leaders in the state of Missouri and share best practices for public safety, equitable development, and more.
Springfield Eyes Vax Mandate for New Hires
Springfield News Leader reports that “A spokesperson confirmed Friday the city of Springfield is considering mandating that new hires be vaccinated against COVID-19.”
· As of now, there is no widespread COVID-19 vaccine requirement to work for the city, and spokesperson Cora Scott said no final decision has been made about whether one will be instituted in the future.
· A vaccine requirement for new hires could be especially precarious when considering the police department. In Springfield, 49 percent of the police force is vaccinated against COVID-19. Officer Andy Zinke, president of the Springfield Police Officers Association, said the union (which represents officers with the rank of sergeant and below) would oppose any COVID-19 vaccine requirement, citing the nationwide struggle to recruit new officers. Springfield had 41 vacant officer positions as of Thursday.
Flags At Half-Staff for Hannegan
Governor Mike Parson ordered that U.S. and Missouri flags be flown at half-staff at all government buildings statewide on Wednesday, October 27, 2021, from sunrise to sunset in honor of Missouri State Representative Thomas P. Hannegan.
$5K+ Contributions
IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri - $35,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Interested in Registration and Education PAC.
Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Excel Utility Contractors.
Missouri American Water Company Employees Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Flynn Drilling Company.
MO Chamber PAC - $7,000 from AT&T.
Lobbyists Registrations
Sean Diller deleted Heartland Strong Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Kurt Schaefer, Stacey Jones Preis, and Jay Houghton.